Trump and the Saudis pivoted back to "limited hangout" mode yesterday with Trump acknowledging that Jamal Khashoggi is dead and that officials of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia likely played a role in that death. Reports are that the Saudis will designate a patsy, Maj. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, the spokesmen for the war on Yemen and an ally of crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, as responsible for the crime. The story will be that MbS approved the rendition of Khashoggi but that al-Assiri overstepped. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin finally cancelled his trip to "Davos in the Desert."
It's all still a rope-a-dope, an attempt to wait it out. Jared Kushner is pleading with his father-in-law not to abandon the crown prince. Trump's position now is to withhold judgement until the Saudis release the results of their investigation into Khashoggi's disappearance, which is supposed to happen in the next couple of days.
The Trump administration is belatedly coming to the realization that the fires will not abate. Apparently there is a split within the U.S. intelligence community. One side sees evidence of MbS's direct involvement in and responsibility for Khashoggi's murder; the other, only that MbS ordered Khashoggi's rendition. In other words, a part of the U.S. deep state wants MbS gone, while the other wants him to remain.
The Khashoggi story is huge because so much is at stake. The Saudis -- who got away with 9/11, and goading W. into invading Iraq, not to mention creating ISIS and shattering Yemen -- finally have been caught red-handed in the act, and right before the launch of a major offensive against Iran.
It's going to be very difficult for Trump to knit things all together to wage war on Iran. Planning was obviously based on the inevitability of the GOP losing the House in November, leaving the few months of the lame duck for Trump to maneuver the country into a fait accompli. Because of Khashoggi that is looking less like a certainty at the moment.
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