NFL Week 20: Championship Round

Before picking the champions of the AFC and NFC a few words on the divisional round. Clearly the most glaring performance from last weekend was the spiritless effort put in by the Denver Broncos. To be honest with you, I can't think of the last time I watched a playoff football game where I witnessed such manifest surrender. It was like looking at a bunch of millionaires pretending to be concerned about the outcome of a match they couldn't care less about. Judging from the shots of the stands about half the home-field crowd had cleared out by the fourth quarter even with the score close enough to easily allow a Denver comeback. But by then the fans knew better.

I was fooled by the Broncos and so was Las Vegas. I am a novice, but the Vegas line is big money in service of big business. They are infrequently as wrong as they were in setting Indianapolis vs. Denver line (Broncos -6.5). My excuse is that I hadn't watched a full Denver game, that I can recall at least, since the big Peyton Manning adulation orgy when he broke Brett Favre's career TD record and the Broncos blew out the 49ers on Sunday night. At that point Denver looked like the best team in the NFL.

Now John Fox is out, as he should be, even after four consecutive AFC West titles. And I would be surprised if Peyton Manning will be back. It is clear what you need in the NFL to win. You need passion and focus and talent. And I believe you need mobility at QB. Denver has talent but none of the rest. It will be interesting to see if Brady ends up in his sixth Super Bowl whether an immobile QB can win a world championship in today's game.

The Packers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship Game a touchdown underdog. Green Bay is not particularly fearsome on the road. If you saw the Pack's NFL Week 15 beat-down by the Bills you know what I mean. Rodgers' calf injury gives a big edge to the Seahawks defense, while Russell Wilson has been playing at a high level. Green Bay could pull off an upset. But it would take another tremendous effort from Rodgers. And he generally does not provide that on the road. Take the Seahawks.

The late game on Sunday is more difficult for me to pick. New England is a touchdown favorite, which makes sense given how poorly Indianapolis has performed at Foxborough in the past and given how on fire Brady was last week against the Ravens; the guy was brilliant. But I have seriously underestimated the Colts two weeks running; they have been -- believe it or not -- the dominant team in the playoffs this year. And it has been the Indianapolis defense that has been doing the dominating. The Colts shut down Jeremy Hill and then they shut down C.J. Anderson, both better backs than any the Patriots have.

The counterargument is that both the Bengals and the Broncos were all but finished before the first snap. The Bengals ravaged by flu and without a concussed A.J. Green didn't offer much fight, and the Broncos performance was a charade. So the argument here is that the Colts have been lucky with their draw so far, but the Patriots will be different.

I think there is something to this. But I have learned my lesson about going against Indianapolis this playoff season. The Colts secondary is better than the Ravens, and Chuck Pagano is hungry. Take the Colts in a upset.

NFL Week 19: Divisional Playoff Round

Last week the Colts undid me. I foolishly went with the Bengals thinking that their ground game would be the difference. Indianapolis shut it down, and Luck, with plenty of time to throw, completed passes at will. The Colts were impressive. They hadn't impressed me all season. Whether they can go into Denver and do the same thing against the Broncos is a whole different question.

Here are my picks for the divisional playoff round.

Ravens at Patriots: It is foolish to bet against New England at home, but I have done it before, and Baltimore is two out of three at Foxoborough in their last three playoff games there. I loathe the Patriots more than any other franchise in the NFL, even the Cowboys. This one is easy for me. Take Baltimore. Disregard the wisdom of Las Vegas (Patriots by a touchdown) and disregard the legitimate question "Who covers Gronkowski?" Go with Flacco and Ngata, Suggs and Forsett.

Panthers at Seahawks: For Cam Newton to go before the 12th Man and come away with a victory would be tantamount to a miracle. We live in a fallen age. The miraculous is absent. Seattle will be fresh from a week of rest. Marshawn Lynch's legs will be ready for another Super Bowl run. Take Seattle.

Cowboys at Packers: Vegas favors Green Bay. Rodgers' calf injury is troubling. Calves take a long time to heal. I like Eddie Lacy in this one though. DeMarco Murray's broken hand is still bothering him. Dez Bryant is not going to be dominant in the 20-degree weather of Lambeau Field. Take Green Bay.

Colts at Broncos: Here is where Indianapolis' Luck runs intro trouble. Manning much maligned of late will outshine, failing arm and all, his Colts replacement. C.J. Anderson should play well. Take Denver.

NFL Week 18: Wild Card Playoff Round

My biggest disappointment going into the weekend is that I will not be able to watch the Cardinals-Panthers game. Why? I don't have cable; I use digital rabbit ears. So if it is not on broadcast TV, I don't see it. Unless I go out to a bar. I did that once for one game of the 1998 World Cup, and I regretted it. I sat at the bar on a Saturday morning and tried to watch Italy vs. Norway while on either side drunks pestered me. They were like noisy children competing for attention, criticizing my interest in soccer as un-American.

