The Goal: Roll Back Arab Spring, Reconfigure Sykes-Picot, Reduce Iran, Secure Greater Israel

As large protest marches take place throughout Egypt today despite the imposition of martial law after the Wednesday massacre of pro-Morsi supporters by the coup government, it is illuminating to read the story by Mark Landler and Peter Baker, "His Options Few, Obama Rebukes Egypt’s Leaders." It is a snapshot of a helpless giant whose fecklessness and drift is explained away by its power-broker elite as a rational course of action -- which it is in a corrupt, "pay-to-play" system. While there are noises within the Obama administration that all options are still on the table, including obeying the law and denying $1.3 billion in aid to General Sisi's military junta, don't expect anything more than the cancellation of joint exercises with the Egyptian armed forces that Obama announced yesterday from his vacation retreat:

Given the deep schism in Egypt, this official said, the White House is still skeptical that cutting off aid would compel the generals to return the country to a democratic transition. And it could destabilize the region, particularly the security of Israel, whose 1979 peace treaty with Egypt is predicated on the aid.

For weeks, officials from Israel and several Arab countries have pressured the administration to maintain the flow of aid. If it were cut off, they said, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates would move quickly to make up the shortfall — and then some. 

Saudi Arabia and the emirates pledged $8 billion in grants and loans to Egypt’s post-Morsi government last month: $5 billion from Saudi Arabia in grants and loans; $3 billion from the emirates. That is more than enough, analysts say, to offset any cutoff from the United States, even if the two countries do not fulfill their entire pledges. 

Shutting off the aid spigot now would not have an immediate impact on the Egyptian military, defense officials say, because this year’s military assistance has already been delivered. Beyond money, Arab officials worry that a rupture between Washington and the Egyptian military would further erode American influence in a country that has historically been a bellwether in the Arab world, and would open the door to rivals like Russia or China. 

“If the aid gets cut, you can be sure that Putin will arrive in Cairo in two or three months,” one senior Arab official said. “And he will give aid with no strings attached.”

So there you have it. To head off the predatory, baleful Vlad Putin, as well as to secure cooperation with Israel, not to mention overflight rights and access to the Suez Canal, the United States will continue to pay the Egyptian military.

A robust refutation of this lazy, Washington-insider point of view can be found on New York Times Opinion Page in a piece written by Amr Darrag, Mohamed Morsi's minister of planning and international cooperation:

First, this is a battle between those who envision a democratic, pluralistic Egypt in which the individual has dignity and power changes hands at the ballot box and those who support a militarized state in which government is imposed on the people by force. 

Second, this coup has already sent Egypt back into the dark ages of dictatorship — with tight military control over both state-owned and private media, attacks on peaceful protesters and journalists, and detention of opposition leaders without criminal charges or due process. 

Third, there is no promise that General Sisi can make that he hasn’t already betrayed. He took an oath to uphold the Constitution; he suspended the Constitution. He took an oath to loyally serve in the government; he toppled that government. And in the classic doublespeak of military juntas, he loudly condemned the opposition for dealing with foreign powers, while he was actively seeking the help of Western diplomats as well as the Persian Gulf sheikdoms that largely financed his coup. 

Through all this, the United States government has pleaded impotence. Hardly a day goes by without some press officer, analyst or public official pushing the idea that Washington’s influence really isn’t that decisive with the Egyptian generals. This cop-out simply won’t do. America had influence and still does. It was an American official, not an Egyptian one, who informed President Morsi’s staff of the finality of the coup decision.

There is only one way forward in Egypt today. The legitimate government must be restored. Only then can we hold talks for a national reconciliation with every option on the table.

Iraq is being terror bombed daily by Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham. A massive bombing took place in a Hezbollah neighborhood in Beirut yesterday. There is a region-wide war being waged in the Middle East. The goal is to reconfigure Sykes-Picot, roll back the Arab Spring, reduce Iran and secure a Greater Israel. To this end look for, eventually, direct U.S. military involvement.