Ceasefire in Gaza, No Ceasefire in Novorossiya

"They're destroying our buildings." That is the line that filled my head as I awoke this morning. My wristwatch alarm had gone off at the usual time, 4 AM, but then I went back to sleep and dreamed of being out on the desert hardpack at Burning Man with Sergey Brin.

"They're destroying our buildings" refers to the chief strategy of U.S. allies Israel and Ukraine. An Egyptian-brokered ceasefire in Gaza was announced yesterday. Despite vows from both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas that they would never again accept a return to the status quo ante, that is exactly what happened. Jodi Rudoren reports in "Cease-Fire Extended, but Not on Hamas’s Terms" that

A statement from Egypt’s Foreign Ministry describing the deal included only vague language about “the aspirations of the Palestinian people” and the need to create “an independent Palestinian state to achieve peace and security in the region.” Hamas’s call for a seaport and airport in Gaza, and Israel’s call for demilitarization of the coastal territory — along with an exchange of Israeli soldiers’ remains for Palestinians in Israeli prisons — were put off for discussion within a month if the truce holds.

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Though Egypt, Israel and the United States have all said a cease-fire should strengthen Mr. Abbas and give him the leading role in rebuilding Gaza, he was not mentioned in the Egyptian statement. The statement also said nothing about Gaza’s southern Rafah crossing with Egypt, whose frequent closings since President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power in Egypt have been a prime Palestinian complaint.

The agreement restores the six-nautical-mile fishing zone off Gaza’s coast that Israel agreed to in 2012 but later cut back. It also says that Israeli-controlled border crossings will be opened to allow the “quick entry” of humanitarian aid and materials to reconstruct Gaza, where more than 11,000 homes and scores of schools and mosques have been reduced to rubble. A senior Israeli official said the entry of cement and concrete would be monitored to ensure it was used for civilian purposes, because “we’re not interested in allowing Hamas to rebuild its military machine.”

It is hard to know why exactly the Palestinian side caved in so badly. Maybe there is a secret agreement on the release of Hamas prisoners. After all is said and done the place to look is the obvious. The longer the Israeli bombardment lasted the more Gaza became an uninhabitable landscape of rubble:

The agreement followed a week of renewed fighting after the collapse of an earlier cease-fire. Israel killed several top Hamas military commanders and felled three high-rise buildings in audacious airstrikes, while more than 100 rockets a day pounded its battered south. 

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“The human catastrophe is just very immense, it’s getting worse and worse every day, and I think that’s one of the reasons Hamas took into consideration in accepting the cease-fire,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Al-Azhar University in Gaza City. “The mood is very critical of Israel, but they are also asking questions of Hamas: Why did we have to go through all this? Why is there no cease-fire? Why did we provoke Israel into this war? More and more questions are in the minds of the Palestinians, especially in this last week.”

There was an excellent story at the beginning of the month by Rudoren and Fares Akram, "Conflict Leaves Industry in Ashes and Gaza Reeling From Economic Toll," that highlighted the Israeli strategy of targeting Palestinian industry in Gaza for destruction. All of this -- targeting civilian homes and industry -- is a war crime. And it worked to bring about the best Netanyahu could expect to achieve, a ceasefire with a vague promise to allow construction material through the blockade to rebuild what will be destroyed again at a later date.

The ballyhooed meeting yesterday in Minsk between Putin and Poroshenko turned out to be, at first blush at least, little to do with securing a ceasefire in the Donbass and more about the reasons Russia has for opposing Ukraine's newly-signed association agreement with the European Union. Niqnaq has a illuminating post today, "minsk in a nutshell," that lays out Putin's arguments, the foremost of which is that duty-free products from Europe will flood Ukraine where they be misleading re-labeled Ukrainian goods and exported to Russia:

As soon as Ukraine introduces zero import duty on goods from Euia, a step envisaged right after the ratification of the agreement that would apply to 98% of all the goods, there will obviously be a sharp increase in the supply of Euian goods to the Ukrainian market. We understand our Euian partners: they have already developed the Ukrainian market rather well, and would like to get hold of whatever is left and squeeze out everyone else. Besides, less competitive Ukrainian produce will also be squeezed out from its own market. Where to? Primarily to Russia and the other Customs Union states, but primarily to us. We should not rule out the risk of illegal re-export to the Customs Union market of goods from Euia under the guise of Ukrainian produce, either.

I was wrong. I thought Putin was going to make a deal with Poroshenko at Minsk. But now it appears that while Putin was in Minsk Moscow has committed itself even more to Novorossiya by opening up new fronts. According to Andrew Higgins and Michael Gordon in "Putin Talks to Ukrainian Leader as Videos Show Captured Russian Soldiers":

The release of the videos [of junta-captured Russian soldiers] and the high-level talks came a day after Ukraine accused Russia of sending an armored column across the border toward the coastal city of Mariupol. That, along with other Russian moves, prompted Geoffrey R. Pyatt, the United States ambassador to Ukraine, to express alarm on Twitter. “The new columns of Russian tanks and armor crossing into Ukraine indicates a Russian-directed counteroffensive may be underway. #escalation,” he wrote. 

