Awaiting Cairo Crackdown + Barack Obama, Poltroon

A crackdown that appeared likely last weekend seems even more so this weekend. Ramadan is coming to a close and the coup government has declared that it is done negotiating. David Kirkpatrick, back on the job in Cairo, has the story, "Egypt Government Hints at Force to End Large Sit-Ins":

But after an urgent meeting of Egypt’s interim cabinet, Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi said Wednesday on state television that the decision to clear the sit-ins was “irreversible.” He said that the clearing could begin any time, and he warned the Islamists against any resistance. 

The government has already authorized the police to use force to carry out such an order. Security forces have detained Mr. Morsi, jailed scores of Islamist leaders and killed a total of more than 140 of the ousted president’s supporters in two mass shootings at demonstrations seeking his reinstatement. 

But talks aimed at resolving the impasse have nonetheless continued behind the scenes, with envoys from the United States, the European Union, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates all meeting with officials on both sides to broker some resolution. 

The Western envoys have said that they sought to persuade the military’s government to release the Islamists while at the same time persuading the Muslim Brotherhood to participate in a renewed democratic process despite its forced ouster.

As I argued at the end of last week, dislodging sit-ins are difficult and messy. The coup government risks greater instability by trying to clear the encampments; but, nonetheless, this looks like the direction el-Sisi et al. prefer to be headed. And while you might think that this crackdown will make it more difficult for the Obama administration to maintain the $1.5 billion in aid to Egypt, I don't see anything changing. The only thing in flux is Obama's standing, both globally and at home. Events of the last few months have exposed him to be a truly feckless leader. There's a telling quote in today's story, "Ties Fraying, Obama Drops Putin Meeting," by Peter Baker and Steven Lee Myers. I don't know if it is accurate, if Putin does indeed despise Obama, but it's worth repeating:

Andrei A. Piontovsky, a political analyst, said the cancellation underscored a visceral personal enmity between the two leaders. “Putin openly despises your president, forgive my bluntness,” he said. 

He added that Russia sensed weakness in Mr. Obama that could lead to more dangerous confrontations. 

“The fact is the relations were completely broken for a very long time,” he said. “The main raison d’être of Putin’s policy now is to make an enemy of the United States.”

Reasoning from a Russian perspective, the thinking has got to be its time to wash our hands of this guy. He's duplicitous, he can't deliver on anything he says, and he's unwilling to stand up to the bellicose, regressive forces in his administration. And along with Russia eventually goes the majority of Americans who supported Obama. The next several years are going to be painful for Democratic voters as they come to accept that Obama has been a failure, that he has broken promises repeatedly and that almost nothing has been delivered. As it stands now, as I score it, he has the troop withdrawal from Iraq, a modest stimulus bill during the financial crisis and scrapping the missile defense system in Eastern Europe to his credit. I'm reserving judgment on the Affordable Care Act. These are all first-term accomplishments. And while they are commendable, they fall far short of the type of systemic change that voters hoped for in electing Obama.