Kiev Ends Ceasefire

Let's get caught up with what is going on in Ukraine. Poroshenko, the president who was elected in a flawed poll in May, scrapped the ceasefire he declared on June 20. The Ukrainian military is now heavily shelling around Slovyansk. The end of the ceasefire comes after signs that Europe was parting company with the U.S. on its belligerent posture toward Russia. Last Friday in Brussels the EU refused to issue a new round of sanctions called for by the U.S. targeting banking, defense and energy sectors of the Russian economy. Absent new sanctions, European leaders issued an ultimatum that if by Monday a series of steps had not been met, foremost of which was the return of border posts to Ukrainian control, then Europe would go ahead with additional sanctions.

Monday came and went and the border posts were still under the control of the pro-Russian federalization forces; yet, despite this, Europe was still negotiating with Russia and no new sanctions were levied.

To force Europe's hand, to prevent talks from continuing, Poroshenko broke off the ceasefire and began what appears to be a full-scale assault on Slovyansk. Coup parliament leader Turchynov hints that the chocolate king might declare martial law soon.

This morning it is David Herszenhorn writes, in "Fighting Intensifies in Ukraine After Cease-Fire Is Ended," that :

The decision by Mr. Poroshenko to call off the cease-fire, while saying he still hoped to reach a truce in the coming days, reflected his conclusion that Russia was not genuinely working to bring the rebel forces under control even as President Vladimir V. Putin participated in conference calls and the Kremlin issued statements in support of a peace process.

Mr. Poroshenko’s decision also reflected a clear lack of confidence by the Ukrainian government that its European allies would follow through on threats of additional economic sanctions against Russia.

European leaders had issued a series of demands of Russia on Friday, and had set Monday as a deadline for tangible results, including that rebel forces relinquish control of three border crossings to the Ukrainian authorities. On Sunday and Monday, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France held lengthy conference calls.

But with no sign of progress — and with no indication from the Europeans that they were prepared to go forward with new sanctions — Mr. Poroshenko met with his national security team on Monday night and emerged resolute that the Ukrainian military go back on the offensive.

The United States and its NATO allies have accused Russia of sending tanks, artillery and other weapons to the rebels, and of allowing fighters from Russia to cross the border to join rebel militias. Some rebel leaders had demanded a complete withdrawal of government troops from eastern Ukraine as a precondition for formal peace negotiations.

Mr. Putin and other senior Russian leaders have repeatedly blamed the government in Kiev for the violence in the east. They said that the former Ukrainian president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, was ousted illegally in a coup, and insisted that the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east have been under threat.

In Russia’s first comment on the ending of the cease-fire, the foreign ministry on Tuesday said that Mr. Poroshenko’s decision had undermined the personal diplomatic efforts of the four heads of state, and suggested that Mr. Poroshenko had been pressured by his Western allies to end the cease-fire.

In a statement, the foreign ministry said, “This step by Kiev is very regrettable.”

In addition to asserting that the West had pressured Mr. Poroshenko to end the cease-fire, the ministry again described the rebel activity in eastern Ukraine as the actions of political protesters.

“We are urging yet again to stop using Ukraine as a loose coin in geopolitical games and to stop imposing a criminal line for the forceful suppression of protests,” the agency said.

Russia said peace negotiations should resume immediately and blamed the Ukrainian government for the failure of previous talks. “We are convinced that the efforts to put the situation back on the negotiation track should be continued, including urgent meeting of the contact group,” the ministry said. “We will assist this in every way.”

This page has argued all along that Europe holds the cards. Last Friday and again yesterday there were hopeful indications that the EU was beginning to play its superior hand by refusing calls for more sanctions and bargaining directly with Russia, even agreeing to discuss the association agreement that Ukraine signed (something it refused to do when Yanukovych was office).

What will happen now is that the bloodletting will continue. Refugees will flow across the border into Russia. But Russia will not directly intervene. Europe has to make a decision now. It either goes along with the big lie orchestrated by the U.S. and punishes Russia for Kiev crimes, cementing its status as a gutless lackey, or it stands by Russia and future economic growth.

I think Kiev is desperate. I think its game is about over. Hold strong Donbass! Find your intestinal fortitude Europe!