Since the National Football League receives an antitrust exemption from the federal government, the principal advantage of which is that it allows team owners to bargain collectively with the television networks, a proviso should be added to the exemption that mandates all playoff games must appear on broadcast television.

This is the first NFL playoff game to appear exclusively on a cable channel. My fear is that this move means that the NFL will go the way of the NBA and Major League Baseball, leagues where most of the playoff games appear only on cable. I have written my Congressman.

As for the games of the wildcard round, here are my picks:

Cardinals at Panthers: Vegas has lost confidence in the miracle workings of Bruce Arians. Carolina is a six-and-a-half-point favorite at home, equal to the margin granted to Cowboys over the Lions. I am not a Cam Newton fan, but his play has improved as the Panthers have gone on an end-of-season tear. He has thrown only one interception in the last three games. I have yet to see the rejuvenated Panthers play. The last full game I saw is when Seattle beat them in week 8, and then Carolina was a team in free fall. I have seen the Cardinals play recently. And with Ryan Lindley at the helm, they are a team in free fall. Take the Panthers.

Ravens at Steelers: This is a tough one. The Vegas line is Steelers by 3. It is hard to go against Pittsburgh at home, but Le'Veon Bell is out. The Ravens get Haloti Ngata back from his Adderall suspension. Plus, I like Justin Forsett. Possibly Roethlisberger could win this game with his arm. Look what Philip Rivers did to Baltimore. Nonetheless, take the Ravens.

Bengals at Colts: The Vegas line is Colts by three-and-a-half points. Even though A.J. Green is out and the Bengals don't win in postseason, I'm going out on a limb here to say Cincinnati will triumph. I like the Bengals defense and their running game with Jeremy Hill; also, Andy Dalton running the read-option. The Colts have not impressed me this season.

Lions at Cowboys: Dallas could be playing the best football in the league right now. The Cowboys are an offensive juggernaut. Everyone is peaking: Romo, Witten, Murray, Bryant, Beasley. There is a possibility for an upset here though. Detroit's fearsome defensive line could knock Romo out of the game. Dallas will counter by running the ball with Murray or going with the quick dump off pass to Lance Dunbar and Cole Beasley. On defense, the Cowboys will devote all their attention to Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson, daring the Lions to beat them with Joique Bell. I would like to see Detroit win this game, but I don't see that happening on Sunday. Take Dallas.

NFL Week 16: Colts vs. Cowboys; Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Two weeks remain of the regular season and all divisions are still up for grabs in the NFC. The big games to watch this Sunday are Indianapolis at Dallas and Seattle at Arizona.

I haven’t studied the Colts closely. I saw bits and pieces of their come from behind victory against the Browns in Cleveland, and, prior to that, I witnessed televisually the first two quarters of the Sunday night Jonas Gray demolition of their run defense. And needless to say I am not impressed by the Colts. T.Y. Hilton is a dynamite wide receiver and Luck is a strong quarterback. But now in year three of their Pagano-rejuvenation the Colts strike me as a team in decline.

The big question about Sunday’s game in Dallas is less about the Colts and more about the Cowboys. It seems incredible to me that Jerry Jones (let’s not fool ourselves, Jason Garrett decides nothing of critical importance in Big D) would play DeMarco Murray the same week of his hand surgery. But that is what is being reported today. No doubt, the game is important. But why risk further injury to your #1 player? I think Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle are good enough, along with Romo passing to Jason Witten and Dez Bryant, to easily beat the Colts. It has to be a ruse by the Cowboys.

I will be cheering for the Colts though. I dislike Dallas immensely, as I believe most Americans do (except for Chris Christie and others who have been unselfed from a very young age). The appellation “America’s Team” is a tagline meant to aggravate the masses.

The Sunday night game is the marquee match-up of NFL Week 16. The current Vegas line has Seattle by 7.5 to 9 points over Arizona. If Seattle wins, the Seahawks will qualify for the playoffs. Seattle will have to win one more time next week against the Rams to secure a shot at home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

I asked a lot of different people here in the Seattle area what team was going to win. Everyone said Seattle. This makes me a little skittish. Such unanimity often portends a fall. Bruce Arians is a wily competitor. The offensive line for Seattle has been atrocious. Yet, even assuming the Cardinals defense somehow generates a few turnovers, I don’t see Ryan Lindley beating the red-hot Seahawks D.

Let’s go Seahawks! Onward to victory!

NFL Week 1: Some Fleeting Thoughts

The Super Bowl Champs looked appropriately primetime last Thursday night. A healthy Harvin spread the Packers defense, providing running lanes for the powerful and agile Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks defense looked stout. Kevin Williams, formerly of the Minnesota Vikings, should approximate the presence of the dearly-departed (to Jacksonville) Red Bryant.

