U.S. Duplicity and World War in Syria

Duplicity and publicity are all the United States is capable of, so much so that one dismisses the top-of-the-fold story yesterday by Eric Schmitt and Michael Gordon ("U.S. Aims to Put More Pressure on ISIS in Syria"), two reporters who are usually tasked with the big propaganda roll-outs, as more of the same and awaits a quote from either Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov or some Iranian official to at least get a semblance of the truth.

Those quotes arrive today in "Russian Soldiers Join Syria Fight" by Andrew Kramer and Anne Barnard:

Russian officials say they are targeting the Islamic State, though their bombs have mainly hit territories held by other insurgents who oppose Mr. Assad, Russia’s ally. The strikes have hit the Army of Conquest, an Islamist faction that includes the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, as well as more-secular groups that often fight alongside it, including some that have received covert American aid. 

The Obama administration, by contrast, says its own airstrikes against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria can succeed only with a political transition that ends with Mr. Assad’s removal. 

The administration’s position was ridiculed Monday by Sergey V. Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, who said the American airstrikes, which began more than a year ago, had done little militarily. In comments carried by Russia’s official Tass news agency, Mr. Lavrov said that even the Americans had acknowledged their faltering efforts to create a force of so-called moderate insurgents in Syria.

“Nobody knows about these people,” he said. “Nobody’s really heard about the moderate opposition.”

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif of Iran, Mr. Assad’s regional ally, was also dismissive of the American efforts in Syria, both to unseat Mr. Assad and to combat the Islamic State. Sounding emboldened by the Russian airstrikes, Mr. Zarif said at a talk in New York that there was a difference between Russia — which was invited by Mr. Assad to help — and the American-led coalition that has been bombing Syria. “Why are you there?” he said. “Who gave you the right to be there?”

The lies and the omissions of the official U.S. position are too layered and numerous to conveniently recite. But let's give it a shot. First, the big one that is being leaned on heavily by the press, which should and no doubt does know better, that Russian airstrikes are targeting the "moderate" Syrian opposition and driving otherwise secular fighters into the arms of the jihadists of Al Qaeda and ISIS. This is a lie, plain and simple, the main fabrication the U.S. relies on to justify its actions in Syria. The actuality is that the U.S. is working with the Salafis to destroy Syria and Iraq and pressure Iran, as the U.S. worked with the mujahideen to destroy Afghanistan.

The big omission in this context is the revolt of the Centcom analysts, a story which confirms the Russian and Iranian positions that the U.S. is engaged in a phony war against ISIS while the jihadists of the Army of Conquest (the Pepsi to Islamic State's Coke) roll along destroying the Syrian state.

Now with Turkey's keening over a Russian incursion into its air space, followed by a NATO reprimand, we're getting closer to World War III or World War IV, whichever one it is by now. According to Kramer and Bernard,

The potential combination of Russian ground forces and aerial attacks particularly threatens to undermine Turkey’s Syria policy, which aims for the establishment of a “safe zone” along the Turkish border where some Syrian refugees could return in the future. 

The Russian air incursion happened on Saturday, when Turkish fighter jets scrambled to intercept a warplane that trespassed into Turkish airspace. On Monday, NATO issued a warning to Russia, as the United States began urgent consultations with Turkey over what they called “next steps.” 

Russia’s actions were “an unacceptable violation” of Turkish airspace, NATO’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said after meeting with the Turkish foreign minister, Feridun Sinirlioglu. Mr. Stoltenberg added, “Russia’s actions are not contributing to the security and stability of the region.”

The United States is completely out of whack with the will of its people, passing trade deals, which are  overwhelming rejected by voters on both the left and the right, with the goal of a future conlict with China. It is a vision of the future which offers nothing but poverty and war. No wonder most works of popular fiction seem to be dystopian. This system of war and poverty calls for a rebellion. We need to be thinking about wise, efficient ways this rebellion can be brought about.

Tea Party Propaganda War + ISIS

The Tea Party is unbowed one day in to their shutdown of the federal government. The coverage in today's New York Times points to a propaganda war that will unfold in the next few days as the House Republicans attempt to pass piecemeal spending bills, which they failed to accomplish last night, hoping to force Senate majority leader Harry Reid to take them up. If he refuses, then the GOP can blame the Democrats for keeping the national parks and veterans' centers closed. 

But there is peril on this path for Republican hardliners. To get piecemeal spending bills passed over Democratic opposition they must do so under ordinary rules requiring a simple majority vote. This opens up the possibility that "a clean CR" -- a bill to reopen the government without language to limit, delay or repeal Obamacare -- could make it to the House floor for an up or down vote.

Here is how the august Jonathan Weisman explains it in his "House G.O.P. Pushes Piecemeal Approach as Democrats Stand Firm":

Aides to the Republican leadership said the bills would be introduced on Wednesday under ordinary rules that require only simple majorities, and they should easily pass. But Democrats are likely to be granted procedural votes of their own, which would be an opportunity to test how many Republicans would defy their leadership and vote to reopen the entire government without crippling President Obama’s health care law — the standoff that shut down the government at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday. 

