NFL Ratings Drop Revisited

National Football League television ratings have rebounded from the doldrums of October, but they are still below last year's, according to an article by Thomas Barrabi, "NFL TV Ratings See Post-Election Boost":

Since the election, national NFL games across broadcast and cable are averaging an audience of 18 million viewers, according to Nielsen data obtained by FOXBusiness.com. That’s a nearly 17% increase from the period from the start of the season up until the election, when national NFL games drew an average of 15.4 million viewers.

Sustained success by the 11-1 Dallas Cowboys, owner of the NFL’s largest fan base, has helped to boost TV ratings. The Cowboys’ win over the Washington Redskins drew 35.1 million viewers, the highest total for a regular-season game in more than two decades. Similar, the Cowboys’ victory over the Minnesota Vikings on December 1 drew 21.8 million viewers, making it the most-watched Thursday Night Football game in the series’ history.

The data suggests that at least some viewers are dedicating more time to the NFL since the outcome of the election was decided on November 8. But overall, TV ratings are still down across the board compared to last year.

During the 2015 season, CBS said it drew an average of 19.1 million viewers, while FOX said it drew an average of 20.75 million viewers.

NFL media executives addressed the ratings decline in an internal memo in October. At the time, ratings across all networks were down 11% through the first four weeks of the season, ESPN’s Darren Rovell reported.

"Prime-time windows have clearly been affected the most, while declines during the Sunday afternoon window are more modest," NFL executives, Brian Rolapp and Howard Katz, wrote in the memo obtained by ESPN. "While our partners, like us, would have liked to see higher ratings, they remain confident in the NFL and unconcerned about a long-term issue."

Aside from election coverage, pundits offered the NFL’s concussion scandal, a series of player protests during the National Anthem, cord-cutting and the league’s oversaturation of the television market as potential reasons for its ratings struggles.

President-elect Donald Trump took credit for the ratings decline during an October rally in Cincinnati, Ohio.

“Then you look at the NFL. Well, now they should start recovering, but their ratings were so far down, and you know what that reason was? This -- because this business is tougher than the NFL,” Trump said.

NFL executives are whistling past the graveyard. The ratings drop is clearly a long-term issue. If not for the spectacular season of "America's Team" -- for some reason people have always loved the Dallas Cowboys -- viewership would be down by more than a couple million.

As a general principle I like to pay attention to low-brow entertainment -- professional football, comic books, etc. -- because I believe it corroborates aspects of the political zeitgeist.

In the case of the NFL ratings drop, I think it mirrors the loss of faith in the Establishment, the political and mainstream media, whatever you want to call the reigning center, that has led to the rise of Trump and now the Deep State's counterattack by ginning up a Fake News crisis against a New Cold War/McCarthyite backdrop.

The NFL will have no such recourse. A majority of the games remain terrible, nearly unwatchable, like Sunday's Green Bay blowout of Seattle. The Seahawks have never been blown out in the Russell Wilson era. That's four years never having lost a game by more than ten points. That's an amazing achievement. A first like that has to augur something.

One could argue that it is just a natural changing of the guard. But it is not. Rising powers like Tampa and Tennessee remain mediocre. Overall offenses are inconsistent and defenses don't dominate. Performances are weird, lackluster.

I think the reality of CTE and the enormous amounts of money are finally suffocating amazing athleticism. Repeat head trauma and corporate concentration of wealth pretty well sums up the United States.

NFL Week 19: Divisional Playoff Round

Last week the Colts undid me. I foolishly went with the Bengals thinking that their ground game would be the difference. Indianapolis shut it down, and Luck, with plenty of time to throw, completed passes at will. The Colts were impressive. They hadn't impressed me all season. Whether they can go into Denver and do the same thing against the Broncos is a whole different question.

Here are my picks for the divisional playoff round.

Ravens at Patriots: It is foolish to bet against New England at home, but I have done it before, and Baltimore is two out of three at Foxoborough in their last three playoff games there. I loathe the Patriots more than any other franchise in the NFL, even the Cowboys. This one is easy for me. Take Baltimore. Disregard the wisdom of Las Vegas (Patriots by a touchdown) and disregard the legitimate question "Who covers Gronkowski?" Go with Flacco and Ngata, Suggs and Forsett.

Panthers at Seahawks: For Cam Newton to go before the 12th Man and come away with a victory would be tantamount to a miracle. We live in a fallen age. The miraculous is absent. Seattle will be fresh from a week of rest. Marshawn Lynch's legs will be ready for another Super Bowl run. Take Seattle.

Cowboys at Packers: Vegas favors Green Bay. Rodgers' calf injury is troubling. Calves take a long time to heal. I like Eddie Lacy in this one though. DeMarco Murray's broken hand is still bothering him. Dez Bryant is not going to be dominant in the 20-degree weather of Lambeau Field. Take Green Bay.

Colts at Broncos: Here is where Indianapolis' Luck runs intro trouble. Manning much maligned of late will outshine, failing arm and all, his Colts replacement. C.J. Anderson should play well. Take Denver.

NFL Week 18: Wild Card Playoff Round

My biggest disappointment going into the weekend is that I will not be able to watch the Cardinals-Panthers game. Why? I don't have cable; I use digital rabbit ears. So if it is not on broadcast TV, I don't see it. Unless I go out to a bar. I did that once for one game of the 1998 World Cup, and I regretted it. I sat at the bar on a Saturday morning and tried to watch Italy vs. Norway while on either side drunks pestered me. They were like noisy children competing for attention, criticizing my interest in soccer as un-American.

Since the National Football League receives an antitrust exemption from the federal government, the principal advantage of which is that it allows team owners to bargain collectively with the television networks, a proviso should be added to the exemption that mandates all playoff games must appear on broadcast television.

This is the first NFL playoff game to appear exclusively on a cable channel. My fear is that this move means that the NFL will go the way of the NBA and Major League Baseball, leagues where most of the playoff games appear only on cable. I have written my Congressman.