Western officials said the purpose of the push toward Mariupol, which is far from the main conflict zone, was to open a new front that would divert Ukrainian forces from Donetsk and Luhansk, and possibly to seize an outlet to the sea in the event that Russia tries to establish a permanent separatist enclave in eastern Ukraine. 

Two other Russian incursions, the officials said, were aimed at breaking the siege of Luhansk by Ukrainian forces and opening a supply corridor to Donetsk. 

To support the counteroffensive, Russia has deployed a sizable amount of artillery within range of Ukrainian forces near Luhansk. The Ukrainian forces were out of range of artillery based on Russian territory, so Moscow moved the units into Ukraine. 

“Russian military units with self-propelled artillery have entered eastern Ukraine and have established an operational presence in the Krasnodon area, an area controlled by Russian separatists,” a senior Obama administration official said. 

The videos released by Ukraine could make it more difficult for the Kremlin to stick to its approach of denying that it has any hand in the fighting, though a state-run Russian news agency cited an unnamed Defense Ministry official as saying the soldiers had crossed into Ukraine by accident.

Colonel Cassad reports the hot phase of fighting will last through Ukrainian parliamentary elections in October. No politician can afford to be seen suing for peace until then. This means the humanitarian crisis in Novorossiya will deepen since all the junta military has proven it can do is shell civilian structures using heavy artillery. Power and water has been out for weeks in Luhansk. Unless the counteroffensive of the Novorossiyan self-defense forces is a smashing success and the junta is routed thoroughly we can expect more destroyed homes and high rises and civilian slaughter.

Hamas Right to Reject Egyptian Ceasefire Proposal

I don't fault Hamas for its reluctance to embrace the Egyptian ceasefire proposal for Gaza, which as far as I can tell does nothing other than maintain the status quo, not even the status quo ante. 

My first reaction when I saw the headline, "Israel’s Security Cabinet Accepts Egyptian Cease-Fire Proposal," reported by Jodi Rudoren from Jerusalem, was "Here we go again." Nothing has been resolved. The Israelis "mowed the grass," killed a lot of Palestinians, terrorized Gaza, blew up a lot of stuff. Hamas, if anything, got the better of the exchange, if you ask me, because it proved that it can fire inaccurate, not-very-lethal missiles at will, forcing, for instance, Tel Aviv to suspend summer festivals. You might say that this is nothing compared to the nearly two hundred Gazan fatalities and 1,400 wounded. And while you would be right in the main, I would argue that for Israelis -- who, like their American cousins, seemed to be defined primarily by an all-encompassing infantilization, a belief that they are entitled to use any amount of force with an implicit guarantee of complete safety -- to give up their civilized summer routines and be forced to live according to the wail of air-raid sirens, this might be enough to spur a reappraisal of the long-term viability of their warfare state.

The ceasefire deal brokered by the Sisi regime calls for a cessation of hostilities followed by a meeting of the parties in Cairo within 48 hours to begin negotiations on demilitarizing Gaza -- getting rid of all the missiles and rockets and shutting down the tunnels. The Hamas position is that all the Palestinian prisoners released in the Gilad Shalit exchange and then rearrested during the phony dragnet for the three missing yeshiva students (phony because the Netanyahu government already knew the youth were dead) should be freed and the Gaza border crossings should be opened. On this last point, the opening of the border crossings, the Egyptian proposal pussyfoots, saying, the opening should be “facilitated once the security situation becomes stable on the ground.”

Rudoren reports that Hamas' unwillingness to accept the ceasefire is being happily interpreted by Israelis as a green light to commit more war crimes:

“If Hamas looks at the cards it has been dealt — and they are very weak cards indeed — resuming military operations against Israel is not a good hand to play,” Michael B. Oren, Israel’s former ambassador to the United States, told reporters on Tuesday in a conference call organized by The Israel Project, an advocacy group. 

“Now that Israel has accepted the cease-fire and has offered to go into further negotiations,” Mr. Oren said, “if Hamas reopens fire, Israel’s justification for responding in a very robust way is greatly reinforced.” 

The diplomatic developments followed a relatively quiet night, in which the Israeli military bombed 25 sites in Gaza, killing five people in the southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis, bringing the total number of Palestinian deaths since the operation began to 185, according to the Gaza Health Ministry; about 1,400 others have been wounded. 

Ashraf al-Qedra, the Health Ministry spokesman, and local journalists said that Ismail and Mohammed Najjar, relatives in their 40s who worked as guards on agricultural land in a former Israeli settlement in Khan Younis, were killed early Tuesday. In Rafah, drone strikes killed Atwa al-Amour, a 63-year-old farmer, and Bushra Zourob, 53, a woman who was near the target, a man on a motorbike, who was wounded.

An Israeli military spokeswoman said Tuesday morning that Israel had hit 1,609 targets in Gaza during the eight-day operation, and counted 1,090 rockets fired into Israel, 193 of which had been intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system. 

