Consensus opinion is tomorrow the Democrats will win the House; the Republicans, the Senate. Nothing in the last month -- the pipe bombs, a synagogue shooting or the immigrant caravan -- has changed this overall picture.
Trump has made the midterms about himself, which, while helping the GOP hold the Senate (by boosting rural turnout), guarantees strong Democratic participation at the polls, something we saw numerous times in various special elections over the last year-plus.
The Democrats don't have a unifying set of policies or a unified leadership, but what they do have is a "Never Trump" message. In this case, "No" should be enough. Much has been made about Trump's rock-solid 40% support, but the other side of that coin is the rock-solid national majority that disapproves of Trump.
These midterms are the first national election since the Trumpocalypse of 2016. Not only is Trump tilting against a generic ballot that favors Democrats (albeit one that has narrowed substantially), but he is also tilting against history. In the last century, the president's party almost always loses seats. The two exceptions were FDR during the dark days of the Great Depression and George W. Bush post-9/11. Trump is not in the same category of super-history. But it's not for lack of trying.
I live in a very blue bubble. Voter registration is up in the King County. This is a good sign because, for the most part, King County determines which way the state votes. There is a modest carbon "fee" on the statewide ballot, which has been a magnet for millions of dollars in Big Oil attack ads.
There is also a competitive race in the suburban 8th CD that has been held by the GOP for decades. My guess is that if the Democrats can capture the district it will mean that Trump is routed.
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