The Return of the Free Syrian Army and the Fabled "No-Fly/Safe Zone"

Judging from the hue and cry brought on by Trump's announcement of a troop pullout in northeast Syria, one would think that it was 1948 and the United States had just abandoned West Berlin to Soviet tanks. Rojava must indeed be vitally important to U.S. strategic interests in the middle east: a quasi-state chock full of secret airfields to bomb any foe anytime -- exactly what the "deep state" wants.

But Trump is angling after a two-fer here: one, he gets to pose as a peacenik -- a little appreciated aspect of his successful presidential campaign -- in the run up to 2020; and, two, he gets to implement a strategic goal long sought by Western powers in Syria, the fabled "no-fly/safe zone" occupied by Syrian rebels.

The must read article this morning is Carlotta Gall's "Syrian Rebels See Chance for New Life with Turkish Troops." The much maligned and repeatedly left for dead Free Syrian Army is back at the centers of things once more:

Mr. Trump’s decision, announced late Sunday, has been sharply criticized by politicians of both political parties in the United States as a desertion of the Kurdish-led forces — the most reliable American partners in fighting Islamic State militants in Syria. But fighters and veterans of the Free Syrian Army point out that they were also abandoned by Mr. Trump when he cut support to their force in 2017.

Now, the Free Syrian Army, which has largely been marginalized in the conflict, sees a chance to regain lost territory in its struggle against President Bashar al-Assad of Syria.

[snip]

Hisham al-Skeif, a former civilian leader of the anti-Assad uprising and a spokesman for a faction of the rebel army, said the creation of the safe zone had been negotiated to avoid clashes. Free Syrian Army soldiers would be on the ground, backed by Turkish forces, but would avoid areas where United States forces and their Kurdish-led allies were based, he said.

“We are allied with the Turks, and we are convinced this is for peace and not war,” he said. “We always say we never want to fight.”

Mr. al-Skeif said Free Syrian Army soldiers and Turkish troops were expected to occupy a strip of territory between the two border towns of Tell Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, where most residents are Arabs. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which have been allied with the United States, were reported to have withdrawn from the towns on Monday.

The operation to create a safe zone, if successful, would be a boost for Mr. Erdogan, who is under political pressure at home from splinter groups in his own party and growing public resentment against Syrian refugees.

Seen in this light, there is no U.S. double-cross of its Kurdish allies. The principal actors sat around a map and made a decision together. The U.S. has been talking to Turkey for months if not years about just this moment. What's happening now as Turkey prepares to invade is everyone is playing to their domestic audience.