NATO Brays, Putin Shows His Hand

Taking the "satellite" view of events in Ukraine this Friday, when the only story in the Gray Lady is David Herszenhorn's "Satellites Show Russian Forces Poised Near Ukraine," it should be apparent to all news consumers that now that the West has its neo-foot in Russia's front door there is no going back. We are experiencing, and have been for the last month, the first days of the New Cold War.

As for Herszenhorn's article about 40,000 Russian troops with all sorts of hardware massed on Ukraine's eastern border, it basically repeats the NATO press release built around satellite photos taken by a company called DigitalGlobe. No word is mentioned of Russian claims that the images actually capture drills conducted last August.

What is afoot here is the West providing flak for the putschists and there impending crackdown in Donetsk. With enough keening and braying coming out of Brussels, the hope emanating from Western capitals is that the Russians will stay on their side of the border when security forces led by the re-branded Blackwater (Greystone) mop up the retirees occupying government buildings. What a triumphant display of force by mercenaries and neo-Nazis will accomplish other than more unrest I know not.

Lavrov made a statement on Wednesday regarding the possibility of four-party talks at some point in the near future to take place in Geneva. But I wouldn't hold my breath:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on April 9 that the meeting on Ukraine should help foster equal dialogue in Ukraine. He said Russia would attend a four-party meeting on Ukraine with the United States, the European Union and the Ukrainian authorities only if it helped Kiev foster contacts with all political and regional forces inside the country. 

The West has suggested holding a meeting on the situation in Ukraine. “April was named as a tentative date,” he recalled and stressed that Russia’s position was simple. “This is an internal Ukrainian crisis, and those who are holding the reins of power in Kiev now must invite all regions, all political forces to start a dialogue on the constitution, on the language and all other aspects.

Lavrov said Russia had so far received no reply to its inquiries, including those concerning rumours that Kiev is planning to sell ballistic missile technologies. “We asked the Americans what they think about this. They keep silence,” the minister said. 

Another inquiry that remains unanswered was about reports claiming that personnel of the private American security company Greystone had been deployed in Ukraine. “They say: we see no reason for this to be true. What a strange answer. Why don’t you simply say: there is none of them there?” Lavrov said, adding that there were also other inquiries that had not been answered by the US authorities.

“If this meeting focuses on urging the Ukrainian authorities not to wait for the south-eastern regions to boil over, as is the case now, and on urging them to talk with these regions, we will join this call,” he said. 

Lavrov recalled that the new Ukrainian authorities had not visited the southern and south-eastern regions of the country even once since February 22 when they took power in Kiev. “They say: there is the Party of Regions and there are communists in the Verkhovna Rada [parliament] and that’s enough. But it’s not so because many regions think that those who sit in the Verkhovna Rada do not represent their interests,” he said. 

The minister said he did not know where the meeting could take place. “We want to understand the purpose of convening this meeting,” he said. 

If the organisers intend to urge the Kiev authorities to take care of the country, Russia will support it wholeheartedly. “But if they say: ‘take your seats at the table and give them cheap gas’, this is probably senseless,” he said. 

In discussing ways to resolve the Ukrainian crisis some time ago, Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry did not rule out a meeting between Ukrainian, Russian, EU and US officials.

Concerning that cheap gas, Putin released a letter he penned to European heads of state patiently explaining the next Russian moves if the West refuses to come to the bargaining table. Pre-payment will be required for future energy supplies if no effort is made by the putschists to whittle down some of the substantial debt Ukraine has accumulated:

The debt of NAK Naftogaz Ukraine for delivered gas has been growing monthly this year. In November-December 2013 this debt stood at 1.451,5 billion US dollars; in February 2014 it increased by a further 260.3 million and in March by another 526.1 million US dollars. Here I would like to draw your attention to the fact that in March there was still a discount price applied, i.e., 268.5 US dollars per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. And even at that price, Ukraine did not pay a single dollar. 

In such conditions, in accordance with Articles 5.15, 5.8 and 5.3 of the contract, Gazprom is compelled to switch over to advance payment for gas delivery, and in the event of further violation of the conditions of payment, will completely or partially cease gas deliveries. In other words, only the volume of natural gas will be delivered to Ukraine as was paid for one month in advance of delivery. 

Undoubtedly, this is an extreme measure. We fully realize that this increases the risk of siphoning off natural gas passing through Ukraine’s territory and heading to European consumers. We also realize that this may make it difficult for Ukraine to accumulate sufficient gas reserves for use in the autumn and winter period. In order to guarantee uninterrupted transit, it will be necessary, in the nearest future, to supply 11.5 billion cubic meters of gas that will be pumped into Ukraine’s underground storage facilities, and this will require a payment of about 5 billion US dollars. 

However, the fact that our European partners have unilaterally withdrawn from the concerted efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, and even from holding consultations with the Russian side, leaves Russia no alternative.

In all of this, the Russian position is legal, rational, forward looking. What does the West stand for here? Subterfuge, violence, austerity. Apparently that is the only game the U.S. and its European toadies know how to play.

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Going forward, I apologize about the spottiness of my usual Friday Hippies vs. Punks posts. Owing to a combination of busyness at work, the eruption of the New Cold War and gradual loss of physical conditioning, I haven't been able to devote the amount of time necessary to write the posts, which require aural immersion during the work week as well as some textual research.

Also, I have been meaning to begin a regular "Nihilism" post. Look for the first installment this weekend.

Until then I'll leave you with The Troggs song, "With a Girl Like You." Nihilism in simple form is the rejection of the Romantic world view. There is no loving embrace from the feminine; there is no bull's-eye for your arrow.