NFL Week 20: Championship Round

Before picking the champions of the AFC and NFC a few words on the divisional round. Clearly the most glaring performance from last weekend was the spiritless effort put in by the Denver Broncos. To be honest with you, I can't think of the last time I watched a playoff football game where I witnessed such manifest surrender. It was like looking at a bunch of millionaires pretending to be concerned about the outcome of a match they couldn't care less about. Judging from the shots of the stands about half the home-field crowd had cleared out by the fourth quarter even with the score close enough to easily allow a Denver comeback. But by then the fans knew better.

I was fooled by the Broncos and so was Las Vegas. I am a novice, but the Vegas line is big money in service of big business. They are infrequently as wrong as they were in setting Indianapolis vs. Denver line (Broncos -6.5). My excuse is that I hadn't watched a full Denver game, that I can recall at least, since the big Peyton Manning adulation orgy when he broke Brett Favre's career TD record and the Broncos blew out the 49ers on Sunday night. At that point Denver looked like the best team in the NFL.

Now John Fox is out, as he should be, even after four consecutive AFC West titles. And I would be surprised if Peyton Manning will be back. It is clear what you need in the NFL to win. You need passion and focus and talent. And I believe you need mobility at QB. Denver has talent but none of the rest. It will be interesting to see if Brady ends up in his sixth Super Bowl whether an immobile QB can win a world championship in today's game.

The Packers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship Game a touchdown underdog. Green Bay is not particularly fearsome on the road. If you saw the Pack's NFL Week 15 beat-down by the Bills you know what I mean. Rodgers' calf injury gives a big edge to the Seahawks defense, while Russell Wilson has been playing at a high level. Green Bay could pull off an upset. But it would take another tremendous effort from Rodgers. And he generally does not provide that on the road. Take the Seahawks.

The late game on Sunday is more difficult for me to pick. New England is a touchdown favorite, which makes sense given how poorly Indianapolis has performed at Foxborough in the past and given how on fire Brady was last week against the Ravens; the guy was brilliant. But I have seriously underestimated the Colts two weeks running; they have been -- believe it or not -- the dominant team in the playoffs this year. And it has been the Indianapolis defense that has been doing the dominating. The Colts shut down Jeremy Hill and then they shut down C.J. Anderson, both better backs than any the Patriots have.

The counterargument is that both the Bengals and the Broncos were all but finished before the first snap. The Bengals ravaged by flu and without a concussed A.J. Green didn't offer much fight, and the Broncos performance was a charade. So the argument here is that the Colts have been lucky with their draw so far, but the Patriots will be different.

I think there is something to this. But I have learned my lesson about going against Indianapolis this playoff season. The Colts secondary is better than the Ravens, and Chuck Pagano is hungry. Take the Colts in a upset.

NFL Week Nine: Agony in Houston, Seattle's Disappearing Run Defense + Aaron Rodgers' Broken Collarbone

This past Monday night Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game on the opening drive when he was sacked by Chicago defensive end Shea McClellin. Seneca Wallace came off the bench. Green Bay was effective on the ground but not through the air. Wallace gets even fewer reps in practice than most backups. The Bears won the game 27-20, dropping the Packers into a three-way tie in the NFC North with Chicago and Detroit. Rodgers is out for at least a month with a broken collarbone.

Prior to the loss Green Bay was probably playing the best football in the NFC with the exception of the 49ers. Despite their conference leading 8-1 record, the Seahawks continue to stumble along. Their OT win at home against the hapless Buccaneers was a gift from the gods. Tampa Bay dominated the game for the better part of three quarters. Rookie running back Mike James ran for 158 yards on 28 carries. The only thing that prevented him racking up even more yards was exhaustion. By the fourth quarter you could tell he was gassed. Seattle's run defense has disappeared. The week before in St. Louis another rookie running back, Zac Stacy, put up big numbers, 134 yards on 26 carries. James and Stacy didn't accumulate their yards by cracking off single runs of over 80 yards; no, they gobbled up turf five to eight to ten yards at a time, chewing up the clock and keeping Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson on the sideline. Unless the Seahawks solve this problem all their good fortune will come to naught.

