NAFTA

With Tillerson blaming the Russians for a recent gas attack in East Ghouta you might think that we are back in Obamatime.

What did people vote for when they voted for Trump? I doubt it was for a continuation of the Obama administration's posture towards Syria.

I always figured that a third rail for Trump was his promise to scrap NAFTA. If he can't deliver, or can't fudge it, then those Obama voters in the industrial Midwest who gave Trump his margin of victory in Michigan and Wisconsin will vanish.

Round six of NAFTA negotiations are underway this week in Montreal. There is a helpful story in CNNMoney by Patrick Gillespie, "NAFTA is close to falling apart with time running out."

There are three larges hurdles: the Mexican presidential campaign season is about to begin; Trump wants 50% of car parts sourced in the U.S.; and he wants NAFTA to sunset every five years.

There is only one more round of negotiations scheduled. Trump is threatening to abrogate the agreement if he doesn't get what he wants.

I am skeptical. Nonetheless the fear is palpable in the corporate press. My guess is that he'll fudge it and draw out talks until just prior to the launch of his reelection campaign and then try to spin whatever results as a big win for the American worker.

I think if he manages to look strong on NAFTA Trump wins in 2020.