NFL Week 4: "I Got a Feeling . . ."

That Seattle is going to the Super Bowl. The overtime win in Houston last Sunday was huge. It is the kind of win a team needs in a Super Bowl run. On the road, down by a large margin in the second half, nothing going your way, yet you hang tough, stay focused, get a few breaks, make a few big plays and take home the win.

The negatives. For the first three quarters Matt Schaub looked like Tom Brady. The Texans QB was able to find and connect with Andre Johnson and his tight ends whenever he wanted. The Seahawks were not able to generate a significant pass rush. Also, Seattle's run defense was shredded as Arian Foster and Ben Tate piled up yardage. Seattle does not have a good record of stopping the run on the road. Week 1 in Charlotte DeAngelo Williams had a good game (except for his fumble which led to the Seahawk comeback); now, Arian Foster.

The overwhelming positives were Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman. In those two guys you have the 21st Century Seahawks equivalents of Joe Montana and Ronnie Lott -- the insatiable appetite for victory. Shut down for most of the game, Russell Wilson jump-started the offense in the fourth quarter by his scrambles. He ended up accumulating 77 yards on the ground. Combined with Marshawn Lynch's 98 yards, Seattle had an impressive day rushing the ball. The game itself was actually salvaged by Richard Sherman's interception return for a touchdown of Schaub's ill-advised pass.

Based on net points the Broncos are the best of the five remaining unbeaten teams -- Denver, Seattle, Kansas City, New Orleans and New England -- after Week 4.

I watched the afternoon game between the Broncos and Philadelphia. Denver set a team record for points scored in a game by blowing out of the new Chip Kelly Eagles, who look just as lousy as last year's Andy Reid team. The Philadelphia offense is talented with Mike Vick at QB, LeSean McCoy at tailback and DeSean Jackson at wideout. But there is the same chronic lack of focus that plagued the club last year. At some point the conclusion has to be reached that Mike Vick is not a winner. The truth though is that it is the defense that is to blame for the Eagles' woes. At 138 points allowed in four games only the winless Giants are worse in the NFL.

Shut Off the Idiot Box

I've done something I haven't done all season. Shut off a football game -- a divisional playoff game no less, Texans-Patriots -- before the game is over. Ninkovich's interception of Schaub was all I could take and I couldn't take anymore. I didn't think I'd make it out the apartment today but after I shut off the TV I washed the dishes in the sink and actually took the recycling downstairs. I opened a fortune cookie that had been sitting on my cutting board for the last four days. It read, "A quiet evening with friends is the best tonic for a long day." So now I'm listening to some Iron & Wine albums I checked out from the library, drinking a cup of green tea and soon I'll pick up a book. (I'm still checking the Texans-Patriots game online.)

Here's a doomsday scenario for this bachelor. An Atlanta-New England Super Bowl. I'm confident that the 49ers can rush Matt Ryan in a way that the Seahawks were unable to.  But domes on the road are tough.  And, sure, the Ravens might be a team of destiny, but they're beat up from double OT. So it's a distinct possibility that we'll be watching the most unappetizing spectacle of Brady vs. Ryan in the Superdome.

I haven't felt as low after a playoff loss since Roger Craig fumbled in the 1990 NFC Championship Game (against a Belichik coached defense). It spelled the end of the Montana-era hegemony of the San Francsico 49ers. I had just moved from Morningside Heights back to Washington Heights. I was low, so low after that game that I was staring down at myself from outside my body. I referred to this period -- the break-up of my marriage and then the failure of San Francisco to three-peat -- as "Valerie disappears the 49ers umbrella." Valerie was a young lady I met on the streets of Upper Manhattan and with whom I spent a few sad nights. The 49ers umbrella was the shield from emotional harm provided by being a San Francisco football fan.

During the Seahawks comeback in the second half of today's game I fished out of storage my attempt at a spontaneous prose document -- I wouldn't want to call it a novel, more like a proto-blog written to myself on a manual typewriter -- from the period when "Valerie disappears the 49ers umbrella." It was my first official run at being a bachelor, a time of no little drama and a great deal of suffering. Hopefully in the days going forward I'll have the time to post it here. You'll read of street fights, bar fights, whores, malt liquor, subways -- the whole pitiful yarn of a young man trying to be sincere in the big city.