We'll see. It's early, of course. But there is great optimism in the Emerald City. If the marquee players remain in good health, another trip to the playoffs seems in the cards.

Sam Bradford's injury is good news for the other teams in the NFC West. Without a stable QB, the Rams will struggle. Arizona and San Francisco appear to be as formidable as last season. The Cardinals edged the Chargers, while the 49ers trounced the self-immolating Cowboys. (Why is Tony Romo still starting?)

I was able to see the Saints-Falcons game. Atlanta appears to be rejuvenated. Matt Ryan, once again assuming his marquee receivers and running backs can stay healthy, should have his team in contention this year.

Lastly, I watched the Colts-Broncos game on Sunday night. Denver is a formidable team who added impact players on defense. The Broncos manhandled Indianapolis who could not get a rush on Manning with Robert Mathis absent.

So every Sunday I will be back in the true bachelor's position: reclining on a mattress on the floor, the day speeding by as the action unfolds on my small color television set. Sometime at the beginning of February the ritual will draw to a close and the naked bear will crawl reborn from his cave.

NFL Week 19: Divisional Playoff Round

Standing in the queue this morning at Starbucks I was greeted by servers wearing handsome Seahawks 12th Man t-shirts. A good omen? Hard to say. My neighbor, the super of the apartment building where I have lived for the past decade, a guy my age and a fellow sports-on-TV junkie, had this to say the other day when I ran into him on the stairs to our third-floor residences: "It is hard to beat a team three times in a row."

Ah, yes. Words of wisdom. But I think it is a tall order for the Saints to come to CenturyLink Field and hand the Seahawks a loss. Granted, last week the New Orleans defense contained the premier running back in the National Football League; and, granted, the Saints own ground game was terrific; -- I am betting that Seattle has too much defense -- a well-rested defense with springy legs -- for the Saints. It will tighter than the Week 13 34-7 blowout, but it will be a Seattle victory nonetheless. Take the Seahawks.

New Orleans at Seattle is the Saturday afternoon game. The Saturday evening game has the Colts at Foxboro Stadium to take on the Patriots. Andrew Luck has been getting a lot of ink after his comeback win over the Chiefs. I don't think that T.Y. Hilton is going to run crazy in the secondary at Foxboro. Though the forecast is for warmer weather tomorrow -- temperatures in the 50s with rain -- I don't see massive breakdowns in a Belichik defense. Combine that with what I think is a potent Patriots rushing attack and the passing of Tom Brady and I say take New England.

Quickly on the Sunday games, I'm taking San Francisco. Kaep is too strong, and the 49ers defense is too cagey. True, the Panthers have a dynamite defense. But the Cam Newton-led offense is mediocre.

I'm going out on a limb and taking San Diego. The Chargers are the hot team now, and they have proven they can win in Denver. I love the Mathews-Woodhead-Brown ground game. And for some reason I think it is Philip Rivers moment.

NFL Wild Card Round Takeaways

A few choice words on the result of the NFL wild card round. The first thing that has to be mentioned is my poor performance. I went 0-4. Last year I was 4-0 for the wild card round. What happened?

Saturday began well for me. I expedited two loads of laundry before 7 AM and then rested until the 1:30 PM (PST) K.C.-Indy kickoff. I was overjoyed by the Chiefs' domination of the first half. Alex Smith played masterfully at quarterback, Knile Davis ran with force for a concussed Jamaal Charles, and the Kansas City defense intercepted Andrew Luck. But in the second half the Chiefs defense collapsed, T.Y. Hilton ran rampant in the secondary, and Andrew Luck looked like he was Canton bound. My takeaway? Don't bet against Andrew Luck when he has home field.

The outcome of the evening match-up of New Orleans at Philly should have been foreseen, but I was bedazzled by the Eagles offense and underwhelmed by the Saints defense. Well, as it turned out, Rob Ryan did a great job keeping Foles-McCoy-Jackson in check. One factor that I did not foresee and was critical to the Saints win was their running game. Though Pierre Thomas was absent due to injury, Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson showed up big time. My takeaway? The Seahawks will have a tougher game on their hands than the Monday night regular season steamrollering of New Orleans. Look for Sean Payton to establish a ground game.

After staying in bed basically all day Saturday, reading newspaper stories on the unraveling of Uncle Sam's imperial project in South Sudan, I awoke at 6 AM and washed a sink of dirty dishes, scanned the headlines online, and then set out on my "Big Man's Run." I got home and juiced a lime and settled back on the mattress just in time for the start of San Diego-Cincy game. This was the one lousy game of the weekend, and of course the outcome was entirely predictable. That didn't prevent me from making the wrong choice and believing that somehow Marvin Lewis would right himself and that Andy Dalton wouldn't make incredibly poor throws and bad choices at quarterback. My takeaway? Don't pick the Bengals in a playoff game and don't rule out a Charger upset in Denver. The San Diego rushing attack of Danny Woodhead, Ronnie Brown and Ryan Mathews is awe-inspiring.

