Brexit Deal is DOA in Parliament

The last couple of days there has been a distinct shift in the prestige press's reporting of prime minister Theresa May's quixotic attempt to move her Brexit deal with the EU across the finish line.

Case in point is the outlandish "A Brexit Compromise Nobody Likes: What Could Be More English?," by Ellen Barry, which appeared on Thanksgiving Day. Based on the Tories' inability to muster a vote of confidence, combined with an overnight flip in May's standing in the opinion polls, mainstream organs of opinion are now fluffing the possibility that the Brexit agreement, which the EU ratified today, can clear the House of Commons.

An example of this is today's principal New York Times story on the topic, "U.K. and E.U. Leaders Clinch Brexit Divorce Terms," by Stephen Castle and Steven Erlanger. First, from the opening, and, then, the concluding paragraph:

The journey has been long and tortuous for both sides, and the drama is hardly over. Mrs. May must still get approval for the deal — a dense, legally binding divorce settlement and a set of political promises for Britain’s future relationship with the bloc — from an outspokenly unhappy British Parliament.

[snip]

No one in Brussels knows any better than people in Britain about what is coming next, but there is considerable hope that somehow Mrs. May will pull it off.

This isn't reporting; this is poppycock. Call it "public diplomacy," propaganda, information warfare, whatever, it is bullshit, which any cursory web surf will quickly reveal.

The math hasn't changed in parliament: Corbyn, leader of Labour, is opposed; Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, is opposed; Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Arlene Foster is opposed (the DUP is May's coalition partner). May's Brexit deal is dead on arrival.

The idea shared by May and Brussels is for one last game of chicken -- it's the May-EU withdrawal agreement, or crash-out; take it or leave it -- with the fervent hope that the House of Commons buckles. As explained in Barry's story, this fanciful scenario unfolds like this:

And many in Westminster began speaking confidently of a new wrinkle. Mrs. May might not muster enough Parliamentary support to pass the bill in mid-December, according to Rob Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester. But if her government survives long enough to put it to a second vote, he said, she has a good chance of getting it through.

“The groups that dislike it will realize that there is no way of getting their preferred outcome,” he said. “The deal could be as popular as leprosy with the public and that strategic calculus would not have changed one iota.”

This is zombie neoliberalism: the shambling walking dead rotting carcass of a political-economic paradigm which Western leaders refuse to put down.

May's government will come down though if it loses the Brexit vote next month. And that's truly something to celebrate.