Egypt's Coup Government Ascendant

At this point it doesn't look good for the Muslim Brotherhood -- and the possibility for any type of democratic government in Egypt for that matter. Following yesterday's news that the Brotherhood's supreme guide, Mohamed Badie, was taken into custody (who knows when he'll be seen or heard from again?) David Kirkpatrick and Mayy El Sheikh have an excellent story in today's paper, "An Egypt Arrest, and a Brotherhood on the Run," laying out the free fall of the premiere organization of political Islam. 

A couple of things struck me. First, the military junta is moving forward with plans to ban the Brotherhood from politics:

The new government’s drive to suppress the Islamists appeared to gain momentum on Tuesday. State news media reported that the government was bringing back a Mubarak-era constitutional provision barring political parties based on religion. That potentially would outlaw Islamist parties, including the Brotherhood’s political arm — the biggest vote-getter in recent elections.

Next, the Brotherhood's tough talk from the days of the sit-ins of a "million martyrs" and constant huge street demonstrators has been rescinded in the face of el-Sisi's brutal crackdown:

Devastated by the assault, the group has backed off its vow of a “million martyrs,” ending its six-week campaign of organizing demonstrations and sit-ins against the military takeover that ousted its ally, Mr. Morsi. Instead, on Tuesday, the group began calling Morsi supporters to organize their own “decentralized” protests. 

More street demonstrations or sit-ins “are always an option if the coup leaders’ frenzy goes down,” Mr. Haddad said, but the Brotherhood “held the banner for 48 days” and “it is with the Egyptian people now.” 

The Brotherhood’s retreat is a victory for General Sisi. At least for now, it appears that his new government’s brutal force has begun to take control of the streets of the capital. But in the long term, the Brotherhood retains deep roots in Egypt, especially in the countryside, and by forcing it back underground the military-backed government virtually eliminated any hope of fulfilling its public pledges to include it in the political process. 

It has also foreclosed the chance to use the Brotherhood’s more pragmatic leadership to channel and control the broader and more fractious Islamist movement, as Mr. Mubarak once did. And it risks further alienating a generation of Islamists, or driving some to violence. 

It was in Egyptian jails during earlier crackdowns, historians say, that Brotherhood members disillusioned with its nonviolent politics nurtured the ideology that now guides Al Qaeda.

Finally, as a sign of depth of the coup government's crackdown, even the West's favorite liberal, and a crucial ally of the military junta in taking down Mohamed Morsi, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, is on the run:

The government also began investigating charges, filed by a law professor, against Mohamed ElBaradei, the liberal former diplomat who resigned as interim vice president last week in protest against the mass shootings. 

The charges of “betraying the public trust” would carry only a small penalty, and Mr. ElBaradei had left for a home in Vienna. But along with a stream of state-media attacks against him, the case sent a signal that the government would prefer he stayed in Vienna and was a warning to other dissidents as well.

So for the time being the military government has a lot to crow about. Outside of Cairo there is still plenty of unrest, but the Muslim Brotherhood has not able to answer the coup government's ruthless violence.

For an excellent story about the significant leverage the U.S. government has over the Egyptian state in the form of the $1.3 billion in annual military assistance read Eric Schmitt's, "Cairo Military Firmly Hooked to U.S. Lifeline." Fifteen percent of the money goes to spare parts and maintenance. The Egyptians never developed the capability to service the weapon systems:

What Egypt’s generals fear most is the cutoff of hundreds of millions of dollars in mundane but essential maintenance contracts that keep the tanks, fighter jets and helicopters running, American officials and lawmakers said. In the past, maintenance costs have represented roughly 15 percent of total American military aid to Egypt, according to the Government Accountability Office. 

“The spare parts and maintenance of this military equipment that we’ve given the Egyptians is important to their capabilities,” Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, told CNN on Sunday. 

Or as Robert Springborg, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., and an expert on the Egyptian military, put it this week, “Without that sustainment money, planes won’t fly and tanks won’t drive.”

**** 

Exasperated American military officials have also watched in dismay as Egypt has failed to invest in its own mechanics and logistics networks, as was originally envisioned, as well as in F-16 pilot training.

Egyptian F-16 pilots receive only a quarter of the flight training hours of American pilots, Mr. Springborg said. Maintenance programs have been left to American contractors. 

“It was originally intended that Egypt would develop its own sustainment capability,” Mr. Springborg said. “One of the sad parts of the program is that this didn’t happen.”

Despite this tremendous leverage, Obama, who has a poor track record of taking on vested "deep state" interests, is unlikely to suspend the aid. It's too important to military contractors spread out over several key electoral battleground states:

At the same time, cutting off American military aid presents its own complications for the United States and could ensnarl the Obama administration in a knotty contractual battle with American military contractors, said military procurement specialists and Congressional aides. 

Under current procedures, Egypt can submit large orders in advance for weaponry and equipment that takes years to produce and deliver, under the assumption that Congress will continue to allocate the same $1.3 billion in military aid year after year. Some Egyptian orders now extend to 2018 under this arrangement, called cash-flow financing. In effect, officials said, the United States has handed Egypt a credit card with a maximum limit of billions of dollars — a perquisite extended only to Egypt and Israel. 

The administration has told Congress in recent days that canceling weapons and maintenance contracts could force the government to incur as much as $2 billion in penalties. Under the terms of the tank program, for example, most components are produced in the United States — Ohio, Michigan, Alabama, Florida and Pennsylvania — and shipped to a facility outside of Cairo for assembly.

If the Arab Spring can be successfully rolled back it is a very bad sign for the rest of us. Hopes that we can solve our problems collectively through the ballot box will be dashed.