U.S./French Attack on Syria Likely in the Works

In the wake of Israel's bombing of a Syrian military airfield in Homs Province, which apparently killed a number of Iranians, we need to keep focused on the possibility of a double tap. The second strike would be delivered by France and/or the United States.

Macron and Trump conferred by phone prior to today's UNSC special meeting on the alleged chlorine attack in Douma. They will be united in opposition to whatever Russian position is put forward.

Is Trump foolish enough to have another go at a Tomahawk attack as he did last year in response to Khan Sheikhoun? How about Macron? He's facing an unwinnable situation with a calendar chock full of rolling strike dates. France will be largely paralyzed in April. What better way to look tough to the rail unions than bombing the Syrian Arab Army?

Trump will be happy to have Emmanuel Macron as a wing man. Say what you will about Trump, but he is generally a quick study. He knows by know that the Saudis and Israelis are running U.S. policy on Syria. 

Jaysh al-Islam is a Salafi terror group guided by Saudi Arabia. It staged the chlorine attack in Douma prior to agreeing to an evacuation. The Saudis have Trump in a box. They stage a chemical weapon attack and they know Trump has to respond.

The problem here is that Russia is going to respond sooner or later, and that response will be designed to bring us to the brink of nuclear confrontation.

Read the Saker's informative post, "Russia Is Ready for War -- Mood on Prime-Time TV Is Grim":

I just spend about 2 hour listening to a TV debate of Russian experts about what to do about the USA. Here are a few interesting interesting points.

1) They all agreed that the AngloZionist (of course, they used the words “USA” or “Western countries”) was only going to further escalate and that the only way to stop this is to deliberately bring the world right up to the point were a full-scale US-Russian war was imminent or even locally started. They said that it was fundamentally wrong for Russia to reply with just words against Western actions.

2) Interestingly, there also was a consensus that even a full-scale US attack on Syria would be too late to change the situation on the ground, that it was way too late for that.

3) Another interesting conclusion was that the only real question for Russia is whether Russia would be better off delaying this maximal crisis or accelerating the events and making everything happen sooner. There was no consensus on that.

4) Next, there was an consensus view that pleading, reasoning, asking for fairness or justice, or even for common sense, was futile. The Russian view is simple: the West is ruled by a gang of thugs supported by an infinitely lying and hypocritical media while the general public in the West has been hopelessly zombified. The authority of the so-called “western values” (democracy, rule of law, human rights, etc.) in Russia is now roadkill.

5) There was also a broad consensus that the US elites are not taking Russia seriously and that the current Russian diplomatic efforts are futile (especially towards the UK). The only way to change that would be with very harsh measures, including diplomatic and military ones. Everybody agreed that talking with Boris Johnson would be not only a total waste of time, but a huge mistake.

6) To my amazement, the notion that Russia might have to sink a few USN ships or use Kalibers on US forces in the Middle-East was viewed as a real, maybe inevitable, option. Really – nobody objected.

Reach your own conclusions. I will just say that none of the “experts” was representing, or working for, the Russian government. Government experts not only have better info, they also know that the lives of millions of people depend on their decisions, which is not the case for the so-called “experts”. Still, the words of these experts do reflect, I think, a growing popular consensus.

Germany's Reaction to NAF's Victory in Debaltseve Bad Sign for Greece

Debaltseve has fallen to the Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF). What is interesting about David Herszenhorn's story, "Ukraine Forces Withdraw From Debaltseve, a Strategic Town," is he doesn't let on to where the Ukrainian Army is planning to retreat. 

Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian national security and defense council, confirmed the retreat at a briefing in Kiev, the capital, on Wednesday afternoon, and said that the pullout was nearly completed. 

“Today, the armed forces of Ukraine are conducting the organized, planned retreat of units of forces of the antiterrorist operation from the city of Debaltseve,” Mr. Lysenko said. “At the moment, almost 80 percent of the Ukrainian units have retreated from this sector, and this operation is to be completed soon.”

