The big announcement on the Khashoggi affair that Trump had promised last week ended up being nothing of the sort. Seventeen Saudi nationals were sanctioned for their role in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. That news was overshadowed by the announcement of the Saudi public prosecutor that the kingdom would seek the death penalty for five of the accused. Then that news was overtaken the following day, Friday, by the CIA's conclusion that crown prince Mohammed bin Salman was to blame for the plot to assassinate and dismember Khashoggi in Istanbul.
Yesterday, in response to questions about the CIA conclusion, Trump promised another really big announcement, this one in two days.
The resignation Friday of the National Security Council official responsible for the Persian Gulf is a strong tell that in two days the Trump White House will shield the crown prince from punishment for his role as mastermind of the Khashoggi hit. Some form of window dressing will be presented as suitable reprisal for a rogue operation right under MbS's nose, and then the administration will turn the page.
The problem is that it won't be possible to turn the page.
On the Khashoggi affair Trump has made the slight but nonetheless discernible (and momentous) shift from rope-a-dope to cover-up. He's going from a position of "Okay, let's wait and see." to "The crown prince is not the guilty party. Let's move on."
The Western media monopoly will cry "Huzzah!" and flambé the administration. Khashoggi news already regularly tops the Reuters world news feed; The New York Times publishes a new substantive report seemingly daily. The paper's video documentary is a compelling indictment that the Khashoggi hit was so elaborate it must have had state sanction. And remember, in Saudi Arabia the royal family is the state.
The other prime player who will block any Trump move to change the subject is Erdogan. What got lost last week is David Kirkpatrick's story "Turkey Calls for International Inquiry in Khashoggi Killing."
Even if Trump attempts to cover-up for the crown prince Turkey is prepared to go to the United Nations. Then what the does the U.S. do, vote against a fact-finding commission? After its ruckus over the Skripals?
Then there is congress. To avoid a vote on U.S. support for the war on Yemen, the GOP, which controls the house for a couple more months, tucked it into a bill removing the gray wolf from the endangered species list. It narrowly passed. This gives you an idea how toxic anything having to do with al-Saud is now. While in the senate you have Bernie Sanders crusading against U.S. involvement in Yemen.
When the new Democratic house takes over in January there will be no way to stop it from invoking the War Powers Act. That's why there is a push now by the Saudi-UAE-U.S. coalition to take Hodeidah before the end of the year. That's why peace talks were called off until the end of the year.
By fronting for crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Trump is about to make things exponentially worse for himself and the House of Saud.
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