Finally, a General Election in the UK

Yesterday in the House of Commons a general election was approved for December 12; following its approval today in the House of Lords, parliament will be suspended for a six-week election campaign.

The common prediction is that no one knows how the election will turn out. Boris Johnson, Tory prime minister, has been consistently polling ahead of Labour -- "more than 10 percentage points in some" -- but I'd take that with a grain of salt. The overwhelming opinion going into the last general election, June 2017, was that the Tories under Theresa May would pad their majority, yet they ended up losing seats and had to cobble together a minority government with the help of Ulster unionists.

In 2017 Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn proved to be a formidable campaigner, putting Tories on the defense for their commitment to austerity and militarism. Those themes will resonate once again with the electorate.

Robert Stevens explains that

Johnson calculates that he can win by campaigning on a message that only he will complete the Brexit agenda and fulfil the “will of the people” who voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum. He is emboldened by the stance of the Brexit Party, who have indicated that they will not stand against Tory candidates in marginal seats but will stand against Labour candidates in seats in the north of England that voted heavily in 2016 to leave.

The Liberal Democrats are seeking to increase their 19 MPs in Westminster by hoovering up the Remain vote. Johnson’s other main calculation, therefore, is that the Liberal Democrats will win votes at Labour’s expense in Remain voting areas.

Much has changed in the last four years. Brexit prefigured Trump. Voters were in the mood to "fuck shit up" in 2016, and in this they succeeded, but not in a way that they would like to see continued. Austerity, market orthodoxy, militarism -- none of it stopped or even decreased in intensity. The neoliberal paradigm didn't cease to function with Trump and Brexit; the chairs on the observation deck were slightly rearranged.

My guess is that the Tories will not perform too well. Labour will do better than expected but not by a huge margin. The Scots and Liberal Democrats will pick up seats too. Then there will be a big Blairite row over who gets to lead a coalition government because Jeremy Corbyn is unacceptable to neoliberals.