Herszenhorn doesn't mention in his story that Debaltseve is encircled by the NAF. There is nowhere for the Ukrainian Army to flee. But in a story yesterday by Andrew Kramer, "Despite Ukraine Truce, a Battle That Continues," it is clear Poroshenko's troops are surrounded and in deep trouble:

As many as 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers are holed up in the city, a rail hub connecting the capitals of the two rebel regions, Donetsk and Luhansk. Rebels have reportedly sent text messages to phones in the town, telling the soldiers that they have been abandoned and should surrender.

The Ukrainian government maintains that the town was not surrounded before the cease-fire took effect, and that European monitors of the truce should insist that the separatist forces halt their offensive and open a corridor to evacuate the wounded.

The main rebel group, the Donetsk People’s Republic, has said it will not observe the agreement in Debaltseve, saying that it was encircled before the cease-fire began and that it is therefore now an internal region in its enclave, not a section of the front.

The only resupply road into Debaltseve is mined, in range of rebel artillery and at times held by pro-Russian infantry. On Friday, eight Ukrainian soldiers reportedly escaped on foot through the fields, and on Sunday, a dozen or so made it out in a truck [one of the soldiers on the truck said it was dumb luck that they made it out alive]. 

On Tuesday, however, Ukrainian rocket-launching trucks and tanks were barreling down the resupply road toward the fighting, though the cease-fire required both sides to withdraw heavy weaponry starting at midnight Monday.

The Saker explains in a post yesterday, "Yet another monumental failure for the junta," that worse is yet to come for Kiev:

All my sources confirm that Debaltsevo is mostly in Novorussian hands and that the junta forces are in full retreat to the south of the pocket. All the top Novorussian brass was on hand today, including Kononov, Motorola, Givi, Mozgovoi and Zakharchenko as were many tens of Ukrainian prisoners. It appears that the junta forces were unable to provide the kind of resistance they showed in Peski, and that make sense because in Peski they were not surrounded and they had the fire support of Ukrainian forces just north and west of them. This time the cauldron is too deep and the "lid" too strong.

You can see that the cauldron "lid" has now closed on Debaltsevo from the north and that the junta forces are either surrendering of fleeing south where there is quite literally nothing for them to do then to wait until they run out of food and ammo. Bottom line: it's over for the Ukie forces in the Debaltsevo cauldron.

Amazingly, the freaks in Kiev as still insisting that there is no cauldron but only a "bridgehead". The good news is that apparently nobody buys that nonsense any more and the mothers and wifes of the men caught in the cauldron are trying everything they can to force the Ukie high command to accept the Novorussian offer of an evacuation corridor. The try to protest in front of the General Staff building in Kiev, then the blocked traffic. In a particularly poignant moment one of these women put a megaphone next to a cellphone to amplify the voice of her son/husband calling from the cauldron and announcing that they had for about 3 hours of supplies left.

All this is truly catastrophic news for the junta in Kiev. First, their policy of denying the issue made it impossible for their forces to get out while it was still possible. According to Russian military experts, about half of all the (comparatively) combat capable units of the Ukrainian military have been surrounded in this cauldron and that means that 50% of the Ukrainian army is now gone. Second, while Poroshenko and the junta freaks tried as hard as they could to completely deny the very existence of the cauldron, thanks to the Internet and the Russian TV channels most folks in junta-controlled Ukraine know that they are being lied to. That, in turns, means that the regime is loosing the very little credibility it might have had with the general public. Last and not least, now there will be a lot of very ugly recriminations from all sides of the political spectrum about who is guilty for that latest disaster. I would not be surprised one bit if the Ukrainian death-squads (aka Azov battalion & Co.) decided to storm Kiev for two reasons: a) to take out their rage on the regime and b) because it is safer to storm Kiev than Donetsk. Poroshenko better watch his back now. By the way, rumor (unconfirmed!) has it that he already evacuated his family to Germany.

Novorussian intel is reporting that the junta is trying to assemble three battalion tactical groups and numerous MLRS north of the cauldron to try to rescue the surrounded forces, but this will be too little too late. The Novorussians are used to Ukie artillery and they don't fear their armor or, even less so, infantry. Besides, I bet you that now that they are inside Debaltsevo, the Novorussians will deeply dig in. When is the last time that the junta forces succeeded in an urban assault operation? Exactly.

