Don't Believe the Disinformation Campaign, West Does Have Leverage on Egypt

The New York Times gets it right this morning in the unsigned editorial "False Choices on Egypt":

President Obama’s muted chastising of the generals and his indecisive reaction to the slaughter does not inspire confidence. Instead of wringing their hands, administration officials should suspend the $1.3 billion in annual American military aid to Egypt — including the delivery of Apache helicopters — until the military puts the country on a peaceful path. 

Some say the aid can easily be replaced by the gulf states, but they have often promised aid — for the Palestinians, for instance — and failed to deliver, whereas the United States has reliably provided Egypt with an estimated $60 billion over three decades. 

Long term, Egypt cannot subsist on handouts and needs to develop a real economy to provide jobs, education and other opportunities to its people. That is the road to true stability and will require tourism and foreign investment. But that cannot happen in a country in perpetual turmoil with a repressive military intent on obliterating its adversaries. The United States should not be complicitous in this unfolding disaster.

Right now the regressive Gulf Arab monarchies and Israel might be ascendant with the news of the imminent release of former dictator Hosni Mubarak and the jailing of Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader Mohamed Badie, but, as pointed out in the NYT editorial, a huge country like Egypt cannot subsist on foreign aid. And as Steven Erlanger points out in his story, "European Union Sets Emergency Session on Suspending Aid to Egypt," on the upcoming meeting Wednesday of EU foreign ministers to craft a response to the brutal crackdown engineered by General Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi:

European nations are Egypt’s biggest trading partner, according to the Egyptian statistics office. The trade volume between Egypt and the European Union reached almost 24 billion euros in 2011 (then $34.5 billion), compared with $8.2 billion with the United States. And European nations sell about $400 million a year in military equipment to Egypt. 

Last year, the bloc and its member countries pledged a combined 5 billion euros ($6.7 billion) in multiyear loans and aid for Egypt.

The leverage that the West has with its trade, tourism and private investment is enormous. For all those elites who, like Steven Simon, executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-United States, argue that "America Has No Leverage in Egypt," what they're really doing is aligning themselves with the political objective of rolling back the Arab Spring and restoring Mubarakism. The Saudis and Israelis and their supporters in the West cannot conceive of an alternative to a future dominated by political Islam other than by a headlong flight to the past.

The only way that the Mubarak loyalists, sheikhdoms and Likudniks can pull off their counter-revolution is through Western quiescence. Let's see what happens in Brussels tomorrow. The United States, because of the outsize influence of the Saudis and Israelis in American politics, has sidelined itself. Obama, true to his entire presidential performance so far, has proven to be a diffident leader. Rob Nordland has a story this morning, "Saudi Arabia Promises to Aid Egypt’s Regime," that doesn't bode well for those of us expecting Europe to stand tall for social democracy. Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal crowed after his meeting this past weekend with president Francois Hollande that he had straightened the French out and that they were now in the coup camp:

“The kingdom stands with Egypt and against all those who try to interfere with its domestic affairs,” King Abdullah said Friday in a televised speech. . . . 

Within hours of the king’s speech on Friday, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal, was on his way to Paris, where he said the French president, François Hollande, supported the Egyptian generals’ road map. That seemed to contradict the statements of other European countries condemning the new government for failing to control the violence. 

Back in Saudi Arabia by Monday, the prince boasted that France had come around to his country’s point of view because of “truths and not assumptions.” It was unclear, however, if the French government shared that interpretation.

As usual David Kirkpatrick's daily reporting from Cairo shines bright. Check out his story today, "Egypt in Tumult as Court Orders Mubarak Freed," to read another fine example of reliable writing. He is trustworthy.