That did not include the assault that began after Israel’s embrace of the cease-fire proposal: more than 30 rockets were fired between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m., the military said, mainly aimed at southern areas but also as far north as Haifa and Rehovot.

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Now Rudoren is reporting, "Israel Resumes Attacks After Militants Spurn Cease-Fire Plan,"
that Israel has resumed its turkey shoot in Gaza. The ceasefire is off.

Netanyahu has been successful so far in avoiding a ground invasion, which, as I see it, will be disastrous for Israel/U.S. interests, accomplishing nothing strategically while at the same time spotlighting the bankruptcy and moral degeneracy of the warfare state. The only thing that can be said with certainty is that Netanyahu is mindful of this. But the longer the conflict goes, the harder it will be for him to resist.

Kiev Ends Ceasefire

Let's get caught up with what is going on in Ukraine. Poroshenko, the president who was elected in a flawed poll in May, scrapped the ceasefire he declared on June 20. The Ukrainian military is now heavily shelling around Slovyansk. The end of the ceasefire comes after signs that Europe was parting company with the U.S. on its belligerent posture toward Russia. Last Friday in Brussels the EU refused to issue a new round of sanctions called for by the U.S. targeting banking, defense and energy sectors of the Russian economy. Absent new sanctions, European leaders issued an ultimatum that if by Monday a series of steps had not been met, foremost of which was the return of border posts to Ukrainian control, then Europe would go ahead with additional sanctions.

Monday came and went and the border posts were still under the control of the pro-Russian federalization forces; yet, despite this, Europe was still negotiating with Russia and no new sanctions were levied.

To force Europe's hand, to prevent talks from continuing, Poroshenko broke off the ceasefire and began what appears to be a full-scale assault on Slovyansk. Coup parliament leader Turchynov hints that the chocolate king might declare martial law soon.

This morning it is David Herszenhorn writes, in "Fighting Intensifies in Ukraine After Cease-Fire Is Ended," that :

The decision by Mr. Poroshenko to call off the cease-fire, while saying he still hoped to reach a truce in the coming days, reflected his conclusion that Russia was not genuinely working to bring the rebel forces under control even as President Vladimir V. Putin participated in conference calls and the Kremlin issued statements in support of a peace process.

Mr. Poroshenko’s decision also reflected a clear lack of confidence by the Ukrainian government that its European allies would follow through on threats of additional economic sanctions against Russia.

European leaders had issued a series of demands of Russia on Friday, and had set Monday as a deadline for tangible results, including that rebel forces relinquish control of three border crossings to the Ukrainian authorities. On Sunday and Monday, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France held lengthy conference calls.

But with no sign of progress — and with no indication from the Europeans that they were prepared to go forward with new sanctions — Mr. Poroshenko met with his national security team on Monday night and emerged resolute that the Ukrainian military go back on the offensive.

The United States and its NATO allies have accused Russia of sending tanks, artillery and other weapons to the rebels, and of allowing fighters from Russia to cross the border to join rebel militias. Some rebel leaders had demanded a complete withdrawal of government troops from eastern Ukraine as a precondition for formal peace negotiations.

Mr. Putin and other senior Russian leaders have repeatedly blamed the government in Kiev for the violence in the east. They said that the former Ukrainian president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, was ousted illegally in a coup, and insisted that the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east have been under threat.

In Russia’s first comment on the ending of the cease-fire, the foreign ministry on Tuesday said that Mr. Poroshenko’s decision had undermined the personal diplomatic efforts of the four heads of state, and suggested that Mr. Poroshenko had been pressured by his Western allies to end the cease-fire.

In a statement, the foreign ministry said, “This step by Kiev is very regrettable.”

In addition to asserting that the West had pressured Mr. Poroshenko to end the cease-fire, the ministry again described the rebel activity in eastern Ukraine as the actions of political protesters.

“We are urging yet again to stop using Ukraine as a loose coin in geopolitical games and to stop imposing a criminal line for the forceful suppression of protests,” the agency said.

Russia said peace negotiations should resume immediately and blamed the Ukrainian government for the failure of previous talks. “We are convinced that the efforts to put the situation back on the negotiation track should be continued, including urgent meeting of the contact group,” the ministry said. “We will assist this in every way.”

This page has argued all along that Europe holds the cards. Last Friday and again yesterday there were hopeful indications that the EU was beginning to play its superior hand by refusing calls for more sanctions and bargaining directly with Russia, even agreeing to discuss the association agreement that Ukraine signed (something it refused to do when Yanukovych was office).

What will happen now is that the bloodletting will continue. Refugees will flow across the border into Russia. But Russia will not directly intervene. Europe has to make a decision now. It either goes along with the big lie orchestrated by the U.S. and punishes Russia for Kiev crimes, cementing its status as a gutless lackey, or it stands by Russia and future economic growth.

I think Kiev is desperate. I think its game is about over. Hold strong Donbass! Find your intestinal fortitude Europe!