Bottom line: yet another brilliant victory for the Novorussian forces and yet another humiliating defeat for the junta in Kiev.

Judging from the reaction to Debaltseve by various participants at Minsk last week, The Saker is on the money: This is another titanic blunder by the junta which bodes ill not just for Kiev but for the West and Russia as well.

First, Herszenhorn reports Putin's reaction as follows:

[Poroshenko's] comments [asserting bizarrely that Ukrainian troops had accomplished their mission in Debaltseve], however, came after the separatists boasted of controlling the town, and after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia suggested on Tuesday in Hungary that Ukraine should accept its defeat at Debaltseve by separatist forces he described as “underdogs.”

“Life is life; it just goes on,” Mr. Putin said. “No need to dwell on it.”

Germany's reaction is troubling: more sanctions, more blame for Russia. According to Herszenhorn:

Ms. Merkel’s office condemned the separatist offensive, calling it a clear violation of a cease-fire. 

At a regular government news conference, Steffen Seibert, Chancellor Merkel’s spokesman, said Europe was prepared to support a new round of sanctions against Russia if the situation in Ukraine continued to deteriorate. 

“There has been a massive violation of the cease-fire which took effect on Sunday,” Mr. Seibert said, according to Reuters. He said it was too early to say whether the Minsk peace deal had collapsed. 

“The hopes linked to the Minsk agreement have been seriously damaged,” he said. “We must push for the implementation of the package of measures.” 

“We see the U.N. resolution as an impulse in this direction, and in the coming days, we will work with the possibilities that we have,” he said.

To blame the NAF solely for a violation of the Minsk 2.0 ceasefire is not credible. Even the extremely biased Gray Lady reports that the Ukrainian Army violated the ceasefire. All indications are that the West is going to continue to back the junta. Hopefully, The Saker is right and Kiev will collapse from within either due to a new Maidan uprising or another Right Sector putsch. Because of the lifeline the West keeps extending to Poroshenko, change will have to come from within, and that appears to me to be a longshot.

Germany's insane behavior -- doing the same thing (sanctions) and expecting a different result (surrender of the NAF) -- does not bode well for the outcome of loan negotiations between Greece and the troika. Germany's institutional obtuseness has to be factored in.

On the other hand, one might argue that what determines German behavior is what Washington wants. Germany did not want a civil war in Ukraine, but Merkel has gone along with the disastrous U.S.-backed ATO in the Donbass. Washington supports some flexibility for Greece (see today's NYT unsigned editorial, "Give Greece Room to Maneuver"); Obama has voiced support, albeit meekly, for the Syriza-led government being allowed to implement some of its pro-growth policies. The idea here, as expressed in an "Upshot" today by Neil Irwin, "A Possible Day of Reckoning, Again, for Greece and Europe," is that eventually Germany will capitulate in favor of European unity:

If Greece ends up dropping out of the euro currency zone entirely, with unpredictable ripple effects across the Continent and the world financial system, the events of the last few days will look like a turning point that led to that moment. As of Tuesday, to be clear, markets were predicting nothing of the sort. European stock markets were down only slightly, and the value of the euro was actually up a bit. In effect, markets have seen this show before: the sturm und drang of threats and counterthreats that end in a last-minute deal.

The hedge fund manager Mark Dow offered on Twitter a way to think about the tense negotiations: “EZ bears underestimate the short-term resolve of EZ policy makers. EZ bulls overestimate the long-term viability of the exchange rate system.” 

Here’s what Mr. Dow is saying. We have seen again and again that this generation of European leaders, who built their careers on the altar of European unity, will eventually do what it takes to prevent the common currency from ripping apart. If this recent history is a guide, then the drama of the last few days is merely the theatrics required to get these finance ministers to arrive at a deal. 

On the other hand, Mr. Dow also points out, Europe really does have a big and plausibly unsolvable macroeconomic problem.

