Pense-Pompeo "Ceasfire" Meaningless

Though the announcement halts fighting for five days, and gave Mr. Pence an agreement to return home with, it was in practice less of a cease-fire deal than an acknowledgment of the United States’ rapid loss of influence in Syria since the Turkish invasion began last Wednesday.

In less than two weeks, the United States’ official position has reversed from one of tacit support for Syrian Kurdish control of northern Syria — to one of total deferral to Turkish territorial ambitions in the same area. 

"Turkey Agrees to Pause Fighting, but Not to Withdraw Forces From Northern Syria," Annie Karni, Lara Jakes and Patrick Kingsley

The Pence-Pompeo "ceasefire" announced yesterday is already crumbling (see "Kurds Accuse Turkey of Violating Truce as Shelling Continues in Syria" by Patrick Kinglsey):

A spokesman for the Kurdish forces, Mustafa Bali, said on Twitter that Turkey continued to pound civilian areas and a hospital, despite the announcement on Thursday night by Mr. Pence that there would be a five-day pause in the fighting.

Syria and Russia were not included in ceasefire discussions. Since the Kurdish YPG are now allied with Syria and Russia in the contested borderlands, the Pence-Pompeo ceasefire is essentially meaningless, a ham-handed club-footed sideshow meant to draw the attention of Trump's domestic critics.

The real reason for the five-day pause is likely that the Turks faced difficulty in clearing and holding Tell Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, the nexus of the Turkish invasion. The five-day pause will allow the Turks to position more firepower and possibly work out an agreement with the Russians to use the kind of air power that was critical in conquering Afrin last year.