Brexit Chickens Come Home to Roost

“It is ... mathematically impossible to get this deal through the House of Commons. The stark reality is that it was dead on arrival,” Conservative lawmaker Mark Francois said.

The first comment to make about the crisis that has erupted for Theresa May's government following the meeting of her cabinet yesterday to approve a draft Brexit agreement is how sunny the first stories were. I was looking at the Reuters world news site yesterday afternoon and the message was, "What a triumph for May!"; "Rule, Britannia!"; "Pass me the orange marmalade!" Stephen Castle's report for The New York Times, "Brexit Deal Gets Backing From Theresa May’s Cabinet," is a good example:

LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain faced down hard-line critics Wednesday and won the support of a jittery and divided cabinet for a plan to quit the European Union, preserving her push to avert an economically damaging rupture with the bloc in March. 

For Mrs. May, frequently criticized as wooden and lacking in strategic thinking, the victory represented a rare validation of her leadership. It also provided a glimmer of light at the end of the Brexit tunnel.

It was all bullshit.

This morning Castle performs an abrupt about-face in "Two U.K. Cabinet Ministers, Including Chief Brexit Negotiator, Quit," so much so a reader could sustain a whiplash injury:

LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain faced a deep political crisis on Thursday after two cabinet ministers quit her government, including Dominic Raab, her chief negotiator on withdrawal from the European Union — decisions that threaten to wreck not only her plans for the exit but also her leadership.

The surprise resignation of Mr. Raab on Thursday morning followed a tense, five-hour meeting of the cabinet the previous day, during which ministers reluctantly agreed to sign off on Mrs. May’s draft plans for departure from the European Union, a process commonly known as Brexit.

Mr. Raab’s departure was not only unexpected but also deeply damaging to Mrs. May’s authority, increasing the risk that she might face a leadership challenge from rebel lawmakers inside her own Conservative Party.

Shortly after his announcement, Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, resigned, adding to the turmoil.

Reuters, which is where the quote at the top of the post originates, is much the same this morning: "British PM May battles to save Brexit deal as ministers quit." The Guardian is running a live blog.

As ministerial resignations multiply, a confidence vote will likely take place. May needs the support of majority of Conservative Party MPs to survive. She might get it because there is no clear candidate to succeed her.

Yves Smith susses out the details in her post "Brexit: Brexit Minister Raab Resigns; May to Face Hostile Parliament. Update: Two More Resignations, Bringing Total So Far to Four, Now Six."

What's fueling the revolt is all that doom and gloom about what was in the draft agreement proved to be true -- a customs union that amounts to "vassalage"; an Irish backstop which effectively separates Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom -- and what's worse, the agreement, rather than being merely transitional, acting as a bridge while Britain and the EU negotiate a fuller understanding, appears to be more permanent than anticipated.

It's obvious that May's coalition government is cooked. It's past time for new elections.