Monday, October 22, 2018

Erdogan to Reveal All

The latest Khashoggi bombshell is Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan will reveal all Tuesday in his weekly address to parliament.

There is speculation that Erdogan's 48-hour countdown is a way for him to exact more concessions from the Saudis. I don't think so. Erdogan knows that at this point to be seen to trade on Khashoggi's murder would be to taint the remainder of his presidency.

The Germans are also keeping to the high road. Merkel's Economy Minister Peter Altmaier has announced that no armaments will be sold to Saudi Arabia as long as Khashoggi's assassination remains unresolved. Germany is seeking a joint EU position.

There are some choice passages from David Kirkpatrick's "Turkey’s President Vows to Detail Khashoggi Death ‘in Full Nakedness’":
The backlash over the Khashoggi killing “is the biggest event in the region since the Arab Spring,” said Michael Stephens, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank.
[snip] 
Now Mr. Erdogan, whose government is ranked among the biggest jailers of journalists, can enjoy a novel turn as a defender of the free press, by calling for justice for Mr. Khashoggi.
Erdogan no doubt sees himself meting out payback to the United States -- for the July 2016 Gülenist coup (Fethullah Gülen is protected by the United States); for tariffs on Turkish aluminum and steel; for the Kurdish proxy army that controls a large swath of northern Syria. So while it's crown prince Mohammed bin Salman caught in Erdogan's crosshairs, it is really the United States that is the target.

Take down the de facto head of al-Saud and you hamstring a significant part of Trump's foreign policy.

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