As for the games of the wildcard round, here are my picks:

Cardinals at Panthers: Vegas has lost confidence in the miracle workings of Bruce Arians. Carolina is a six-and-a-half-point favorite at home, equal to the margin granted to Cowboys over the Lions. I am not a Cam Newton fan, but his play has improved as the Panthers have gone on an end-of-season tear. He has thrown only one interception in the last three games. I have yet to see the rejuvenated Panthers play. The last full game I saw is when Seattle beat them in week 8, and then Carolina was a team in free fall. I have seen the Cardinals play recently. And with Ryan Lindley at the helm, they are a team in free fall. Take the Panthers.

Ravens at Steelers: This is a tough one. The Vegas line is Steelers by 3. It is hard to go against Pittsburgh at home, but Le'Veon Bell is out. The Ravens get Haloti Ngata back from his Adderall suspension. Plus, I like Justin Forsett. Possibly Roethlisberger could win this game with his arm. Look what Philip Rivers did to Baltimore. Nonetheless, take the Ravens.

Bengals at Colts: The Vegas line is Colts by three-and-a-half points. Even though A.J. Green is out and the Bengals don't win in postseason, I'm going out on a limb here to say Cincinnati will triumph. I like the Bengals defense and their running game with Jeremy Hill; also, Andy Dalton running the read-option. The Colts have not impressed me this season.

Lions at Cowboys: Dallas could be playing the best football in the league right now. The Cowboys are an offensive juggernaut. Everyone is peaking: Romo, Witten, Murray, Bryant, Beasley. There is a possibility for an upset here though. Detroit's fearsome defensive line could knock Romo out of the game. Dallas will counter by running the ball with Murray or going with the quick dump off pass to Lance Dunbar and Cole Beasley. On defense, the Cowboys will devote all their attention to Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson, daring the Lions to beat them with Joique Bell. I would like to see Detroit win this game, but I don't see that happening on Sunday. Take Dallas.

NFL Week 17: Home Field for Seattle

I realized last night as I watched Snowpiercer (2013), Bong Joon-ho's innovative post-apocalyptic thriller that doubles as an allegory for how traditional societies (as well as storytelling) work, what a degradation of one's humanity it is to toil at a job 50-out-of-52 weeks a year.

Hard on the heels of this realization was the thought that what keeps the passengers pacified as the U.S. train hurtles off the rails is the National Football League. The NFL is the preferred opiate of the American masses. Without it there would be little coherence to our national character right now. One can safely assert, I think, that the National Football League is the only game in town.

Then I went to bed thinking about the four games the Seattle Seahawks lost this season. What stands out about those games is that the Seahawks can definitely be beaten. You beat them by running the ball, dumping the ball off to a back in the flat, and connecting with the tight end. That is on offense. On defense you shut down Marshawn Lynch and you keep Russell Wilson in the tackle box.

Two teams -- San Diego in week 2 and Dallas in week 6 -- dominated Seattle this season. The two other losses by the Seahawks -- St. Louis in week 7 and Kansas City in week 11 -- were fourth quarter nail-biters and could have easily gone Seattle's way, the kind of games that routinely went the team's way last year's Super Bowl season.

So to take a stab at the question -- "Can the Seahawks repeat?" -- we need to zero in on the San Diego and Dallas games.

In both those games the Seattle defense was on the field far too long. The Chargers killed the Seahawks with Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead; Philip Rivers connected on short-to-medium range passes all day long. Kam Chancellor was not a 100% coming back from off-season hip surgery. K.J. Wright couldn't cover Antonio Gates. In the game against Dallas it was running backs DeMarco Murray and Joseph Randle who did the real damage. The Cowboys racked up 401 yards to Seattle's 206. Byron Maxwell and Bobby Wagner left the game with serious injuries.

In those two games the Seahawks offense was a Formula One race car with timing problems; it couldn't sustain drives. It would score quickly; then, in succeeding drives, would repeatedly go three-and-out. This was in the Harvin era.

When all is said and done, the big coaching misfire for Pete Carroll's staff this season will be the inability or the mistaken decision to try to convert the Seattle offense, oriented primarily around the rushing of Marshawn Lynch, to a sleek, super-fast pass-first West Coast-style offense. For whatever reason, it didn't work. Carroll and Bevel couldn't get the parts to mesh and Harvin was sent packing labeled as a malcontent. I think the real reason for the failure is that to run that type of offense you need a drop-back passer with an acute sense of timing and a lot of touch. Drew Brees, who is maybe an inch or a half-inch taller than Russell Wilson, can run that type of offense. But at this stage in his career Russell Wilson cannot. Russell Wilson is a scrambler and a superb rushing quarterback who can drop a ball in over coverage but he is not an "all eyes on me" pure passer. He needs a Marshawn Lynch in the backfield to anchor his attack.

Once the Seahawks returned to the offensive scheme that won them a Super Bowl and the defense returned to health they have been the best team in the league. If they were to play either San Diego or Dallas now Seattle would win. Outside of the 49ers and Frank Gore during the first half of the game in week 15, no team has run on the Seahawks defense since KC's Jamaal Charles in week 11. And no team has beat them this year by throwing long. Beast Mode is cranked up and running. Russell Wilson is connecting to Owen Willson, who finally realized his speedy potential as a receiving tight end last Sunday night. The offensive line has been a shambles and the defensive line is penalty prone. But besides these two shortcomings, the Seahawks are sound. They are young, still hungry and filled with leaders -- Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, et al.

The Vegas line has Seattle by 13 over the Rams. If the Rams hope to win, St. Louis will have to play an error-free game while at the same time hoping that Seattle self-destructs with turnovers and key injuries. Such an outcome is unlikely. The Rams will need to run the ball and Shaun Hill must be able to complete passes to his tight end Jared Cook. We will know quickly if St. Louis has a prayer.

I say Seattle wins this game and cinches home-field for the playoffs. In many ways, the Seahawks are a better team than they were last year at this time.

In the AFC, the only team at this point that I can see beating New England is Pittsburgh. The Ravens might sneak in if the Chiefs can beat the Chargers, which I think is probable. And Baltimore has shown a knack for beating Belichik in the post-season. So all hope is not yet lost. The Patriots might yet be kept from the Super Bowl.

