Haspel in Ankara to Threaten Erdogan

The place to start this morning is Craig Murray's blog post, "Khashoggi, Erdogan and the Truth." Murray cuts right to the chase. Turkey has already shared with the major intelligence agencies the audio and video proof of the Saudis butchering of Jamal Khashoggi. And CIA director Gina Haspel is in Ankara to threaten Erdogan in hopes of reining him in:

The Turkish account of the murder of Khashoggi given by President Erdogan is true, in every detail. Audio and video evidence exists and has been widely shared with world intelligence agencies, including the US, UK, Russia and Germany, and others which have a relationship with Turkey or are seen as influential. That is why, despite their desperate desire to do so, no Western country has been able to maintain support for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. I have not seen the video from inside the consulate, but have been shown stills which may be from a video. The most important thing to say is that they are not from a fixed position camera and appear at first sight consistent with the idea they are taken by a device brought in by the victim. I was only shown them briefly. I have not heard the audio recording.

[snip]

The same scepticism is true many times over when related to CIA Director Gina Haspel, who personally supervised torture in the CIA torture and extraordinary rendition programme. Haspel was sent urgently to Ankara by Donald Trump to attempt to deflect Erdogan from any direct accusation of Mohammed Bin Salman in his speech yesterday. MBS’ embrace of de facto alliance with Israel, in pursuit of his fanatic hatred of Shia Muslims, is the cornerstone of Trump’s Middle East policy.

Haspel’s brief was very simple. She took with her intercept intelligence that purportedly shows massive senior level corruption in the Istanbul Kanal project, and suggested that Erdogan may not find it a good idea if intelligence agencies started to make public all the information they hold.

Whether Erdogan held back in his speech yesterday as a result of Haspel’s intervention I do not know. Erdogan may be keeping cards up his sleeve for his own purpose, particularly relating to intercepts of phone and Skype calls from the killers direct to MBS’ office. I have an account of Haspel’s brief from a reliable source, but have not been updated on who she then met, or what the Turks said to her. It does seem very probable, from Trump’s shift in position this morning to indicate MBS may be involved, that Haspel was convinced the Turks have further strong evidence and may well use it.

Trump continues to bob and weave. Pompeo announced the first U.S. penalties to be meted out to Saudi Arabia for the Khashoggi assassination. Visas of 21 Saudis will be revoked. The names on the blacklist have not been published. So it is not even "name and shame."

Mohammed bin Salman opened his "Davos in the Desert" conference and received a standing ovation from the congregated capitalists. Parts of Khashoggi's carcass, reportedly discovered yesterday, have yet to surface, but the search continues.

Iran's president Rouhani has entered the fray by saying that al-Saud would not have butchered Khashoggi without a go-ahead from the U.S.

My sense is that while there will be more revelations in the coming days and weeks -- for one, unless Khashoggi's body has been chopped into fine particles and flushed down the toilet, parts of his corpse will eventually surface -- real action is going to have to come from legislatures because there is no evidence that government ministries are willing to upend the gravy train. The Socialist government of Spain has announced that arm sales to Saudi Arabia will continue, same with the UK and Canada. And you know that Trump is going to do the absolute minimum. The only reason Trump has been less than fulsome in his defense of Mohammed bin Salman is that there is a national election in the United States in two weeks. To the average American voter the Saudi royal family is about as bad as it gets.

There is an excellent chance that a blue wave will engulf Trump. All the fundamentals point to a Democratic capture of the House. This is a desired outcome because after Khashoggi I don't see how a Democratic House can maintain support for the U.S. partnership with KSA-UAE in the war on Yemen, nor aid in the initiating of a hot war with Iran after the "sainted" Obama struggled to craft the JCPOA as one of his legacy achievements.

The GOP will likely maintain control of the Senate. But the story will be Trump's failure to hold the House, particularly given how he is pulling out all the stops to win.