I began Sunday watching the Chiefs-Bills game. Buffalo, playing at home, put up impressive numbers both on the ground and through the air. Turnovers on offense doomed them. At this point I can't say that I am believer in Kansas City being the pick of the AFC. Let's wait and see how they do against Denver.

I ended Sunday by turning off the Colts-Texans game in the third quarter thinking that Houston had the game in the bag. The Keenum-to-Johnson connection looked unstoppable and Ben Tate, cracked ribs and all, was running well. Imagine my surprise when I woke up Monday morning and saw that Luck had done it again. It is not often that I turn off a game before a comeback; I think it happens only once every other year. Kubiak's halftime collapse was an ill omen.

I'm not ruling the Texans out just yet. Case Keenum is a good QB. The defense is sound. A win in Arizona next week could be enough to spark a string of victories that, depending on how things go with Indianapolis, could keep Houston in the running.

The Seahawks fly to Georgia, the scene of their playoff elimination last season. A convincing win against a reeling Falcons franchise would augur well for a young squad with big games upcoming against conference powers New Orleans and San Francisco.

The Colt 45 Chronicle #38

Super Bowl XXIV was the zenith of the Joe Montana-era San Francisco 49ers. Montana was named Super Bowl MVP for the third time as his 49ers, bringing home the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the fourth time, steamrollered John Elway's Broncos 55-10.

Sports teams, sports leagues, sport seasons, playoffs, championships mark time like nothing else. As the last decade of the millennium began that January, it was the beginning of the end for my marriage, as it would turn out to be for Joe Montana appearing in the Super Bowl. Time is a most mysterious thing. A major preoccupation of western philosophy is whether man has the ability to know time. I definitely felt something was afoot, that some momentous shift was underway that winter. The 49ers had never looked so machine-like as they did that year. They had a slightly better record in their 1984 championship season, and that was probably a better team. But it was a joyous affair, whereas the 1989 San Francisco 49ers were all corporately-perfected business.

The next season the 49ers would equal their 14-2 regular season record of 1989. Montana was reaching a level of control and mastery at quarterback that is hard for us to understand today -- like Drew Brees, but mentally stronger; like Tom Brady, but more able to create opportunities for victory; like Aaron Rodgers, but more of a leader. If you want to see what I'm talking about, check out the 1990 NFC Championship Game between the New York Giants and the 49ers. Before Montana is knocked out of the game by a vicious blindside Leonard Marshall hit, he is in control -- a man at the top of the game.

That hit by Marshall would cause Montana to miss nearly two seasons with an elbow injury. When he returned, Steve Young had assumed leadership of the 49ers. Eddie DeBartolo traded Montana to the Kansas City Chiefs in the spring of 1993.

By that time I was divorced, living in Brooklyn with my new girlfriend and getting ready to move to Texas. I would listen on the kitchen radio in San Antonio as Montana made his playoff run that 1993 season with the Chiefs. But the loss the 49ers suffered to the New York Giants in the 1990 NFC Championship that brought the Montana-era to an abrupt end -- I watched the game at a friend's Manhattan basement apartment --would also spell the end of my life as I lived it up until then, a life lugubriously recorded in this "Colt 45 Chronicle." From the spring of 1990 forward I would lead a much more solitary existence. My transition to this new lifestyle and the end of the Joe Montana-era will be told in Shit Stinks, a spontaneous prose document written the summer of 1991. But for now, it's letter number 38.

Winter 1990

Mark!

I'm tardy in my correspondence. Let me explain. I believe that when I wrote you the last time I spent a small amount of space filling you in on my resignation (immediate and verbal) from the polluted Wall Street law offices of DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL. Well, as it all turns out, I was out of work for almost a month, enough time to enjoy the eerie, truly eerie, 49ers devastation of any and all playoff competition. It was so goddamn eerie and alien for me, a dyed-in-the-wool career 49er sufferer and supporter, that I would hit the bourbon and get speech-slurring drunk, being better able to deal with what was going to happen next by looking at it through flannel gauze Jack Daniels glasses. Anyway, it ended joylessly in New Orleans in the most perverse -- most lopsided -- scoring orgy in the history of the Super Bowl.