NFL Week 16: Colts vs. Cowboys; Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Two weeks remain of the regular season and all divisions are still up for grabs in the NFC. The big games to watch this Sunday are Indianapolis at Dallas and Seattle at Arizona.

I haven’t studied the Colts closely. I saw bits and pieces of their come from behind victory against the Browns in Cleveland, and, prior to that, I witnessed televisually the first two quarters of the Sunday night Jonas Gray demolition of their run defense. And needless to say I am not impressed by the Colts. T.Y. Hilton is a dynamite wide receiver and Luck is a strong quarterback. But now in year three of their Pagano-rejuvenation the Colts strike me as a team in decline.

The big question about Sunday’s game in Dallas is less about the Colts and more about the Cowboys. It seems incredible to me that Jerry Jones (let’s not fool ourselves, Jason Garrett decides nothing of critical importance in Big D) would play DeMarco Murray the same week of his hand surgery. But that is what is being reported today. No doubt, the game is important. But why risk further injury to your #1 player? I think Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle are good enough, along with Romo passing to Jason Witten and Dez Bryant, to easily beat the Colts. It has to be a ruse by the Cowboys.

I will be cheering for the Colts though. I dislike Dallas immensely, as I believe most Americans do (except for Chris Christie and others who have been unselfed from a very young age). The appellation “America’s Team” is a tagline meant to aggravate the masses.

The Sunday night game is the marquee match-up of NFL Week 16. The current Vegas line has Seattle by 7.5 to 9 points over Arizona. If Seattle wins, the Seahawks will qualify for the playoffs. Seattle will have to win one more time next week against the Rams to secure a shot at home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

I asked a lot of different people here in the Seattle area what team was going to win. Everyone said Seattle. This makes me a little skittish. Such unanimity often portends a fall. Bruce Arians is a wily competitor. The offensive line for Seattle has been atrocious. Yet, even assuming the Cardinals defense somehow generates a few turnovers, I don’t see Ryan Lindley beating the red-hot Seahawks D.

Let’s go Seahawks! Onward to victory!

NFL Week 14: A Prayer for the Bears + Patriots Stock Plummets

Let's hope that NFL Week 14 gets started on a positive note tonight with an upset of the Cowboys at Soldier Field. Game-time temperatures should be a bit above freezing and with a little luck the snow that is forecast for Chicago tomorrow will arrive early. Romo, with a bad back, can't be expected to wheel and deal on an icy field.

The Bears are a team bereft of leadership. Urlacher retired; Peanut Tillman watches from the sideline for a second-straight year; Marc Trestman is a cold fish; and his QB, Jake Cutler, a sullen, self-absorbed chronic underperformer. This is not a prescription for success.

But at moments Chicago can stand proud. I point to the NFL Week 2 second-half comeback against the 49ers as proof. Alshon Jeffery, nursing a bad hamstring that night in Santa Clara as he is now, had a huge game and Cutler threw with accuracy; at the same time the Bears defense came alive and looked stout.

You might say that Week 2 is a long-time gone. And you would be correct. But in Dallas I see a club on the ropes. The Cowboys were throttled on national television Turkey Day by Philadelphia. Jason Witten's repeated sideline tantrums said it all. Clearly the Cowboys peaked too early, and now they are in the process of winding down. The outcome I am looking for here is for Jerry Jones' "America's Team" to once again fail to qualify for the post-season. A loss to Chicago brings that one step closer to reality.

The Sunday night game for NFL Week 14 should be worth staying up for. Belichick's Patriots exposed themselves against the Packers for what they are: a perennial powerhouse that fades down the stretch. Brady is an aging quarterback who, like the Patriots as a whole, is hard to bet against at home. But send him on the road and put a few pass-rushers in his face and New England becomes little better than a good .500 ball club.

Brady highlights how out of place an immobile quarterback is in today's game. For all the celebration of a Peyton Manning or a Tom Brady both are very beatable come playoff time because opponents usually come equipped with a pass rush and a few shutdown DBs. Look how unimpressive Eli Manning has been the last couple of years without a Giants running game to make the threat of  play-action credible. We might be witnessing the end of the era of stand-tall-in-the-pocket, immobile QBs. We'll see who wins the Super Bowl this year. If it is Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson again, the trend will be undeniable.

The biggest advantage for Belichick is San Diego's tendency to self-destruct. Plus, the Chargers run defense looks porous based on their performance against the Ravens. Justin Forsett ran for over 100 yards. But in the end Rivers was able to put more points on the board than Flacco. I like Rivers' chances to do the same against Brady.

NFL Week Six: The Seahawks Dethroned

Tonight NFL Week Seven gets underway with a Jets-Patriots match-up in Foxborough. Belichik's Patriots are the closest thing to a machine in the NFL. The last several seasons though, since their Super Bowl XLVI defeat by the Giants, New England has looked all too human.

Nonetheless, Belichik, though I have loathed his teams for decades, is hard to bet against. He knows how to win, and his Patriots, led by the aging "teen idol" Tom Brady, are always atop the AFC East. A couple Sundays back I caught the first half of the evening game against the undefeated Bengals. Brady led the Patriots offense with ruthless precision.

The Rex Ryan Jets are another story. Once endowed with the league's most formidable defense, the Jets at 1-5 are a team adrift. Ryan probably should have been fired at the end of last season. Maybe tonight New York will surprise us, but that is most unlikely. The Patriots at home have proven to be almost unbeatable in the regular season.

Now that these Thursday night games are available on broadcast television, I must say that I look forward to them; it is something akin to the tradition of the Thursday night party that fraternities put on while I was at the university. Though I was never a member of a frat, their Thursday night parties had a spillover effect for everyone else on campus -- a bridge to the weekend, a way to chop down the five-day work week.

But the Thursday night game is not what I want to talk about. I want to talk about the humiliating defeat suffered by the Super Bowl XLVIII Champion Seattle Seahawks by Dallas.

