Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Assange New-World Bound? + Poroshenko a Bust + a Month of Brexit Scaremongering

Plainly the government of Ecuador is releasing lies about Assange to curry favour with the security establishment of the USA and UK, and to damage Assange’s support prior to expelling him from the Embassy. He will then be extradited from London to the USA on charges of espionage.
Another must-read is Moon of Alabama's "Ukraine - Poroshenko Launched Clash With Russia To Gain Dictatorial Powers - He Failed":
Poroshenko could start a provocation elsewhere. He could attempt to reconquer the Donetzk airport. But while he might itch for losing more fights, a full blown war is out of question. Kiev's army is low on morale and would be defeated within days. 
Poroshenko's rule was catastrophic for the Ukraine. In several cities the central heating and warm water supply is broken. Ten-thousands will have to freeze during the winter, some of them to death. Since Poroshenko came to power millions of able Ukrainian workers have fled or work abroad, most of them to Russia. The most industrialized regions are in firmly in rebel hands. Most of the population is poor, the bureaucracy is utterly corrupt and the country is practically bankrupt. 
There will likely be dozens of corruption cases brought up against Poroshenko himself as soon as he loses power. If he is smart he will flee the Ukraine the very day his term ends.
With regards to Brexit, the campaign to frighten people over the consequences of not accepting May's withdrawal agreement has begun in earnest. There is no support for the withdrawal agreement in parliament. Nonetheless the next several weeks will be spent whipping up terror over a crash-out.

The scenario that Yves Smith outlines is a no vote in parliament followed by an adverse market reaction and then a re-vote which results in passage. It's fanciful.

The one bright spot that I can see is that after May fails to secure passage the second time around she will have to stand down. New elections will be called. Smith thinks that this is irrelevant in terms of the Brexit timeline; that a crash-out will commence. But I don't think so. I think the EU would have to grant the UK time to form a new government which could present its Brexit plan to parliament.

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