NFL Week 3: The Poverty of Pittsburgh

Granted, only the third game of the season is complete; and granted, the team the Seahawks thrashed 45-17 this past Sunday was the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars, led by former Seattle defensive coordinator of the last four seasons Gus Bradley, it is nonetheless beginning to look like Pete Carroll has a bona fide Super Bowl contender.

The National Football League is hard to gauge this early in the year. It usually takes until the end of November to get a sense of which teams are peaking. And even then it's still a tough call. Who could have foreseen the amazing playoff run the Ravens put together last season?

One of the nice things about the lopsided Seahawks-Jaguars game is that it allowed me to unyoke myself from the television and wash a sink of dirty dishes.

The morning began with a study of the Green Bay loss at Cincinnati to the Bengals. It looks like it's going to be a long, stressful year for Aaron Rodgers. A porous defense, injuries at running back and tight end and some poor throws by the Packer quarterback portend trouble ahead.

By far the strangest spectacle from Week Three for me was the Sunday night game. I can't recall having seen such a weak Steelers team. (There was a time after Bradshaw retired and Mark Malone was QB that Pittsburgh was woeful, but that was long ago.) Pittsburgh managed to claw back into the game against the visiting Bears before Roethlisberger fumbled and Julius Peppers returned it 42 yards for a fourth quarter touchdown.

"Smart Money" Dumb

The two teams hyped the most by sports writers have been eliminated.  It seemed liked everyone was picking Green Bay to return to the Super Bowl.  And in the AFC though there wasn't an equal amount buzz about Peyton Manning's Broncos they were heavy favorites against Baltimore.

Kaepernick demolished the Packers defense.  The 49ers put up 45 points and Kaepernick with his sprinter's speed rushed for 181 yards, both a regular season and playoff record for a quarterback. Much like last year's Green Bay loss to the Giants Aaron Rodgers never got into the flow of the game.

The Ravens-Broncos double overtime game was tremendous, a televisual smorgasbord.  Despite two touchdowns on special teams from Trindon Holliday, a strong performance from running back Ronnie Hillman and home field advantage Denver could not get it done.  It says a lot about the true grit of the Ravens. They were all banged up -- the game last week against the Colts was not a cakewalk -- and then to have to travel and play a single-elimination game on the road at altitude and then to win that game in double overtime by intercepting a pass from the great Peyton Manning, the old Raven defense on the field play after play after play, tells me do not rule this team out.  As Ray Lewis eloquently said on the field right after Justin Tucker's 47-yard game-winning field goal, "God is amazing . . . Man believes in the possible. God believes in the impossible." How nice; what a complex conceptualization that is.  The NFL on TV packs a wallop.

Divisional Playoff Game Picks

There are only two new-breed quarterbacks left -- Wilson & Kaepernick; one hybrid -- Aaron Rodgers, a guy who can run like a young Joe Montana but whose arm is stronger; and the rest are all the classic white-privilege stand-tall-in-the-pocket American war machine hegemons -- Brady, Manning, Flacco, Ryan and on a good day Schaub.

Here are my picks for this weekend.  First game of the weekend on Saturday is Baltimore against Denver.  Denver is a good team.  A rejuvenated Manning is part of that success but I think a lot of the Broncos first seed is due to their defense.  Smart money is on Denver at home.  But I'm a Ravens fan.  So I'm going with Baltimore.

The Saturday night game is a real humdinger.  Packers-49ers.  I think San Fran wins this because of an Aldon Smith pass rush that is going to harry Aaron Rodgers all Candlestick night long.  Kaepernick will play well.

Sunday morning it's the Seahawks-Falcons.  Can Wilson & Lynch do it again?  I hope so.  I think it's going to be a tough game though.  I think if we can get some pressure on Matt Ryan early and our defense doesn't capitulate in the fourth quarter we'll win.  Seattle in a nailbiter.

Last game of the weekend is Texans-Patriots.  New England is a big favorite.  My head says most likely the Patriots will key on Arian Foster and shut him down and win easily.  My heart says that Arian Foster will perform heroically.  I can't pick the Patriots.  I'm going with my heart.