I tossed and turned all night long this past Sunday. I awoke every 90 minutes. The most searing episode was around 2 AM when I jolted up muttering to myself about the offense.

While it is true that the defense was manhandled by the Cowboys, if the Seahawks had mustered one or two sustained drives, I think the outcome would have been different. The planned and hoped for (by the Carroll brain trust) transformation of the offense this year from a power-rushing attack to a West Coast style passing attack has, after five games, been a bust. It's time to either return to Beast Mode or start heaving bombs down the field to Harvin and Richardson.

I've compared these weekly posts on the NFL to a dream journal, a brief mostly colorless record of my bachelor Sunday waking dream life, lying on my mattress on the floor in front of a 13-inch color TV, absorbing the various telecasts from 10 AM to the end of the Sunday night game on NBC. Well, the Cowboys-Seahawks Week Six game was a nightmare. Prompting the question, Why am I so attached to this team? Sure, they are Super Bowl Champions. But the Holmgren Seahawks were almost Super Bowl Champions -- and I loathed that team.

It has something to do with the composition of the squad. The fact that the Seahawks marquee players are all black, young and appealing (to me at least) has a lot to do with it. Even though a Richard Sherman and a Marshawn Lynch are extremely wealthy by working-class standards, they strike me as representative of the rest of us struggling on the front lines of the rat race with our degraded lives at work.

The reverse image of the National Football League is the repetitious, "trial by ordeal," soul crunching, 50 out of 52 weeks a year American way of earning a living where no respect is given and any dignity we manage to display we do on our own dime.

But the home team offers an idealized space where we are young, strong, fast and potent. Every Sunday we are allowed to transfer our identity out of our mundane, hopeless lot to a collective consciousness of positive actualization.

Until, of course, a beat down like last Sunday happens. Then one's world is turned upside down. The order of the mundane soulless routine is cast asunder. I began to question my attachment -- and how attachment defines identity.

To make matters worse, on the train ride to work Monday morning, a bevy of Cowboys fans, wearing their team jerseys and sporting Lone Star paraphernalia, crowed and boasted of their dominance on their way to the airport.

One guy, a black guy from Baton Rouge sporting a Dez Bryant jersey, traveling with his young son and demure wife, was particularly boorish. Talking at the top of his voice for 45 minutes, he relived the entire game, belittling the Seahawks -- "There's no way they're going back to the Super Bowl. No way. They're done." -- celebrating the dominance of his Cowboys. A young white couple with big dark blue Lone Stars on their chests nodded and cackled in agreement at every dull pearl the Baton Rouge Dez Bryant uttered.

I gritted my teeth and tried to read the newspaper. It was painful, but I held my tongue. Then when the train pulled into its last stop at the airport station I couldn't resist one parting comment. "Well, for your sake, I hope you can keep DeMarco Murray healthy."

The young white couple politely responded, "Oh, yes."

But Dez Bryant, with a foul look smeared on his face, didn't say a word. He knows the truth. The truth is that DeMarco Murray has been injured each of the last two seasons, missing a significant amount of time. When that happens the Cowboys become one-dimensional with Romo throwing the ball non-stop. They don't win that way.

Murray already has 130 carries after 5 games. Chances are good given past history that he will sustain another injury. I don't wish that upon DeMarco Murray. He is an excellent running back and seems like a good young man. But Dez Bryant from Baton Rouge should be a little more discrete on a commuter train in Seattle. Dallas has not won the Super Bowl yet.

As for the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks, things do not look good. Injuries on defense and an offense that cannot establish a rhythm (and haven't been able to all season minus the home opener against Green Bay) portend a brutal, painful year ahead.

I've been down this road before with the defending Super Bowl Champion San Francisco 49ers during the 1985 regular season. That season changed my life. I became an alcoholic. I dropped out of the university for a semester. The 1985 49ers showed true grit just to make it to the playoffs as a wild card.

We'll see what the Seahawks are made of -- if they have the toughness of those '85 49ers. Sunday in St. Louis will be a good indication. The Rams are a dangerous team despite their poor record. St. Louis was up early at home against Dallas and San Francisco. Both the Cowboys and the 49ers were able to come back. But the Seahawks so far have not shown an offense that can mount a comeback.

In a nutshell, NFL Sunday Week 7 will point the way to whether Seattle makes the playoffs. A loss to the Rams means that the Seahawks will not repeat as Super Bowl Champions.

The Colt 45 Chronicle #78

Like San Diego earlier in the season, Dallas is putting the beat-down on the Seahawks. What makes this game different is that it is happening in Seattle. No team has dominated Seattle at home  in the Russell Wilson era like the Cowboys did in the first half. 

The Seahawks defense can't get off the field on third down. Seemingly every third down Romo is able to connect for big yardage by dumping the ball off to a running back. The Chargers were able to do the same thing. When the Seahawks get the ball on offense they can't generate first downs. So it is three and out and back on the field comes the tiring defense.

Just as the first-half blowout of the Seahawks by the Falcons in the 2012 playoffs led me to retrieve these old letters out of storage, I am driven again to them for a little solace.

Sadly, there is not much to be had in the letter below, which is an adulatory "thank you" note to my friend Greg for putting up with me on my extended Bay Area stay the Christmas '88/New Year '89 holiday season. He lined up work for me as a laborer on a construction site, work which enabled me to fly back home to my wife in New York City.

While I re-typed the old letter to Greg, the Cowboys turned the ball over two times and Seattle scored 10 points. So the Seahawks are back in the game. The fundamentals haven't changed though. Seattle can't move the ball consistently on offense while Dallas can. Seattle will be lucky to win this one.

