Putin Blesses Erdogan's "Safe Zone"

A joint Turkish-Russian statement issued after six hours of talks between Putin and Erdogan said they would establish a “joint monitoring and verification mechanism” to oversee implementation of the agreement.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was more blunt. If Kurdish forces did not retreat, Syrian border guards and Russian military police would have to fall back. “And remaining Kurdish formations would then fall under the weight of the Turkish army,” he said.

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Ankara may also have to moderate its own military ambitions in the region. Turkish security sources said Ankara was re-evaluating a plan to set up 12 observation posts in northeastern Syria in the wake of the deal.

That change reflects the fact that Turkey, which had aimed to be the dominant force in the “safe zone” area, will now have to share that territory with Assad and Putin, who have both said that Turkish forces cannot remain in Syria in the long term.

“The most significant part of the Russian-Turkish agreement is the arrival of the Syrian border guard to the northeast, something both Damascus and Russia sought for a long time,” said Yury Barmin, a Middle East specialist at Moscow Policy Group.

“This also means de facto recognition of Assad by Erdogan.”

"Russia warns Syrian Kurdish YPG must pull back or face Turkish army," Andrew Osborne

The Putin-Erdogan powwow yesterday in Sochi puts a spotlight on a major U.S. foreign policy failure.

As Peskov said, “The United States was the closest ally of the Kurds during the last few years, and in the end the U.S. ditched the Kurds and effectively betrayed them.”

ISIS detention centers and U.S. military bases were abandoned. The plan to station exiting U.S. troops across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan has been vetoed by the Iraqi government. Now, Putin has blessed Erdogan's "safe zone."

No word yet if the Kurdish YPG plan to fight back. If they do it will be absent any backer other than the CIA. The Kurds have until Tuesday to clear out of the border.

German defense minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is calling for a massive NATO occupation force to patrol the Syrian border along with Turkey and Russia, which is an obvious non-starter.

Moon of Alabama points out the logistical difficulties the U.S. faces in supporting its remaining operations in Syria. (This assumes that U.S. statements it will leave only a couple hundred troops in country are truthful. More likely a couple thousand.)

The entire U.S. occupation of northeast Syria, a.k.a., Rojava, has been shrouded in mystery from the get-go. Reporting has been atrocious. Has the U.S. really abandoned its airbase outside Kobani? Does the U.S. really only have a couple hundred soldiers in Deir ez-Zor? We don't know.

Nonetheless, it is a significant victory for Syria. Its troops are once again patrolling the northern border and no Turkish military bases are being erected.