Monday, April 21, 2014

The Obama Legacy: A New Cold War

The Geneva statement issued last Thursday has already unraveled. Early Sunday morning at a checkpoint outside of Slovyansk pro-Russian protesters came under fire. Three people have been reported killed and four wounded. The attackers are likely the neo-fascist group Right Sector. Andrew Kramer reporting from Slovyansk has the story, "Shootout Underscores Fragile Truce in Ukraine":
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Sunday calling groundless the Russian ministry’s assertion that the attackers had been members of Right Sector. Right Sector also denied any involvement. 
“The Russian side must be reminded about their obligations under the Geneva agreement to bring all necessary influence to bear on separatists to clear illegally held buildings, unblock roads, lay down arms and prevent any bloodshed,” the Ukrainian statement said. 
Life News, a Russian tabloid television channel, reported that pro-Russian militants had found a business card of the leader of Right Sector, Dmytro Yarosh, among the belongings said to have been left behind by one of the attackers, along with guns and stacks of American dollars. 
The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that “as a result of an attack by insurgents of the so-called Right Sector, innocent civilians have died.” It added that pro-Russian fighters had found “aerial photographs of that district” and Right Sector emblems in cars seized from the attackers. “The Russian side is indignant at this provocation of the insurgents, which shows the Kiev authorities’ unwillingness to rein and disarm the nationalists and extremists,” it said.
As to be expected, in order to divert attention from this brazen violation of the Geneva statement, the Obama administration peddled putsch government photographs that purportedly prove Russian special forces are directing the pro-Russian uprising in the Donbass. Andrew Higgins, Michael Gordon and Andrew Kramer have the story, "Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia":
“There has been broad unity in the international community about the connection between Russia and some of the armed militants in eastern Ukraine, and the photos presented by the Ukrainians last week only further confirm this, which is why U.S. officials have continued to make that case,” Jen Psaki, the State Department spokeswoman, said Sunday. 
The question of Russia’s role in eastern Ukraine has a critical bearing on the agreement reached Thursday in Geneva among Russian, Ukrainian, American and European diplomats to ease the crisis. American officials have said that Russia would be held responsible for ensuring that the Ukrainian government buildings were vacated, and that it could face new sanctions if the terms were not met.
This is the U.S. attempt to shift the narrative away from Right Sector violence; it likely also prefigures another round of largely cosmetic sanctions directed at the Russian ruling elite. Also, make note. Whenever you see a story written or co-written by Michael Gordon, what you are getting is the official lie.

Going forward, what we are working our way towards, and the direction events have been moving since Crimea last month, is -- "How serious is the West about initiating a trade war with Russia?" We have heard a lot of talk from Obama and Kerry about costs, but so far those costs have been negligible. The conundrum facing the United States is that as soon as it really starts to walk the talk, that will be the time that prominent EU members -- like Germany and Italy -- begin to make noise about getting off the train. Europe's future growth is in the east not the west.

What seems apparent is that the White House is not going to abandon the putschists in Kiev. We are dealing with a parent's love of his child. This means that we can expect more deadly shenanigans from Right Sector goon squads, which will eventually lead to a thorough counterattack from the "green men."

This is not going to end well for either the putschists nor the Obama administration. What Obama must realize is that there is zero popular support for this New Cold War he is creating. This is not 1948 Berlin. The more he pursues it, the greater the chances of his legacy being one of infamy.

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