Winter 1989

I have noticed now that every day it's getting more pronounced. I have adopted a certain Greg mannerism. It's not the sort of mannerism which is public, like an aspect of speech or something of that nature; it's a mannerism born of solitude, performed for oneself. The one I'm talking about is the one where the hand is placed roughly waist high so the arm is extended vertically but not fully vertical; you see, there is a slight bend in the elbow. But what makes this mannerism unique and unique to you Greg is the action of the hand itself, how the hand sits on that vertical arm. The hand is horizontal. The palm is placed flat, like it is pushing off the ground, but the only thing is that there's all this space between the down-placed palm and the floor. The other thing to be mentioned about this mannerism of yours, which is now also one of mine, is that the action isn't entirely up and down, you know, like, I guess, a mummy or Frankenstein thing. The edge of the hand comes into play. The edge of the hand leads, subtly but persuasively; there's kinda of a backhand grip. I have found myself doing this all of a sudden while I am here in NYC this week, which I guess is my home finally and irrevocably for the next few years. I'll be talking/mumbling something to myself, like how I've got to do this or read that, and the next thing I know I'11 be doing the Greg mannerism. It's a motion that settles me down, something that says, "Okay, let's reconnoiter here. Let's size everything up, and then we'll deal with it." I know I've seen you do this before, and I know I saw it performed a few years ago. What were we saying? Sumner of '87? Was that the summer in downtown Oakland? I know it's unique to you. And anyway, now I'm doing it, now for some reason, like it's a glow worm burrowing up my spine and into my brain, taking control.

The other thing I was thinking about on my way up to the corner store, tripping over the same crack in the same sidewalk in the same general vicinity of the Hudson (little shining fiberglass ice slivers on concrete), for these beers I've been drinking was how beautiful and happening and pleasant -- a real couple for the '90s -- you and Tresca were to hang out with, and this even though I must have been a sore-thumb imposition on a new and blossoming relationship. You guys were truly great, and I fully and completely appreciate it.

Cowboys Fans + "Entrance to Jah World"

One of the nice things about going for a long run on game day when the home team is in town is you come across fans from the visiting team wearing their jerseys.

Today it was two Dallas guys: one with Romo's #8; the other, Sean Lee's #50. A tribute to white America. Where was Orlando Scandrick's #32 or DeMarco Murray's #29?

I wished them luck as I jogged past. They turned and thanked me appreciatively. But I could tell they knew I was a Seahawks fan, clad in a green nylon running shirt as I was. So they were a little confused. Why was I wishing them luck? I could see the wheels turning behind their eyes.

I was wishing them luck because the Seahawks at home have luck to burn. The 12th man is powerful magic. Russell Wilson has only lost one at home, last year's unsavory standout defensive performance by the Cardinals. (Calais Campbell injured his knee last weak at Denver.)

I feel good about Seattle's prospects today. The Seahawks defense -- its basic run-stopping formation -- has been superb. This means Romo puts it up, which means picks. The Cowboys hot streak has come at home. I expect they won't be as hot on the road before one of the most formidable crowds in the National Football League.

As I finished up the run, August Pablo's "Entrance to Jah World (Extended 12" Mix w. Dub)" shuffled on my iPod. The Seahawks are a black team, champions, in a white man's world.

"Entrance to Jah World (Extended 12" Mix w. Dub)" is off the four-disk retrospective The Mystic World of Augustus Pablo: The Rockers Story (2008), which is incredible.

Turkish Support for ISIS Makes the Front Page + NFL Weeks Four & Five: Cowboys Riding High

It is all out in the open now. The only thing that prevents an interpretation of events in Iraq and Syria along the lines of the left-of-center perspective -- that Islamic State is a creation and ally of Gulf Arab Sheikhdoms and Turkey (with an assist from U.S. intelligence agencies) designed to fracture the Shiite axis of Syria-Iran-Hezbollah -- from cohering into the settled, dominant narrative is willful ignorance.

A boundary has been crossed, I believe, with today's story by Mark Landler, Anne Barnard and Eric Schmitt about the imminent fall of the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobani, "Turkish Inaction on ISIS Advance Dismays the U.S." The reporters come right out and say what has been said for a long time in the Left media (and was said just yesterday on Counterpunch by Patrick Cockburn): Turkey prefers a Kurdish and Assad defeat to the defeat of Islamic State.

While Turkish troops watched the fighting in Kobani through a chicken-wire fence, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said that the town was about to fall and Kurdish fighters warned of an impending blood bath if they were not reinforced — fears the United States shares. 

But Mr. Erdogan said Tuesday that Turkey would not get more deeply involved in the conflict with the Islamic State unless the United States agreed to give greater support to rebels trying to unseat the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. That has deepened tensions with President Obama, who would like Turkey to take stronger action against the Islamic State and to leave the fight against Mr. Assad out of it.

Mr. Erdogan has also resisted pleas to send his troops across the border in the absence of a no-fly zone to ward off the Syrian Air Force.

Even as it stepped up airstrikes against the militants Tuesday, the Obama administration was frustrated by what it regards as Turkey’s excuses for not doing more militarily. Officials note, for example, that the American-led coalition, with its heavy rotation of flights and airstrikes, has effectively imposed a no-fly zone over northern Syria already, so Mr. Erdogan’s demand for such a zone rings hollow. 

“There’s growing angst about Turkey dragging its feet to act to prevent a massacre less than a mile from its border,” a senior administration official said. “After all the fulminating about Syria’s humanitarian catastrophe, they’re inventing reasons not to act to avoid another catastrophe. 

“This isn’t how a NATO ally acts while hell is unfolding a stone’s throw from their border,” said the official, who spoke anonymously to avoid publicly criticizing an ally.
Secretary of State John Kerry has had multiple phone calls in the last 72 hours with Turkey’s prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, and foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, to try to resolve the border crisis, American officials said. 

For Mr. Obama, a split with Turkey would jeopardize his efforts to hold together a coalition of Sunni Muslim countries to fight the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. While Turkey is not the only country that might put the ouster of Mr. Assad ahead of defeating the radical Sunnis of the Islamic State, the White House has strongly argued that the immediate threat is from the militants. 

But if Turkey remains a holdout, it could cause other fissures in the coalition. It is not only a NATO ally but the main transit route for foreigners seeking to enlist in the ranks of the Islamic State.

