The U.S. and Kiev Have Lost

Though it might not look it, the American project in Kiev is in serious trouble. The victories in Slovyansk and Kamatorsk ended up costing far more than they were worth because they exposed the brutality of the junta -- so much so that reliable coup scribe David Herszenhorn poetically assessed that "Control came at the expense of untold destruction" -- and the spottiness of the rationale of the Anti-Terrorist Operation -- purported Russian supply and control of the rebels.

That is why NATO general secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen was in D.C. yesterday, to blow life back into the corpse that Russia is to blame for everything going wrong in Ukraine. No proof is supplied. In fact, U.S. reporters on the ground regularly write about the anger of Donetsk People's Republic fighters because Russia is not doing anything to help them. The only proof Rasmussen provided was the imploring question, "Who else could supply anti-aircraft batteries?" Well, for one, I would think Ukraine herself. Why is it so hard to think that the freedom fighters of Novorossiya could liberate some heavy weapons from the feckless junta military?

Sabrina Tavernise and David Herszenhorn are reporting from Donetsk, "With Talks Uncertain, Ukrainian Rebels Cling to Hope in Strongholds," that

In Donetsk, at least for now, the rebels were confident enough to saunter around the city as if they owned it. With a population of one million, the city is outwardly affluent, with an Infiniti car dealership, a fancy sports stadium and several luxury hotels. Any bombing would seem likely to inflict severe civilian casualties as well as property damage, and the rebels may be counting on the government trying to avoid that.

Poroshenko made another phony overture for negotiations, insisting that the rebels must first lay their weapons down and turn themselves in. The chocolate king said he would talk " 'with the authentic owners' of this part of Ukraine, such as steelmakers and miners."

At this point the Obama administration must know that the game is up. Any assault from the air on a metropolis with all the trappings of Western prosperity will be impossible to justify. The optics will be irrefutable. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki will have to be furloughed due to nervous exhaustion brought on by her "spectacular feats" of propaganda.

The city seemed as if it was waiting for something. Streets were empty. Many stores were closed. And rebels were building barricades on some of the smaller outer roads. A giant pile of gravel had been dumped across one access road in the Petrovsky neighborhood in the southwest of the city, and workers were moving large concrete barricades into place nearby. 

The quiet was broken around 1 p.m., when a fighter jet fired at an abandoned coal mine that had served as a makeshift base for some of the rebels. Local news agencies quoted Ukrainian forces as saying that fighter jets had not been flying Tuesday. But the sound was clear, prompting dozens of pedestrians to look skyward. No one was hurt, but residents were shaken. 

“I never thought I’d see such a thing in Donetsk,” said Alexander, 17, who was standing with his mother at a bus stop near the explosion. He said that his bus, No. 42, arrived with several broken windows just minutes later, and that people at the bus stop were panicking, with “tears and hysterics.” 

He had been trying to persuade his parents to let him join the rebels, he said, and now he would redouble his efforts. 

“If everyone here sits around with their hands crossed, who will protect our land?” he said.

Proof that Obama has bungled again is Germany. Germany has always been the linchpin in Ukraine. And Germany has now been lost by the administration. Merkel is gone. When Obama called the German chancellor last Thursday to jawbone her on ratcheting up another round of sanctions on Russia apparently he was clueless that a CIA spy who worked at the BND, the German federal intelligence service, had been arrested. Mark Mazzetti and Mark Landler have the story, "Spying Case Left Obama in Dark, U.S. Officials Say":

When President Obama placed a call to Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany last Thursday, he had a busy agenda: to consult with a close ally and to mobilize wavering Europeans to put more pressure on Russia to end its covert incursions in Ukraine.

What Mr. Obama did not know was that a day earlier, a young German intelligence operative had been arrested and had admitted that he had been passing secrets to the Central Intelligence Agency.

While Ms. Merkel chose not to raise the issue during the call, the fact that the president was kept in the dark about the blown spying operation at a particularly delicate moment in American relations with Germany has led frustrated White House officials to question who in the C.I.A.’s chain of command was aware of the case — and why that information did not make it to the Oval Office before the call.

I think it is clear that at this point Germany is moving briskly to reorient itself toward the BRICS. Merkel's trip to China on a day when the Chinese commemorated the 77th anniversary of the start of the Sino-Japanese War is a strong tell. No, I don't think there is any question of the U.S.-German estrangement:

Last week’s disclosure came at a delicate moment: Mr. Obama needs Ms. Merkel’s support to impose additional sanctions against Russia for its role in the Ukraine crisis. Germany, with extensive energy ties to Russia, has many reasons to resist, though Ms. Merkel has signaled she is running out of patience with President Vladimir V. Putin. 

The American authorities are also pursuing heavy financial penalties from German banks, including Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, for dealing with Iran and other countries that are blacklisted by the United States. The German government owns 17 percent of Commerzbank, raising the prospect of further tensions. 

The prospect of new strains between the United States and Germany drew an expression of concern from the secretary general of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who met with Mr. Obama at the White House on Tuesday. 

“I encourage them to sort this out as quickly as possible,” Mr. Rasmussen said in an interview after his meeting, adding, “All NATO allies profit from an intensive exchange of information and intelligence, so that’s also part of the whole equation.”

The U.S. and Kiev have lost. Will Donetsk and Luhansk be made to needlessly suffer? The answer at this point is yes.