As public anger grows, more Republicans are coming forward to call for such a rebellion. 

“The frustration and anger over Obamacare is being interpreted to be an all-or-nothing calculation,” said Representative Patrick Meehan, Republican of Pennsylvania, who now favors a simple stopgap spending measure to reopen the government. “People are very worried about Obamacare. Some of its pieces are problematic. 

“But they want us to come here and work on problems across America, and we can’t get to doing that if both sides are dug in,” he said. 

Democrats face pressure of their own to drop their stance of approving a spending bill only if it is free of policy prescriptions. Senate Democratic leaders say they plan to immediately kill all three of the piecemeal House bills, arguing that they will not be forced to choose between financing veterans’ programs or cancer research at the National Institutes of Health.

Tea Party stalwarts are convinced that they can still win the battle for American hearts and minds, even though the first-day response to the opening of the online Obamacare insurance market was so robust it led to meltdowns in the system.

The House GOP is suffering from the same kind of magical thinking that predicted a Romney win absent any polling data last election eve. Nonetheless, they will launch this piecemeal spending bill strategy and try to create some traction in the Senate. I read yesterday that Senator Dick Durbin, Democrat from Illinois, broached the idea of a deal based on a repeal of the medical device tax part of Obamacare. Thankfully, this was quickly shot down by Harry Reid.

Give the propaganda war a few days to play out.

There is a good story by Ben Hubbard this morning, "Qaeda Branch in Syria Pursues Its Own Agenda," about the method of operation of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS):

The rise of extremist groups has exacerbated Syria’s instability. ISIS has attacked rebel bases to capture supplies, and routed rebel groups last month to seize control of Azaz, a strategic city near the Turkish border, leading to a tense cease-fire. Last week, Qaeda fighters tried to storm a village in Idlib Province to kidnap some rebels, leaving 20 dead from both sides, including the jihadis’ Libyan commander. 

“We want to keep Syria together as a country of freedom and equality,” a leader in an Islamist rebel group opposed to ISIS, called Suqour al-Sham, who gave his name as Abu Bashir, said via Skype. “They want to form an Islamic state that comes together with Iraq.” 

In an audio statement released online late Monday, a Qaeda spokesman defended the group, saying its contributions to the anti-Assad fight had been underappreciated and denying that it had started fights with rebel groups. 

“Those who aspire to sideline the state are many because of incorrect beliefs and doctrines,” said the spokesman, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani al-Shami. “They are greedy for power and for the worthless things of this world.” 

Analysts say the group is a revival and extension of Al Qaeda in Iraq, whose sectarian-fueled insurgency pushed that country to the brink of civil war in 2006 and 2007, before the group suffered major defeats at the hands of tribal fighters and American troops. 

In Syria, however, the group has found the vast territories that have fallen into rebel hands near Syria’s northern and eastern borders as an ideal environment to regroup and advance its agenda. 

The area is stateless, covered by a weak patchwork of local councils and rebel groups struggling to administer their towns and often competing with one another for resources. This gives the group a wide area to work in with no immediate enemies. The porousness of the Iraqi and Turkish borders also makes it easy for the group to bring in supplies and fighters. 

Brian Fishman, a former director of research at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point and now a fellow at the New America Foundation, said those factors gave Al Qaeda a more favorable environment in Syria than it ever had in Iraq. 

“The conditions in Syria will be ripe for ISIS for quite some time,” he said.

There is a good Moon of Alabama blog post from a few days back that discusses negotiations between the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian government. The reality that is sinking in with the non-jihadi opposition is that the true enemy is the Saudi- and Qatari-funded mujahideen.

The Poverty of Elections

Elections are proving not to be the answer. Look at Obama's solid, one might even argue historic, progressive repudiation of a troglodyte conservative Republican Party. Nothing has changed. The economy remains hobbled with too many unemployed; the national security state grows ever stronger. Even Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama's one great promise -- that he'll wind down the wars in the Middle East -- has turned into a lie as we end up where we began 35 years ago -- arming the mujahideen.

Elections that brought the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt have done nothing to address the nation's ills. The Mubarak security forces remain ensconced in the Interior Ministry; the economy teeters on the brink; and the society is divided between followers of conservative Islam and everyone else. Violence spiked yesterday in the run up to Sunday's huge planned protest. There could be a full-blown civil war in a matter of days.

Iraq is suffering through daily multiple terror bombings.

Al Nusra Front jihadis are claiming to have taken the Binayat checkpoint from the Syrian Arab Army in the southern city of Dara'a. But even the pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights doubts the veracity of the claim. According to the story by Hania Mourtada and Rick Gladstone in this morning's paper,

Video posted on the Internet showed what the rebels claimed to be the destruction of a high-rise building at the checkpoint, along with proclamations of victory by fighters of the Nusra Front “and the Islamic battalions who participated in the operation.” 