The final contest of the weekend was worth the wait. San Francisco-Green Bay lived up to the hype. My takeaway? I am a fool to have thought that Kaepernick was going to self-destruct in the single-digit temperatures of Lambeau Field. Kaep is the real deal. The 49ers will roll on. The Panthers defense is tough, maybe the toughest, but Kaep & Co. will find a way to win.

Now, enjoying my first Sunday evening in a long time without the televisual specter of football, I plan to eat dinner and continue my Breaking Bad immersion.

NFL Week 18: Wild Card Playoff Round

In both Saturday games the home team is favored by two-and-a-half points. Kansas City travels to Indianapolis for the first game. And you would think this would be a no-brainer since the Colts dominated the Chiefs at Arrowhead a couple weeks back. But for some reason I'm going with Kansas City. I think the Chiefs reverse their second-half-of-the-season slide and find some focus and mental toughness. I think speedsters Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster find sure footing on Lucas Oil Stadium turf, and Brandon Flowers contains T.Y. Hilton. So long as Alex Smith doesn't throw a bunch of interceptions Kansas City rolls on. The Saturday evening game should be a humdinger. The Saints are not known for their prowess on the road. But you know Drew Brees is going to pile up the yards against the Eagles defense if last week Dallas backup Kyle Orton was able to throw for over 350 yards and two TDs. I don't see Rob Ryan's defense being able to contain LeSean McCoy or Nick Foles. Philadelphia should win in a shoot-out. The early game Sunday has San Diego visiting Cincinnati. The Chargers have proven they can beat anybody this year by knocking off both Indianapolis and Denver. Couple this with the fact that Marvin Lewis' Bengals are 0-4 in the playoffs and you can imagine a situation where the seven-point underdog Chargers pull off an upset. But I don't see it happening. What's different about this Bengals team is the depth on both offense and defense. Take Cincinnati. The premiere match-up of the wild card round is the Sunday afternoon game in Green Bay. The Packers can knock off the 49ers. Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb are back in the lineup, and Eddie Lacy and John Starks are a potent rushing combination. The weather is supposed to be freezing. It's hard to go against San Francisco. The 49ers have been on a roll lately; along with Denver, they've been playing the best football in the league. But I like Green Bay in this one. The Packers have a habit of underperforming when they are favorites going into the playoffs but surpassing expectations when they are underdogs.

NFL Week Seven: Luck Beats Broncos

I wanted to get to bed early last night. By early, I mean 8:30 PM. I was unable to because the Sunday night game -- which was promoted as if it were a Biblical event: "Peyton Manning's return to Indianapolis!" -- turned out to be excellent. Andrew Luck and his young Colts knocked off Manning's unbeaten Broncos. Indianapolis did it playing straight-up football -- rushing Manning with Robert Mathis and playing man-to-man coverage with a secondary that flies under the radar (Demaryius Thomas was shut down and Wes Welker was held in check until late in the fourth quarter).

But the game ball should go to the young QB from Stanford. Luck played pretty much a flawless game. He missed on a few throws -- in particular one to Reggie Wayne in the fourth that would have put the game on ice (Wayne ended up leaving the game on that play with a knee strain when he tried to suddenly change direction to compensate for Luck's underthrow) -- but those were minor details in an otherwise commanding performance. Luck ran well, passed with strength and accuracy, and showed a lot of poise and grace. The guy is the real deal. The question about the Colts is whether they can win consistently on the road against lesser opponents.

As for Peyton Manning and the Broncos, I was glad to see them go down. Manning has always seemed to me to be a repository of white privilege, a media icon in praise of McMansions and lily-white suburbs and SUVs and profligate consumption. (If you haven't noticed, that paradigm is a bust.) Colts owner Jim Irsay set off a firestorm in the media last week by stating the obvious, that Peyton Manning was no Tom Brady and he had no regrets in letting him go.

Nonetheless I was surprised to see how ineffective Knowshawn Moreno was rushing the ball; he has been a monster of late. Also, I was a little taken aback that both Welker and Demaryius Thomas could be reduced to non-factors for most of the game.

The result is a good win for the Colts. Now there is only one unbeaten team in the National Football League -- the Chiefs of Kansas City. I finally got to see the team in action. CBS broadcast the game against the Texans. I was impressed, even though the Chiefs beat a collapsing Houston club by a single point.

Kansas City seems to have it all: a fast, canny quarterback in Alex Smith; a superb running back in Jamaal Charles; and, last but not least, a dominant defense led by the great Tamba Hali; plus, the Chiefs have an awesome ballpark, Arrowhead Stadium, recently named home of the loudest crowd roar.