The Putschist Ruse in Ukraine is Almost Up

Putschist interior minister Arsen Avakov has distinguished himself among the Kiev gang for a Goebbels-like facility for distortion of the truth. Today he is front and center with the coinage of a cute acronym for the second failed putschist offensive in as many weeks against the uprising in eastern Ukraine. Andrew Higgins, David Herszenhorn and Alan Cowell have the story this morning, "Ukraine Says Its Efforts to Regain Control of East Will Continue":

Sounding increasingly strident alarms, Ukraine’s interim prime minister, Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, accused Moscow on Friday of seeking to create a wider conflict. “Attempts at military conflict in Ukraine will lead to a military conflict in Europe,” Mr. Yatsenyuk told the interim cabinet in remarks broadcast live, according to Reuters. “The world has not yet forgotten World War II, but Russia already wants to start World War III.”

In a posting on Facebook, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov declared that Ukraine’s military operations in the east — known as “ATO,” meaning Anti-Terrorist Operation — had not been suspended.

“There has been no suspension of the ATO in connection to the threat of invasion by Russia’s armed forces,” Mr. Avakov said, apparently responding to local news reports saying the operation had been called off because of the “heightened risk” of a Russian invasion. “The ATO goes on. The terrorists should be on their guard around the clock. Civilians have nothing to fear.” 

Despite the minister’s warning, there have been no reports of renewed conflict since Ukrainian forces moved briefly against pro-Russian positions on Thursday in what Mr. Avakov, apparently playing down the action, described on Friday as an operation by “insignificant” government forces that had deployed “without the use of tanks or other heavy armor.”

So there you have it. The putschists cannot control the east. A military attack on the buildings occupied by pro-Russian protesters is unlikely as long as Russia is conducting large drills on the Ukrainian border. This means that the chances of the putschist May 25 presidential election being deemed free and fair are remote. Gazprom is ratcheting up the pressure for Ukraine to pay its gas bill. Europe is getting queasy about the trade war that is barreling its way. We are getting close to the "put up or shut up" point for the U.S. Cue Secretary of State John Kerry, a noxious manikin and lie machine. Kerry's remarks last night amounted to nothing more than a doubling down on a busted hand.

We're getting close now, very close, to the ruse being up. Sanctions and the threat of creating capital flight out of Russia is the last act in this U.S.-sponsored drama. According to Higgins et al.,

In Washington, Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia on Thursday night that it would face additional economic sanctions if it failed to carry out that agreement. “The window to change course is closing,” he said. Sanctions could be announced as soon as Friday if the Russians do not respond, said one administration official who asked not to be identified while discussing internal planning.

The threat of intensified sanctions was under underscored on Friday when the rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded its assessment of Russia.

“In our view, the tense geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine could see additional significant outflows of both foreign and domestic capital from the Russian economy and hence further undermine already weakening growth prospects,” the agency wrote. 

In his most detailed accusation of Russian interference to date, Mr. Kerry said that American intelligence services had concluded that Russia’s “military intelligence services and special operators are playing an active role in destabilizing eastern Ukraine with personnel, weapons, operational planning and coordination.” 

“Some of the individual Special Operations personnel who were active on Russia’s behalf in Chechnya, Georgia and Crimea have been photographed in Slovyansk, Donetsk and Luhansk,” Mr. Kerry said. “Some are even bragging about it by themselves on their Russian social media sites.” 

On Friday, Mr. Kerry’s Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, hit back, accusing Washington of seeking only to further its interests in Ukraine. 

“The West wants to take control of Ukraine while exclusively putting its geopolitical interests, not the interests of the Ukrainian people, at the forefront,” Mr. Lavrov told a conference of young diplomats from former Soviet republics. 

“We are talking about the methods that Americans use with states of different regions,” Mr. Lavrov said. “This is not our method. We will not blackmail, we will not threaten, we are all polite people,” he said. 

“Without batting an eye, our Western partners keep demanding day after day that Russia stop interfering in Ukrainian affairs, pull out troops and remove certain agents who have reportedly been caught in the southeast and who are reportedly guiding these processes,” Mr. Lavrov said, adding, “I even find it difficult to respond. I try to make the conversation constructive.”

This is the moment of truth. And since the United States is a power that does not deal in the truth, expect the moment to be avoided. Any sanctions announced in the next few days will remain largely cosmetic, targeting members of the Russian ruling elite and possibly some banks or other institutions. The sanctions cannot be too biting because once they bite London, Berlin and Paris will part company with the Obama administration.

As for Gazprom, the putsch government does not have the ability to pay its bill, and the West will not unless it can secure future pricing and supply guarantees (which will not be forthcoming).

So we are right at the place we have been all along: the putschists and their U.S. backers are cradling a crock of shit, and that crock of shit is a place called "Banderastan."

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There is some news this morning that an assault on Slovyansk is in the offing. Ukrainian military are encircling the city, blocking roads and sending snipers into the surrounding woods. It sounds like a siege.