Before picking the champions of the AFC and NFC a few words on the divisional round. Clearly the most glaring performance from last weekend was the spiritless effort put in by the Denver Broncos. To be honest with you, I can't think of the last time I watched a playoff football game where I witnessed such manifest surrender. It was like looking at a bunch of millionaires pretending to be concerned about the outcome of a match they couldn't care less about. Judging from the shots of the stands about half the home-field crowd had cleared out by the fourth quarter even with the score close enough to easily allow a Denver comeback. But by then the fans knew better.
I was fooled by the Broncos and so was Las Vegas. I am a novice, but the Vegas line is big money in service of big business. They are infrequently as wrong as they were in setting Indianapolis vs. Denver line (Broncos -6.5). My excuse is that I hadn't watched a full Denver game, that I can recall at least, since the big Peyton Manning adulation orgy when he broke Brett Favre's career TD record and the Broncos blew out the 49ers on Sunday night. At that point Denver looked like the best team in the NFL.
Now John Fox is out, as he should be, even after four consecutive AFC West titles. And I would be surprised if Peyton Manning will be back. It is clear what you need in the NFL to win. You need passion and focus and talent. And I believe you need mobility at QB. Denver has talent but none of the rest. It will be interesting to see if Brady ends up in his sixth Super Bowl whether an immobile QB can win a world championship in today's game.
The Packers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship Game a touchdown underdog. Green Bay is not particularly fearsome on the road. If you saw the Pack's NFL Week 15 beat-down by the Bills you know what I mean. Rodgers' calf injury gives a big edge to the Seahawks defense, while Russell Wilson has been playing at a high level. Green Bay could pull off an upset. But it would take another tremendous effort from Rodgers. And he generally does not provide that on the road. Take the Seahawks.
The late game on Sunday is more difficult for me to pick. New England is a touchdown favorite, which makes sense given how poorly Indianapolis has performed at Foxborough in the past and given how on fire Brady was last week against the Ravens; the guy was brilliant. But I have seriously underestimated the Colts two weeks running; they have been -- believe it or not -- the dominant team in the playoffs this year. And it has been the Indianapolis defense that has been doing the dominating. The Colts shut down Jeremy Hill and then they shut down C.J. Anderson, both better backs than any the Patriots have.
The counterargument is that both the Bengals and the Broncos were all but finished before the first snap. The Bengals ravaged by flu and without a concussed A.J. Green didn't offer much fight, and the Broncos performance was a charade. So the argument here is that the Colts have been lucky with their draw so far, but the Patriots will be different.
I think there is something to this. But I have learned my lesson about going against Indianapolis this playoff season. The Colts secondary is better than the Ravens, and Chuck Pagano is hungry. Take the Colts in a upset.
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