One more way to look at it is if Germany goes against her interests in Ukraine by supporting the Washington war drive then she earns the right to lead in negotiations with Greece. This means that the Moscovici document that Varoufakis was willing to sign but that was withdrawn at that last moment by Jeroen Dijsselbloem at Germany's behest will not be recycled. There are reports in the media that this is what is in the works.

Right now, given Germany's reaction to the fall of Debaltseve, it looks like continued impasse between the troika and Greece.

The Bum Rush is On + Gonjasufi's A Sufi and a Killer

Judging from the Gray Lady's headline, "Insurgents Said to Block Jet’s Crash Site," the "newspaper of record" is returning to wartime propaganda mode where every proclamation by the Kiev junta is presented as fact. The coup government is saying that the Novorossiyans are blocking access to the crash site. There are also new allegations that several SA-11 (BUK-M1) antiaircraft missile systems were schlepped across the border into Russia after the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17:

The Ukrainian government on Saturday also provided new details about the missile attack on the passenger jet, saying the rocket was fired from a BUK-M1 antiaircraft system in the town of Snizhne, about 12 miles from the Russian border.

Vitaly Nayda, the head of counterintelligence for the Ukrainian State Security Service, said at a news conference that separatist rebels had been in possession of at least three BUK-M1 systems, and that after the Flight 17 disaster had taken them across the border into Russia . “We have identified the place from which they launched that missile,” Mr. Nayda said. “That area where they launched the missile was under control of terrorist organizations.” 

Officials were certain, he said, that the rebels knew they were aiming at a plane flying above 10,000 meters, or 32,800 feet. While this is in the range of a passenger jet’s normal cruising altitude, he also said that Ukrainian military aircraft sometimes fly that high. “There is no doubt that terrorists knew that they had launched a missile against a plane that was higher than 10,000 meters,” Mr. Nayda said, adding, “We know for sure that the terrorists have the plan to shoot down every military plane, every military plane, even cargo plane, every helicopter, in the air over Donetsk and Luhansk regions.” 

Speaking in Kiev, the capital, Mr. Nayda presented photographs that he said showed the BUK-M1 systems in Donetsk, as well as on the road toward Russia. He said that at 2 a.m. on Friday -- less than 12 hours after the Malaysian jet fell from the skies -- two BUK-M1 systems were taken across the border into Russia and that a third was taken across the border at 4 a.m. along with a vehicle used to help operate the surface-to-air missile system.

This is all fantastic bullshit of course. What we are now witnessing is a propaganda bum rush where the U.S. and its fascist concoction in Kiev are attempting to stampede public opinion towards the blame of Russia. The target audience here is Europe. It is settled wisdom that in a public opinion campaign the side that can shape the narrative first is the side that wins. Regardless of the eventual outcome of the investigation as to what caused the Boeing 777 to blow apart in midair and who is responsible, if the U.S. gets out front first it controls the story.

We saw the exact thing happen with the Ghouta chemical attack last August. Obama came forth stridently and assured the public the Assad regime was to blame. There was no question. The Syrian government fired sarin-laden missiles at its own people, slaughtering innocent women and children. When Obama's ironclad guarantees of Assad's guilt collapsed, when evidence emerged that Jihadis had access to sarin, was there any mea culpa by the administration? Of course not. The U.S. is doing the same thing now with Flight 17.

The Saker has a good overview of what is happening in his post, "Memories, recollections, guesses and speculations about MH17," the first paragraph of which reads:

I think that any analysis of the events surrounding the downing of MH17 should begin with the following admission: no matter what, the AngloZionists will blame Russia. Just like 9/11, there is no way, no amount of evidence, which would affect the unanimous chorus of Imperial doubleplusgoodthinkers in their conclusion that obviously it could only have been "the Russians". So don't expect to come across The Proof which will prove that the Empire is lying because if 9/11 proved anything it is that even hard, undeniable truth can be easily ignored by the elites and their media.