So everything is pretty much out in the open. Turkey, a country that for years has been the gateway for jihadis on their way to battlefronts in Syria, has blocked Kurds from rushing to defend Kobani. The Turkish military sits by and watches ISIS shell the city. This led to an outbreak of protests by Kurds in Turkey yesterday. Erdogan, according to Landler et al. is trying to exact concessions from both the U.S. and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party,

Analysts say the Kurds of Kobani are being held hostage as Mr. Erdogan seeks to wrest concessions not only from Washington but also from Kurdish leaders, his longtime domestic foes. 

The aim, said Soner Cagaptay, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is to weaken Turkey’s outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or P.K.K., in peace talks with the Turkish government. 

Turkey also wants the Kurdish fighters to denounce Mr. Assad and openly join the Syrian insurgents fighting him. But the fighters and local political leaders accepted control of Kurdish areas when Mr. Assad’s forces withdrew earlier in the Syrian war, and have focused more on self-rule and protecting their territory than on fighting the government. In some places they have fought alongside government troops. 

The impasse leaves Kobani isolated. Some refugees are literally pressed against the fence, unwilling to cross because they cannot take their livestock, and sometimes blocked by the Turkish authorities, who have also stopped Syrian and Turkish Kurds from crossing into Syria to fight the Islamic State. 

Tear gas wafted near the border on Tuesday, as Kurdish men packed the streets of the town of Suruc to protest Turkish policy; demonstrations broke out in several cities across Turkey. In Diyarbakir, at least 10 people were killed and more than 20 were injured in clashes between sympathizers of a pro-Kurdish party and a group known for its Islamic affiliations, while the authorities ordered schools to close in several southeastern cities, the Haberturk news channel reported. 

On one small stretch of the border near Kobani, a fleeing Syrian Kurd, Omar Alloush, said a Turkish soldier had looked on as an Islamic State fighter addressed Syrian Kurds across the border fence, telling them they were welcome to return as long as they abided by the group’s extreme interpretation of Islam. 

“We will never trust those people,” Mr. Alloush, a member of a Kurdish political party in Kobani, said by telephone. 

Yet another hillside spectator, Avni Altindag, a Kurd from Suruc, said the Islamic State was stronger than a few air raids. 

He pointed to the men watching the smoke rising over Kobani, who were chanting for the People’s Protection Committees, a Kurdish group known as Y.P.G. that is battling the Islamic State in the town’s streets. “They used to come with high expectations of strikes against ISIS, but all are disappointed,” he said. 

Mr. Altindag blamed Turkey. “They don’t want to help what they say is their enemy,” he said. “This is why it is in Turkey’s favor that Kobani falls to ISIS.”

One would think that now that the ISIS ruse has been exposed -- that it is clear that U.S. allies are actually allies first of ISIS (see Biden's Harvard Kennedy School speech) -- that Obama would drop his efforts to placate the Saudis and Turks by toppling Assad's government. But indications are that he is sticking to the disastrous policy that brought us to the chaos we are experiencing today. Yesterday, at the end of a story by Karam Shoumali and Anne Barnard, "Slaughter Is Feared as ISIS Nears Turkish Border," there were four paragraphs that support the notion that sporadic U.S. airstrikes of ISIS positions in northern and eastern Syria are a smokescreen for its regime change operations in Syria:

Elsewhere across Syria, insurgents struck on two fronts against government forces. 

North of Aleppo, insurgent groups including the Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front and the American-backed Harakat Hazm fought government forces that recently seized the town of Handarat. Fighters from Hazm, which has been supplied with American-made TOW antitank weapons, have destroyed government tanks in recent days, rebels say. Rebel spokesmen on Monday said they were pushing hard to take back the town of Handarat and had captured foreigners, including Afghans and Lebanese, fighting on the government side. 

In an unusual battle near the border with the Golan Heights in southern Syria, another United States-backed group, the Omari Brigades of the Syrian Revolutionaries Front, took a government air defense base on the hilltop of Tel al-Harrah and posted a video of several fighters with what they said was Russian-made government air defense equipment. 

A covert United States effort to equip and train relatively moderate insurgents there has had few major successes. More aid has been promised to groups deemed moderate by American officials as part of the campaign against the Islamic State. But it was unclear whether the recent victory was because of new equipment or organization, or if it benefited from recent victories in the area by the Nusra Front.

Islamic State's siege of Kobani began in earnest the middle of last month, about the time I put up the flyer (below) in my cubicle at work:

I went online this morning to see if I could find any news about yesterday's march. It turns out that the flyer must have been changed once it had been sent out -- I received it in the mail from Workers World -- because it is actually today. The destination of the march is a World Business Forum event at Radio City Music Hall.

A powerful capitalist distraction for the working masses in the United States is the National Football League. The story of the last two weeks -- NFL Week Four and Week Five -- has been the rise of the perennially hapless Cowboys of Dallas. Week Four the Cowboys destroyed the Saints on Sunday night; Week Five, they held on in OT to beat their Lone Star rivals, the visiting Texans. Though they had the better of Houston most of the game, the Texans came back on the legs of Arian Foster. In the overtime period, Romo threw up a blind Hail Mary that Dez Bryant somehow came up with. The completion set up the game-winning field goal.

So Dallas is not only playing well, but the Cowboys are also lucky. You don't want to rely on luck to win games, but I find luck is a good indicator of a team's potency. To make a Super Bowl run, a team not only has to be dominant but lucky. The Seahawks were excellent last year, but they were also lucky.

The strengths of Dallas -- I got to see both the Week Four and Week Five Games -- are in its big, young offensive line and its DeMarco Murray powered ground game. Romo has been bridled and lucky so far. He is coming off back surgery, and he's not playing as petulantly as he has in the past; he is not constantly dropping back to pass and throwing picks.

Another bright spot has been the play of the Dallas defense, which strikes me as more consistent this season and less prone to giving up the big play.

We'll find out what Dallas is made of when they come into town to play Seattle on Sunday. The Seahawks enjoy a great homefield advantage. And while their pass rush has not been as successful as last year, the run defense has been stellar.

My sense is that the Cowboys will find a way to self-destruct. Murray is injury prone, and so too is Romo of late. The Seahawks will come into Sunday's game more focused after being penalized more than a dozen times (erasing three touchdowns by Harvin!) on a spotty Monday night victory over the free-falling Redskins.