Divisional Playoff Game Picks

There are only two new-breed quarterbacks left -- Wilson & Kaepernick; one hybrid -- Aaron Rodgers, a guy who can run like a young Joe Montana but whose arm is stronger; and the rest are all the classic white-privilege stand-tall-in-the-pocket American war machine hegemons -- Brady, Manning, Flacco, Ryan and on a good day Schaub.

Here are my picks for this weekend.  First game of the weekend on Saturday is Baltimore against Denver.  Denver is a good team.  A rejuvenated Manning is part of that success but I think a lot of the Broncos first seed is due to their defense.  Smart money is on Denver at home.  But I'm a Ravens fan.  So I'm going with Baltimore.

The Saturday night game is a real humdinger.  Packers-49ers.  I think San Fran wins this because of an Aldon Smith pass rush that is going to harry Aaron Rodgers all Candlestick night long.  Kaepernick will play well.

Sunday morning it's the Seahawks-Falcons.  Can Wilson & Lynch do it again?  I hope so.  I think it's going to be a tough game though.  I think if we can get some pressure on Matt Ryan early and our defense doesn't capitulate in the fourth quarter we'll win.  Seattle in a nailbiter.

Last game of the weekend is Texans-Patriots.  New England is a big favorite.  My head says most likely the Patriots will key on Arian Foster and shut him down and win easily.  My heart says that Arian Foster will perform heroically.  I can't pick the Patriots.  I'm going with my heart.

Texans Roll + Joe Webb Underwells

My impression of yesterday's action is that everything pretty much went to script.  Arian Foster ran well which set up the play-action pass for Matt Schaub.  One phase of the game that stood out was the manner in which Texans tight ends Owen Daniel and Garrett Graham consistently beat the Cincinnati linebackers, Rey Maualuga in particular, on crossing patterns for catches of 10-15 yards.  Since Andre Johnson was largely held in check this was critical; it prevented the Bengals from keying on Arian Foster and making the Houston offense one-dimensional.

The Texans have a good defense. J.J. Watt played with his usual intensity.  Andy Dalton seem harried.  Jonathan Joseph bottled up A.J. Green until the second half.  All in all it was a good game.

The conventional wisdom is that the Patriots will repeat their Week 14 demolition of the Texans.  It's hard to find fault with this.  Cincinnati wideouts had Houston defensive backs beaten long several times but Dalton couldn't connect.  Unless Tom Brady is having a rare off day the Texans won't be so lucky in Foxborough.  I'll be rooting for Houston though.

One thing that didn't go to script yesterday was the game-day scratch of Christian Ponder because of a bruised triceps.  Joe Webb started and on the opening drive ran the read option and Minnesota almost scored a touchdown but ended up having to settle for a field goal.  This was the last hurrah for the Vikings.  For some reason Minnesota abandoned the read option and Webb started to pass from the pocket.  He had no touch.  He short-hopped balls or threw out of bounds.  On defense the Packers were able to keep Adrian Peterson from getting to the edge.  Green Bay basically had the game won by the end of the first half.

When Joe Webb filled in a couple games for an injured Brett Favre at the end of 2010 season I was excited.  He was big and fast and could throw; he changed the whole vibe of the game on offense; he beat the Eagles.  I thought he was going to be a player to watch in 2011.  But then the Vikings made the poor decision to sign Donovan McNabb who was a washout with the Washington Redskins.  Then when McNabb was benched Ponder got the start.  Webb disappeared until now.  It's too bad he didn't run more out of the pocket last night.

While not playing spectacularly, Aaron Rodgers performed at exactly the level needed to notch a convincing win against a gritty divisional opponent.  My concern going into Candlestick Park next week is what Aldon Smith is going to do.  Rodgers has taken a lot of sacks this year.  It's hard not to pick the 49ers in this one.  Unless Green Bay's defense really steps up and shuts down Kaepernick and creates some turnovers the 49ers are going to the NFC Championship Game.