The Battle in Eastern Ukraine: Greystone vs.the Green Men

Well, the battle(s) to retake eastern Ukraine appear to be underway this morning. The Gray Lady's C.J. Chivers reporting from Donetsk, along with Andrew Higgins in Kiev and Alan Cowell in London, writes that the putsch interior minister Arsen Avakov is claiming victory in clearing the Mariupol city hall of protesters thanks to the vigilance of "civilian activists" (read: Right Sector goon squad) wearing masks and wielding baseball bats:

In his Facebook posting, Mr. Avakov said there had been “no victims” in the tussle for City Hall in Mariupol, but that bomb disposal experts were checking the building for explosives. 

The A.P. quoted Yulia Lasazan, a spokeswoman for Mariupol’s police department, as saying that roughly 30 masked men had used baseball bats to beat pro-Russia protesters after storming the building in the early hours of Thursday. 

The occupiers did not offer resistance, even though some of them were believed to be armed, The A.P. said, but called the police instead. 

Five people were taken to a hospital, Ms. Lasazan said. 

Ms. Lasazan said the police were controlling the perimeter and were negotiating with the remaining protesters, asking them to leave the building.

So Mariupol city hall has fallen to the putschists. While that is not goods news, Mariupol is not one of the critical protest zones in the east. Slovyansk is. And what is being reported there is that five pro-Russian protesters have been killed manning barricades that block entry into the city. The Wall Street Journal has the story, "Ukraine Says Up to 5 Militants Killed in East":

Ukrainian authorities said Thursday that up to five pro-Russian militants were killed and three roadblocks overrun outside an eastern city at the heart of a local insurgency, as Kiev restarted a military operation to regain control in the region. 

Also on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the use of military force against Ukrainian civilians would have consequences for the leadership in Kiev. He didn't elaborate on what they would be. 

"If the Kiev regime begins to use the army against its own citizens, that is, without a doubt, a very serious crime," he said. "This will certainly have an impact on those who make such decisions and on our bilateral relations." 

Mr. Putin didn't repeat his previous statements that Moscow reserves the right to defend ethnic Russians or Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine. There was no immediate indication that Moscow was preparing to use military force, though it has built up troops along the border with Ukraine.

There are a couple of questions here. First, if five died defending a few roadblocks at the edge of the city, what is the death toll going to be if an attempt is made to clear Slovyansk city hall? I would imagine it is going to be much higher. Judging from the video of a funeral service for a young man slain on Easter manning one of the barricades, Slovyansk is a city mobilized and solidly anti-putsch. The putschist special forces are going to be confronting enraged old women as well as armed men. This is a combination that routed the first "anti-terrorism" campaign last week. And recall then that Avakov had initially celebrated the success of securing an airfield at Kramatorsk before everything collapsed fantastically.

My assessment at the time was that the debacle the putschists experienced was proof that Russia was not going to allow a single victory for Kiev in the east. So that is the second question this morning: Does this assessment still hold? Will Russia allow the pro-Russian uprising in the Donbass to be rolled up by what is likely a U.S. mercenary-filled military force?

I don't see how Russia can. First, there is public opinion in Russia. For Putin to stand by as pro-Russian protesters are either killed or rounded up would be devastating to his standing domestically. Then there is the fact that if the putschists are successful in pacifying the east and completing their May 25 presidential election, predations against Russians are not going to magically cease. There is a strong chance they will accelerate. If Obama is willing to directly support the canard that the protesters in Donetsk were creating a system of registration for Jews, then there is little doubt that he will provide public relations assistance for the Kiev gang as they mop up the dissidents in the Donbass.

No, Russia has to act. And right now that looks like they are willing to match their "green men," their special forces, against whatever mercenaries the CIA has been able to piece together for the putschists. Call it Greystone vs. the Green Men. At this point I don't see a Russian ground invasion.