Thanksgiving NFL Games

For many years, after I had given up on living with a woman but I still maintained a girlfriend, I rigorously defended my right to spend Thanksgiving alone. I refused all offers from friends, family, girlfriend and girlfriend's family to share their table and give thanks collectively in favor of spending the day alone in my studio watching the Thanksgiving Day National Football League telecasts.

I have fond memories of these Thanksgivings. The apartment building would be quiet, deserted; the other tenants, gone elsewhere to celebrate the holiday. I would go out for run in the morning, and then spend the rest of the day cooking, eating a meal and watching the games. A small slice of nirvana.

This Thursday the games on tap are less than ideal. The first Thanksgiving game is always hosted by Detroit. This year it features the wounded Packers with high-priced castoff Matt Flynn almost certainly to start. The Lions have difficulty with Green Bay; lately Detroit has been playing unfocused football, losing to Pittsburgh and Tampa. The line has the Lions three-and-a-half point favorites, and they're at home. But I consider the game a toss-up. It's Flynn for Stafford. I've got to go with Stafford. Take the Lions.

The next game, which is now the second game since a night game has been added to the Thanksgiving schedule, is always hosted by big D. The Raiders -- perpetually wounded, perpetually suffering -- arrive in Arlington six-and-a-half point underdogs. The Cowboys looked decent against the Giants (giving me my only loss in games that I have picked so far this year). New York was not able to exploit the absence of middle linebacker and defensive signal-caller Sean Lee. Bruce Carter played well. Romo was solid. But Dallas has a nasty habit of playing poorly when the team is a favorite at home. While I'd love to see Oakland win, I think it would be a huge upset if they did. Take the Cowboys.

Finally, the Thanksgiving evening game on NBC features two perennial powerhouses each now staggering in Week 13 at 5-6. Pittsburgh deserves credit for scratching its way back into contention. Baltimore appears to be a shadow of the team that last year put together one of the most remarkable playoff runs in NFL history. This is another toss-up. Ray Rice appears to be running better in the last couple of games, but Dennis Pitta is still on injured reserve. The Steelers receivers are coming into their own. Pittsburgh is on a three-game win streak, but the Ravens are at home. I'm sitting this game out. May the best team win.

A word on Week 12. I threw in the towel on the Sunday night game at halftime. I figured that the Patriots were cooked. Twenty-four to zero with no evidence that Brady could thrown in the wind and the Broncos running backs racking up big yardage on the ground, the game, for all intents and purposes, was over. I felt shameful for having picked New England at home. But in the end, plaudits for Belichik's Patriots, a team I loathe, for hanging tough and coming back to win in OT against a formidable Denver team. It's a kind of win that could loom large for New England come the playoffs.

Loya Jirga + NFL Week 12

The loya jirga begins tomorrow in Afghanistan. It will decide whether to approve the Status of Forces Protection Agreement (SOFA) close to being hammered out by the government of Hamid Karzai and the United States. According to a report today by Rod Nordland, "Afghans Demand That U.S. Admit Military Errors," everything is settled, even the contentious issues of immunity from Afghan law for U.S. forces and the continuation of the counterterrorism practice of raiding private homes. The only item pending is a letter of apology from Obama for military blunders:

With one day remaining to finalize the wording of the security agreement before the loya jirga meets, [Aimal Faizi, Karzai's spokesman] said that was the remaining issue in talks, carried out in their last phase by Mr. Karzai with the American ambassador, James B. Cunningham, and the American military commander, Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. 

“The rest, everything is solved,” Mr. Faizi said.

It will be interesting to see the size of the U.S. military footprint once the loya jirga, whose participants are handpicked by Karzai, signs off on the SOFA. Iraq refused the customary U.S. demand for immunity during its SOFA negotiations, which led to a complete withdrawal of American forces. At the end of last month al-Maliki made an official visit to Obama to ask for drones and Apache helicopters to combat an Al Qaeda insurgency raging in Iraq. There is no doubt that without a substantial military commitment by Obama Karzai will be fleeing Kabul in a matter of months, if that, after U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan next year.

The Afghan loya jirga starts tomorrow, but so too does Week 12 of the National Football League season with the 8-2 Saints traveling to Atlanta to take on the hapless 2-8 Falcons. Surveying the big games nothing really pops out. The hometown Seahawks have a bye week. Next Monday night they will host New Orleans in a possible playoff preview. Seattle looked impressive in the second half against the Vikings. The Seahawks continue to underwhelm at home in the first half. The defense looks lackluster, though, to its credit, they completely dominated Adrian Peterson from start to finish. The remaining five games will tell Seahawks fans a lot about how far their team is going to go towards the Lombardy Trophy. The schedule is: Saints at home, 49ers away, Giants away, Cardinals home, Rams home. Each game is a potential loss. Besides the obvious challenge offered by conference powers New Orleans and San Francisco, New York is surging, as is Arizona, and St. Louis almost beat us at home last year. So Pete Carroll needs to get his team better prepared coming out of the bye than it was last year when they dropped a game they should have won in Miami. In that game the run defense and pass rush were piss poor.

Two Week 12 games promise to be interesting. The Cowboys travel to New Jersey to take on the Giants. The Giants have won four in a row after losing their first six games. The Cowboys have been banged up on defense. Without having watched a complete game of New York's this season, I'm taking the Giants over Dallas.

The other game that is worth watching is the Sunday night match-up between the Patriots and the Broncos. Much as I loathe to do it, I've got to take New England at home. Yes, Denver looked impressive at home against the Chiefs, but I'm convinced that Belichik as an underdog at home with Brady at QB in the premiere televisual event of the week is a safe bet. (Belichik often performs poorly as a favorite; but as an underdog, he is money in the bank.) Take the Patriots.

NFL Week Eight: Teams Figuring Out Russell Wilson

The Seahawks win last night in St. Louis was a gift. If Rams placekicker Greg Zuerlein is successful on his 50-yard fourth quarter field goal attempt, St. Louis wins the game. Instead of having to punch the ball in at the Seahawks goal line in the waning seconds of the game all the Rams would have needed to do was trot out Zuerlein for an automatic three points.