Rami Abdulrahman, the head of the Syrian Observatory, said the insurgents had not taken full control of Dara’a. But in remarks quoted by Reuters, he said the Syrian military’s position in Dara’a was under threat and “this could change the balance of power there.”

An anti-Assad activist from Dara’a who is currently in Jordan agreed in a telephone interview that the seizure of the Binayat checkpoint was a setback for Syrian forces in Dara’a, but cautioned that the rebel claims of victory could be overstated. “The Islamic groups are trying to make a big deal behind this operation, a boasting attempt,” said the activist, who identified himself only by his given name, Taysir, for security reasons.

In other words, an attack on a government checkpoint has, thanks to the power of jihadi magical thinking, turned into the capture of an entire city.

The Guardian is reporting stepped up government activity to retake the Khalidiyah district in Homs.

I woke up this morning thinking that what's happening here is that the Wahhabis are making their move to take control of the Middle East. It's hard to think that in this environment the Israelis are going to budge one inch towards a two-state solution. This is a war for survival.

Need That Poison Gas

The UN team investigating allegations of the use of Syrian chemical weapons is in Turkey. According to a Reuters story,

They were sent to Turkey this week and its head, Swedish scientist Ake Sellstrom, was meeting Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Thursday, a senior Turkish official told Reuters. 

The Syrian government and rebels fighting it have accused each other of using lethal chemical agents, including sarin gas, in the two-year-old conflict. 

More than 100,000 people have been killed since fighting began in March 2011 in what is the longest and most violent of the recent Arab uprisings, according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 

Western governments have grown frustrated that the U.N. mission has been unable to make progress on investigating the claims, a diplomat told Reuters. 

From Turkey, the team will be unable to gather soil samples or scientific evidence needed to prove chemical use, but could compile intelligence and interview or take blood samples from witnesses or victims of alleged attacks. 

"As he cannot travel to Syria, Sellstrom visits countries like Turkey, France and Britain that have some information about possible use of chemical weapons in Syria," said the Turkish official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Sellstrom visited the Turkey-Syria border area and talked to officials who shared data on chemical weapons use, he said.

In order for the United States and the old colonial powers, Britain and France, to launch their Libya-style air attack on Syria they need the poison gas narrative front and center; it clouds the brazen illegality of their military adventurism. But the U.S. experience with another Swedish UN weapons inspector Hans Blix was not a happy one. In the run up to the invasion of Iraq Blix was right -- there was no conclusive evidence of WMDs -- and he held his ground despite the famous Colin Powell speech before the Security Council and its fantasies of mobile Iraqi biological weapons laboratories. Already secret intelligence agency analysis has been used as justification for the U.S. to arm the rebels. But a no-fly zone will require more. Thankfully, there is no reason to believe Ake Sellstrom will be any more compliant than Blix.

While there is no mention in the New York Times this morning of the government taking control of Tal Kalakh from the rebels, Sarah El Deeb reporting for The Associated Press has it:

On Wednesday, the [Syrian Observatory for Human Rights] said the regime drove rebels out of the town of Talkalakh, along the border with Lebanon. The town, which had a predominantly Sunni population of about 70,000 before the conflict, is surrounded by 12 Alawite villages located within walking distance of the Lebanon border. 

The government takeover will likely affect the rebels' ability to bring supplies, fighters and weapons from Lebanon. 

The town also lies on the highway that links the city of Homs to Tartus, in the coastal Alawite enclave that is home to one of Syria's two main seaports. 

Syrian state TV showed soldiers patrolling the streets of Talkalakh, inspecting underground tunnels and displaying weapons seized from the opposition. 

The governor of Homs, Ahmed Munir, told the private Lebanese broadcaster al-Mayadeen that some rebels in Talkalakh handed their weapons over to authorities. He said the town was a major area for infiltrators from Lebanon. 

"Talkalakh is clear of weapons," Munir said.

Southeast of Talkalakh, government forces also took control of the village of Quarayaten on a highway that links the rebels to another supply route from Iraq, according to an activist who spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear for his safety. 

The regime victories are likely to help it advance on rebel-held areas of the city of Homs, he said. The activist, who is connected to rebels in Homs, spoke by Skype.

Bill Roggio of The Long War Journal has a post this morning about the ongoing assault on the Minnigh airport in Aleppo. It's being led by the Muhajireen Army, a jihadi group comprised of fighters from the Russian Caucasus.

Going forward this appears to be the situation: Peace breaking out but jihadi mercenaries, paid and provisioned by the Saudis and Qataris, fight on Taliban-style with suicide bombings. It's Afghanistan. This time, in spite of the Global War On Terror, the United States is back to its Carter-Reagan era role -- supporting the mujahideen. It's a position that is so at odds with itself it will be very difficult to maintain.