All the wild card games were good -- really good, I think; competitive, enjoyable to watch; a far cry from the average soporific regular season game -- which makes the poor television ratings for the wild card round very troubling news for the National Football League (see "After lousy regular season, NFL's TV ratings worsen in wild-card playoffs" by Michael McCarthy).
Ratings for 2017 NFL regular season games were down ten percent from the prior year, which were down eight percent from the year before. Viewership of the wild card games declined 11% from last year. The Saturday night Falcons-Rams match-up at the L.A. Coliseum was the lowest rated wild card game in that time slot in history, which is a shame because it was an excellent game.
As I've said before, the National Football League is in real trouble, facing a crisis, which mirrors American society in general. The only teams remaining in the playoffs said to have a national following (and hence good for strong television viewership) are the Patriots and the Steelers. If ratings continue to decline after this weekend when both New England and Pittsburgh play, multiple alarms will trigger in the league's Park Avenue corporate suites.
Scapegoating Colin Kaepernick -- journalists continue to dutifully list the Kaepernick-inspired anti-racist protests during the national anthem as cause number one for the ratings drop -- will no longer cut the mustard.
The bottom line is NFL games basically have been lousy for the last two seasons. Simultaneous with the collapse in the quality of play has been the league's concussion settlement. Ken Belson has a must-read story in today's paper, "He Helped Ex-Players Get Benefits. His Family Is Still Waiting.," about the efforts of Mike Webster's family to collect some settlement money. What I didn't know is that the settlement doesn't apply to any player who died before 2006. Hall-of-Famer Webster died in 2002. He was the first NFL player to be diagnosed with chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). (Accomplished character actor David Morse portrayed Webster in the 2015 film Concussion).
“Mike opened up Pandora’s box,” Pam Webster, 66, the football player’s ex-wife, said of his C.T.E. diagnosis, which has become an existential crisis for the N.F.L. because it has led to the barrage of lawsuits and to parents rethinking their children’s participation in football. “There’s no reason Mike shouldn’t be included.”Read Belson's story and you come away with the twisted, tortured nature of the sport, which, make no mistake, is a blood sport, and it is bleeding out.
I happened to have a vivid dream last night of a professional playoff football game of the future. There were no pads or helmets worn. The field was brilliant green, but much more narrow, like half as wide, or even one-third the width of a regulation football field, and the number of players was no more than six to a side. The game was fast and played full-on, but there weren't jarring hits, and the action was more continuous, like a team handball game. The reaction of my dream mind was curious: I was intrigued but disappointed; I longed for the grinding, smash-mouth strategy of the power running game. Men, I guess, are violent creatures who unknowingly yearn for destruction.
Anyway, on to the picks for the divisional round.
In the first game much is being made of the top-seeded Eagles being an underdog at home. Carson Wentz, the sophomore QB who went down with a knee injury, was the X factor for the Philadelphia. I was of the opinion that it was his scrambling out of the pocket, particularly on third down, which made the offense go. Philadelphia's offensive anemia since Wentz's injury proves that my opinion was on the money. Nick Foles is okay. He had a great 2013 season for the Eagles (it didn't hurt that he had LeSean McCoy in the backfield). But then after one more season Philadelphia peddled him to the Rams for Sam Bradford, and he has never been the same player since. (I always wondered why the Rams benched him in favor of Case Keenum, but then look at the season Keenum has put together for the Vikings.)
Foles strikes me as another Jared Goff type quarterback -- tall and willowy in the pocket -- and the Falcons seemed to handle Goff just fine. The Falcons also shut down Todd Gurley, a far better running back than anyone the Eagles can field. So that leaves the Eagles defense. Matt Ryan makes mistakes, and Philadelphia could capitalize quickly on those mistakes. But Ryan is playing focused football; he wants back into the Super Bowl to atone for Atlanta's collapse last year against the Patriots. I'm a bit concerned that if Philly goes all in with their power backs Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount the Eagles could wear down the smaller, fast Falcon linebackers. But in the end I am a Dan Quinn man. I'm taking the Falcons.
Game number two on Saturday features Tennessee against New England in Foxborough. Smart money is all on the Patriots at home. Tom Brady at 40 is hip again. I must say I have more respect for New England now than at any time in my adult life. Brady is a winner, an excellent passer, a leader. I loathe Bob Kraft and Bill Belichik. I loathe the franchise because it represents the triumph of the corporate machine over the heroic individual. But I respect the Patriots.
I was very wrong when I called the Titans false idols. In the past I had put my faith in Marcus Mariota several times in marquee match-ups, only to see the Oregon Duck choke badly. He seemed unable to perform with courage and discipline on the national stage. His second-half comeback against Kansas City proved that I had given up my faith too soon.
Mariota's touchdown pass to himself at the goal line was akin to the Rapture. For Tennessee to triumph in Foxborough would require the Second Coming. Is this it? Are we at End Times? Are we on the doorstep of Christ's thousand-year millennial kingdom? I hope so, and I'll be rooting for the Titans. But I am predicting a Patriots win.
Tomorrow's first game is Jacksonville at Pittsburgh. Jacksonville shellacked the Steelers at home during the regular season. Roethlisberger had an unusually bad game, throwing a large number of interceptions. That won't happen twice. The only reason the Jaguars beat Buffalo 10-3 was because Blake Bortles was allowed to repeatedly scramble out the pocket for large gains. That has about as much chance happening against a Mike Tomlin defense as a repeat of a QB throwing a touchdown pass to himself. Steelers win.
The final game of the divisional round is New Orleans at Minnesota. Drew Brees saved the Saints bacon by returning to superstar form. His passing accuracy was beautiful to behold. Still, the Panthers, despite Cam Newton's lethargic showing, could very well have won the game in the fourth quarter. The Vikings will put more pressure on Brees than Carolina did. Most importantly, the Vikings defensive secondary is far superior to the Panthers. Vikings win.
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