Al-Assad Has Good Reason to Gloat

The Associated Press is reporting this morning that the Syrian National Coalition is calling for immediate intervention by the West and the United Nations to provide food and medical assistance to the besieged rebel-held areas of Homs and Dara'a. We've seen this before in the run up to Syrian Arab Army control of Qusayr.

It's hard to imagine things going any worse for the rebels. The Syrian National Coalition is meeting in Istanbul to agree on new leadership. So far there is no indication that divisions can be bridged. The coup in Cairo will sow even more division. The big benefactor nations will  turn their attention to Egypt. The GCC has come out in support of the Egyptian military while Tunisia and Turkey defend their political brethren in the Muslim Brotherhood. The United States is biding its time. Al-Assad feels strengthened by the turn of events.

If civil war breaks out in Egypt between Islamists and the military, the United States will favor an immediate cease fire. This will put it odds with its position regarding Syria, which is that more blood needs to be spilled before al-Assad is softened up enough to negotiate his power away.

If civil war does not break out and the Egyptian military manages a smoother transition to a more inclusive Democratic state this time around, then al-Assad will not have to worry about Sunni imams using Cairo to issue calls for jihad against Syria. The Egyptian military doesn't want jihadis returning from foreign wars to stir up trouble at home.

Either outcome of the coup, al-Assad has reason to gloat.

The Poverty of Elections

Elections are proving not to be the answer. Look at Obama's solid, one might even argue historic, progressive repudiation of a troglodyte conservative Republican Party. Nothing has changed. The economy remains hobbled with too many unemployed; the national security state grows ever stronger. Even Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama's one great promise -- that he'll wind down the wars in the Middle East -- has turned into a lie as we end up where we began 35 years ago -- arming the mujahideen.

Elections that brought the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt have done nothing to address the nation's ills. The Mubarak security forces remain ensconced in the Interior Ministry; the economy teeters on the brink; and the society is divided between followers of conservative Islam and everyone else. Violence spiked yesterday in the run up to Sunday's huge planned protest. There could be a full-blown civil war in a matter of days.

Iraq is suffering through daily multiple terror bombings.

Al Nusra Front jihadis are claiming to have taken the Binayat checkpoint from the Syrian Arab Army in the southern city of Dara'a. But even the pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights doubts the veracity of the claim. According to the story by Hania Mourtada and Rick Gladstone in this morning's paper,

Video posted on the Internet showed what the rebels claimed to be the destruction of a high-rise building at the checkpoint, along with proclamations of victory by fighters of the Nusra Front “and the Islamic battalions who participated in the operation.” 

Rami Abdulrahman, the head of the Syrian Observatory, said the insurgents had not taken full control of Dara’a. But in remarks quoted by Reuters, he said the Syrian military’s position in Dara’a was under threat and “this could change the balance of power there.”

An anti-Assad activist from Dara’a who is currently in Jordan agreed in a telephone interview that the seizure of the Binayat checkpoint was a setback for Syrian forces in Dara’a, but cautioned that the rebel claims of victory could be overstated. “The Islamic groups are trying to make a big deal behind this operation, a boasting attempt,” said the activist, who identified himself only by his given name, Taysir, for security reasons.

In other words, an attack on a government checkpoint has, thanks to the power of jihadi magical thinking, turned into the capture of an entire city.

The Guardian is reporting stepped up government activity to retake the Khalidiyah district in Homs.

I woke up this morning thinking that what's happening here is that the Wahhabis are making their move to take control of the Middle East. It's hard to think that in this environment the Israelis are going to budge one inch towards a two-state solution. This is a war for survival.