Monday, October 14, 2019

Rojava in Chaos

This is how contradictions work themselves out. Chaos. Now that the Syrian Arab Army has deployed to Rojava and is moving to reassert control of the M4 highway, it is hard to imagine everything get buttoned up as neatly as Moon of Alabama outlines this morning.  First, we must haver some reliable reports of the Syrian Arab Army taking control of the oil fields of Deir ez-Zor and occupying the many U.S. bases and secret airfields sprinkled throughout Rojava. There hasn't been anything like that so far.

Right now the narrative is topsy turvy. The long-demonized Assad government is virtuous for doing something the United States was unwilling to do -- defend the Kurds from Turkish attacks. While the former U.S. ally Free Syrian Army is being branded a vicious mercenary jihadist invader.

Also, much is in play on the diplomatic front. The European Union has passed a ban of weapon exports to Turkey, while the Trump administration scrambles to get out in front of congressional sanctions on Turkey. Erdogan might decide it is time to open up the refugee floodgates and swamp Greece like it was 2015.

Then there is the status of the 11,000 ISIS foot soldiers imprisoned in Rojava, not to mention the thousands of Western soldiers and contractors.

To sort all this out, a reliable hegemonic force is required. The only one that currently fits the bill is Russia.

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