Texans Roll + Joe Webb Underwells

My impression of yesterday's action is that everything pretty much went to script.  Arian Foster ran well which set up the play-action pass for Matt Schaub.  One phase of the game that stood out was the manner in which Texans tight ends Owen Daniel and Garrett Graham consistently beat the Cincinnati linebackers, Rey Maualuga in particular, on crossing patterns for catches of 10-15 yards.  Since Andre Johnson was largely held in check this was critical; it prevented the Bengals from keying on Arian Foster and making the Houston offense one-dimensional.

The Texans have a good defense. J.J. Watt played with his usual intensity.  Andy Dalton seem harried.  Jonathan Joseph bottled up A.J. Green until the second half.  All in all it was a good game.

The conventional wisdom is that the Patriots will repeat their Week 14 demolition of the Texans.  It's hard to find fault with this.  Cincinnati wideouts had Houston defensive backs beaten long several times but Dalton couldn't connect.  Unless Tom Brady is having a rare off day the Texans won't be so lucky in Foxborough.  I'll be rooting for Houston though.

One thing that didn't go to script yesterday was the game-day scratch of Christian Ponder because of a bruised triceps.  Joe Webb started and on the opening drive ran the read option and Minnesota almost scored a touchdown but ended up having to settle for a field goal.  This was the last hurrah for the Vikings.  For some reason Minnesota abandoned the read option and Webb started to pass from the pocket.  He had no touch.  He short-hopped balls or threw out of bounds.  On defense the Packers were able to keep Adrian Peterson from getting to the edge.  Green Bay basically had the game won by the end of the first half.

When Joe Webb filled in a couple games for an injured Brett Favre at the end of 2010 season I was excited.  He was big and fast and could throw; he changed the whole vibe of the game on offense; he beat the Eagles.  I thought he was going to be a player to watch in 2011.  But then the Vikings made the poor decision to sign Donovan McNabb who was a washout with the Washington Redskins.  Then when McNabb was benched Ponder got the start.  Webb disappeared until now.  It's too bad he didn't run more out of the pocket last night.

While not playing spectacularly, Aaron Rodgers performed at exactly the level needed to notch a convincing win against a gritty divisional opponent.  My concern going into Candlestick Park next week is what Aldon Smith is going to do.  Rodgers has taken a lot of sacks this year.  It's hard not to pick the 49ers in this one.  Unless Green Bay's defense really steps up and shuts down Kaepernick and creates some turnovers the 49ers are going to the NFC Championship Game.

Orgy of NFL Action the Next Two Weekends

The orgy of NFL action begins tomorrow.  For the next two weekends there will be two playoff games televised each Saturday and Sunday.  By the time the conference championships games  arrive at the end of January I'm usually ready to throw in the towel.

I'm hoping Arian Foster has a big day tomorrow and that the Texans triumph.  Not that I don't like the Bengals.  I just love to watch Arian Foster run. 

Since I'm a Berkeley man I've got to go with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay.  One of the largest disappointments from last season was how he underperformed in the playoff game against the Giants.

My prediction is that the Ravens will have a big day on the ground against Indy.  I appreciate the Ravens.  The largest disappointment of last season was Lee Evans not hanging onto the football in the end zone to beat the Patriots. 

And the final game of the weekend the ascendent Seahawks travel to Maryland to joust with chivalrous RG3 and his fellow rookie Alfred Morris.  I think Darrell Bevell will have an answer to all the blitzes the Redskins threw at Dallas, if in fact that's the way Washington plays Russell Wilson.  I think our -- meaning the Seahawks -- receivers are better than Washington's.  Yes, Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss are talented.  But they're not Sidney Rice and Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin.  We've got to have production from Marshawn Lynch; he's got to run with Alfred Morris.

As an old Montana-era 49ers diehard I don't like my team having to travel back to D.C. to play a game in the dark of winter.  It's tough for a West Coast team to win on the East Coast in a winter playoff game.  But it can be done.  And I'm hoping it will be.  Afterall, this bachelor goes to bed every night wrapped in a Seahawks blanket.