Islamic State, the Secret Weapon in Obama's Asia Pivot

Secretary of State John Kerry was in Beijing yesterday meeting with Chinese officials. Many topics were discussed, foremost of which from the U.S. perspective was the promulgation of some sort of national code of conduct in maritime disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea. The august Jane Perlez, spouse of Ray Bonner, has the story, "Kerry Presses China to Abide by Maritime Laws to Ease Tensions":

BEIJING — In a closed-door session at a high-level gathering of Chinese and American officials here on Wednesday, Secretary of State John Kerry urged China to follow maritime law in nearby seas to reduce regional tensions, a senior American official said. 

Mr. Kerry called on China to support the creation of a legally binding code of conduct that other Asian nations are considering to enforce rules of navigation and inhibit unilateral actions in the South China and East China Seas, said the official, who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity under standard protocol. 

The secretary met with Yang Jiechi, a state councilor who deals with foreign policy, on the first day of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, an annual gathering of senior officials from both countries where differences on issues including national security, the economy, climate change and human rights are aired.

“The secretary emphasized this is not a situation in which countries should or can be permitted simply to act unilaterally to advance their territorial claims or interests,” said the official, alluding to China’s dispatch of a huge oil rig to disputed waters off the coast of Vietnam in May and the virtual takeover in 2012 of a reef, the Scarborough Shoal, that is claimed by the Philippines.

Mr. Kerry also said efforts to create a “new status quo” at the expense of regional harmony were “unacceptable,” the official said. 

Maneuvers by China to assert claims over islands and waters in the South China Sea, and to slow the efforts of a regional group, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, to complete a code of conduct that would govern maritime rules have become a major point of friction between Washington and Beijing. The South China Sea is one of the world’s busiest trading routes.

The best thing I've read that allows one to get a handle on what Obama's "pivot to Asia" is all about is a story by Ed Wong and Jonathan Ansfield from last month, "To Bolster Its Claims, China Plants Islands in Disputed Waters." A lot is made of the commercial aspects of the Asia pivot, that the U.S. is reasserting it guardianship of the China Sea to reassure its allies that they won't be blocked by the Chinese behemoth from reaping any bonanza to be had from oil and natural gas reserves in the region's waters. But what is really going on is a U.S. effort to keep the Chinese Dragon penned within the first island chain. If the Chinese are successful at asserting a strategic presence in the Spratlys or the Paracels, this can be used to project power to the second island chain. This would be a game-changer since the second island chain essentially encompasses the principal islands of Japan, something that the United States will not abide.

And when the United States needs to solve a geopolitical problem these days, who does it turn to? Yes, you guessed it -- Islamic State, formerly the group known as ISIS. It was easy to miss Keith Bradsher's story yesterday, "Recent Tanker Hijackings Add to Problems in the South China Sea," about a spate of pirate activity off the coast of Malaysia reminiscent of what has been well publicized in the waters of Somalia:

The hijackings raise geopolitical issues. Seven have taken place close to Malaysia and one close to the Anambas Islands of Indonesia. But two of the hijackings close to Malaysia occurred in waters near James Shoal, a disputed, submerged reef near the north coast of Malaysian Borneo. 

Malaysia has had commercial activities there for many years, and it is a center of the country’s extensive offshore oil and gas industry. Oil and gas revenues cover nearly half of the Malaysian government’s budget. 

But China has been increasingly assertive over the past several years in claiming that James Shoal lies inside its so-called nine-dash line, a huge expanse of the South China Sea that Beijing has been claiming with increasing boldness, particularly this year. A small flotilla of Chinese naval vessels went to James Shoal in January, and Chinese officers held an oath-swearing ceremony there to pledge that they would defend China’s sovereignty. 

Malaysia glossed over the matter, saying that the Chinese vessels had stayed in international waters during their activities. Malaysia has tried to maintain a nearly neutral stance toward China within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, but it could find the balancing act more difficult next year, when it assumes the rotating chairmanship of the association. 

The hijackings also come at a time of considerable nervousness about jihadist recruiting efforts in Malaysia, which is heavily Sunni Muslim. The Malaysian authorities have detained more than a dozen people in the past month, reportedly including a Malaysian naval officer, in an investigation into recruiting and other support activities on behalf of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the militant group that has seized control of a large part of northwestern Iraq.

The International Maritime Bureau, which is part of the International Chamber of Commerce and works closely with the United Nations on shipping issues, has been quietly tracking the hijacking problem and plans to issue a detailed report next week calling for further international attention to the problem, Mr. Choong said. The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency has said that it is trying to solve the crimes and increase security at sea. 

Cmdr. William J. Marks, a spokesman for the United States Navy’s Seventh Fleet, said the fleet had not received a request for antipiracy help in more than two years, but generally worked closely with countries in the region, including conducting a joint exercise last year with Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. 

In a typical year, one tanker is hijacked in the South China Sea or the adjacent Strait of Malacca, or none at all. Freighters and pleasure boats are sometimes stopped and their crews and passengers robbed and, on rare occasions, kidnapped. From $1 million to $2 million worth of fuel has been stolen from each of six tankers that have lost part or all of their cargos in the South China Sea since mid-April. 

Pirates briefly seized two other tankers but did not try to steal their cargos after discovering that they were carrying chemicals that were not readily salable. One of the tankers was carrying methanol, used in making paints and plastics, and the other was carrying bitumen, a thick fuel used for firing boilers.

Malaysia goes from one-to-no incidents of piracy to eight at the same time that Islamic State is busy recruiting. This is how it works nowadays. Islamic State is the point of the spear for the United States not only in Syria and Iraq but also potentially the South China Sea. It is something to watch.