As it was the Seahawks defense, despite giving up two-hundred rushing yards, held strong, allowing Seattle to return home with another road win against a divisional opponent.

This marks the third game in a row -- Titans, Cardinals, Rams -- that defenses have basically shut down Russell Wilson. The only game of the three that wasn't close was the win against the Cardinals, and that was due to Marshawn Lynch's dominant running.

Teams are blitzing the Seahawks quarterback. They're loading the box and overwhelming the offensive line. Until Seattle finds a way to consistently beat that kind of pressure expect teams to continue to come with the heat. Percy Harvin's return should help, as would finding ways to connect on short passes to Lynch coming out the backfield.

****

Question: How much longer do you stick with Mike Vick? His bum hamstring took him out of the game against the the suddenly resurgent Giants. An Eagles loss combined with the Cowboys collapse in Detroit means the NFC East remains the Keystone Cops division.

NFL Week Six: Dodging a Bullet

The Tennessee Titans came to town this past Sunday (on a jog that morning I passed a couple, the man wearing a Jake Locker jersey, and wished them luck) and the Seahawks were lucky to keep their home winning streak alive.

If not for a mediocre-to-poor game behind center from Locker fill-in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Seattle would have lost that game. The Titans were successful at preventing Russell Wilson from connecting on the long ball. I am beginning to notice a pattern with Wilson where he will tuck the ball and run now much more quickly this year than last. It must be a change in philosophy by the coaching staff, one that I generally agree with. Certainly last year I always wondered why Wilson didn't take off and run more often rather than "Tarkenton-ing" around behind the line of scrimmage. But now that long completions to Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Sidney Rice are memories growing ever more faded, I am a little hesitant to fully embrace a run-first Russell Wilson.

In the end, despite a potentially game-changing fumble by Marshawn Lynch that Russell Wilson recovered, the Seahawks got on track thanks to the former Cal Berkeley running back's rushing and receiving, not to mention a great sideline grab by Sidney Rice.

Seattle had to win. The Seahawks are on the road for the next two games against division opponents, starting tonight in Arizona. A loss at home prior to tough away dates would have limited chances at the Super Bowl to a long shot. Seattle has to post the best record in the NFC to have a real shot at Super Bowl XLVIII in New Jersey. The New Orleans loss in Foxborough helped. There are no more unbeaten teams in the NFC.

The early game on CBS was a match-up between defending champs Baltimore Ravens and the seemingly perpetually banged-up Green Bay Packers. The Packers came away with a big road win, 19-17. Randall Cobb and James Jones left the game due to injuries. This left Aaron Rodgers with a reduced receiving corps. He came up big nonetheless with a long ball to Jordy Nelson. Eddie Lacy had a big day on the ground for the Packers, rushing for 120 yards, and the Packers defense looked good, continually pressuring Flacco and shutting down Ray Rice. A.J. Hawk looked great.

The Sunday night game was a lackluster NFC East contest between Dallas and Washington. I took away from that game a couple of things: Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray gets hurt a lot, and RG3, following his knee surgery, is not the player he was last year. Maybe he'll get better. Maybe he needs longer to heal. But right now without his jets he's a mediocre player. Redskins phenom running back Alfred Morris is playing hurt as well.

NFL Week Five: Cracks in the Facade

If you ever wanted to see how to beat the Seattle Seahawks Indianapolis showed the way. When the Colts went to the hurry-up in the third quarter of Sunday's game they systematically wore down Seattle's defense. The Seahawks pass rush disappeared, exposing the much-celebrated corners Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner as less than their hype. T.Y. Hilton appeared to have his way with the two, particularly Browner. Andrew Luck played a smart game behind center. Minus one critical third-down conversion by Trent Richardson in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks shut down the Colts running game.

With the game on the line and enough time on the clock to take his team to paydirt Russell Wilson failed to get the job done; certainly the defense let down in the second half, but so too did the Seattle offense, repeatedly settling for field goals. Marshawn Lynch had a big drop in the fourth quarter when he turned too late to see that Wilson's pass was already right on top of him. He was wide open and would've had a first down if not a touchdown and the game at that point would have been entirely different.

Well, you can't win them all. The Patriots figured that out, losing in Cincy to a streaky Bengal squad; if they ever get a solid running game and consistent play from QB Dalton could be a team to watch. Denver survived a bizarre game in Dallas that was like something you would play on the street with a few friends and a Nerf football. The final score was 51-48. For a while, Tony Romo looked like Brett Favre at his peak. I am now suspicious of the Broncos defense.

The Falcons are in free fall, losing to the lowly Jets last night. The Saints remained unbeaten, as do Andy Reid's Chiefs. Everywhere I see feet of clay and nowhere a clear king of the hill.

Seahawks Pass Rush Disappears Again

Drinking lots of coffee and watching the home team underperform isn't a smart way to relax; also, I've been popping up off my bed on the floor where I watch the game to periodically check online the status of the fiscal cliff negotiations in the Senate.

The Seahawks pass rush disappeared.  The last time they lost, Week 12 in Miami, was largely due to the lack of a pash rush in the fourth quarter allowing rookie QB Ryan Tannehill to move the Dolphins down the field at will.  Today Sam Bradford had time to sit in the pocket and zip throws to his wideouts.

The Rams on the other hand had a mighty pass rush, sacking Russell Wilson time and time again.  But to the credit of Darrell Bevel there was no panic, no major shift in the play calling.  Seattle stuck with the read option and piled up good yardage on the ground.  Then the Seahawks got a lucky break break in the 4th quarter when Marshawn Lynch fumbled but Seattle recovered beyond the first down marker.  Golden Tate came through with a huge catch thanks to a Russell Wilson scramble, and we were on the way to our fifth win in a row.

Never having lost at home this season, to lose now in the final game would have been bad.  But the home team hung tough.  Now it's the playoffs at either the Cowboys or Redskins.  I'm rooting for RG3.