May's Days are Numbered

The text of the draft Brexit deal has not been made public. Prime minister Theresa May will present it to her cabinet shortly. The question is how many of her ministers will resign when the text reveals what most suspect, what Yves Smith has termed a "half-pregnant Brexit": a customs arrangement with the European Union which maintains duty- and quota-free access along with EU regulations on competition, state subsidies, as well as adherence to European Court of Justice rulings; and there will be some sort of Irish backstop, which for all intents and purposes will bind Northern Ireland closer to the Republic of Ireland.

No one likes this deal. Tory "Leave" ultras, "Remain" neoliberals, Corbyn Momentum Labourites, Ulster unionists all have promised to reject May's draft if it contains what people think it does.

Stephen Castle captures the prevailing sentiment at the end of his story "Britain and E.U. Agree on a Draft Deal for Brexit":

One influential pro-Brexit lawmaker, Steve Baker, said on Tuesday that about 50 pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers might oppose Mrs. May’s deal.

“What the prime minister is likely to ask us to support is not merely imperfect. It is to put us into a position that is worse than Article 50, worse than E.U. membership — less of a voice, more difficult to escape from.”

“It’s not kind of a grubby compromise that we can put up with and sort later,” he added. “It’s worse than membership.”

Even if May can weather this cabinet meeting without a revolt, and she is then able to present the draft to the EU for a vote at the end of the month, it will still have to clear the British parliament after that, and, from what I can tell, there's no way that happens.

For one, May's coalition partner, Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, is opposed. According to The New York Times' helpful "Brexit Draft Deal: Moment of Truth for May as U.K. Cabinet to Meet":

The prime minister’s Conservative Party does not have a majority in Parliament, so her government relies on Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which voiced opposition to the deal even before it was made public.

The D.U.P.’s leader, Arlene Foster, made clear in her statement late Tuesday that she was not happy with the emerging deal. She was traveling to London on Wednesday.

Jeffrey Donaldson, a senior D.U.P lawmaker, went further, telling the BBC on Wednesday that what he had heard of the draft Brexit deal “undermines the constitutional and economic integrity” of the United Kingdom, and warning that he was not afraid of precipitating a general election by opposing the plan.

I don't have an organic sense of the British parliamentary system, but it seems to me that if the DUP is unhappy with the draft Brexit deal once it's made public the Orangemen can collapse May's government even before the deal reaches a parliamentary vote.

Brexit was never about economics; it was always about politics and the Conservative Party's effort to staunch the bleeding caused by UKIP's Little Englanders.

Just as the road is running out on Trump's "Lost Cause" nationalism, so too are the days numbered for Theresa May and her attempts to muddle through with a Brexit vote she inherited.