In the meantime, to help relax on this Saturday, check out Gonjasufi's 2010 full-length release, A Sufi and a Killer. Gonjasufi, a.k.a., Sumach Ecks, a Las Vegas yoga instructor, produces lo-fi trip hop that is soothing and quiet. I think you will enjoy it. Recently, the whole album was available to stream for free on YouTube. But now I can only find individual tracks. "Kowboyz&indians," though not my favorite, is usually the cut that is selected:

Russia Has Already Won

The city of Slovyansk fell yesterday to the Kiev junta. The blue-and-yellow Ukrainian national flag flies from the city council building as Ukrainian soldiers patrol the streets. The junta could not resist crowing, as reported by David Herszenhorn in "Pro-Russian Fighters Routed From Stronghold, Ukraine Says":

Government officials were jubilant. “Run!” the Ukrainian interior minister, Arsen Avakov, wrote in a Facebook post on the retaking of Slovyansk. “The terrorists are bearing losses, surrendering.” 

Ukrainian officials said that those fleeing included the well-known commander Igor Girkin, who the authorities here say worked for the Russian military’s foreign intelligence directorate. In east Ukraine, he identified himself as Col. Igor Strelkov, which means shooter or gunman. 

Mr. Strelkov had posted a video on YouTube on Friday, pleading with Mr. Putin for broad-scale military support and predicting that Slovyansk would fall if help did not arrive soon. 

“The enemy has so much ammunition — I did not see so much in Chechnya,” he said, apparently referring to his time fighting in the Russian Army against Islamic separatists there.

The city of Kramatorsk is also under junta control.

Putin is being impugned as a "nothing man" for saying that he would defend the ethnic Russians of Novorossiya:

With the separatists losing ground, there were signs of growing frustration in the east with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia for not making good on his promises to defend Russian people in a land with historic ties that he has referred to as New Russia. 

“What to say,” a rebel leader, Denis Pushilin, wrote on Twitter. “We were given hope. Given hope and abandoned. Nice were words of Putin about protecting the Russian, protecting New Russia. But only words.”

A sample of "the sky is falling" thinking is a post by Mark Sleboda, "What the Kremlin's inaction over the Ukraine means for Russia's geopolitics, international relations, and the Eurasian Union,"
which appeared on The Saker's blog yesterday:

If Putin's inaction in the face of what is happening in the Ukraine continue much longer it will not only mean the loss of Ukraine to the West, but in the long-term the suicide of Putin's own plans for a re-consolidation of even the core of the post-Soviet space particularly in the form of the Eurasian Union, as well as the end of dreams of a wider Eurasian civilization or "Russian world". The US will have achieved its primary goal in all of this, Russia's geopolitical horizons will shrink further to its own borders (or not even that), and it will in truth fade and diminish itself to the role and form of just another "normal nation-state" as fifth columnists like Dmitri Trenin at Carnegie speak of so longingly. "The end of Eurasia" as he once put it, in truth...

I don't think so. I think time is on Russia's side. Yes, Putin is coldly sacrificing the citizens of Novorossiya. But this is what heads of state do. The big picture is economic growth and trade with Europe. Let's remember that the Kiev coup was all about a trade agreement. Yanukovych was not allowed to bargain with both Russia and the EU. He was made by Europe to choose sides, one or the other. When he saw the onerous terms of the IMF bailout, he went with Putin's more generous offer.

While the Europeans were motivated by securing superior commercial arrangements, the United States was interested in two things: 1) keeping the EU yoked to a North Atlantic Alliance under the full sway of U.S. dominance, and 2) breaking off the prize chunk of former Soviet space real estate, the Lebensraum Eurasia land bridge of Ukraine.

I would argue that Russia has already won. Europe has abandoned any further U.S.-led sanctions and is talking with Moscow about the terms of Ukraine's association agreement, something it had refused to do earlier. There is no doubt that Germany has been alienated by the actions of Washington's neocons; France, too. Even Cameron has been a lackluster ally to D.C. Merkel knows that future German growth lies to the East.

And what is the actual strategic impact of the Strelkov's retreat from Slovyansk? Very little according to Dmitry Steshin:

Undoubtedly, Slavyansk became the symbol of the “Russian Spring,” moreover – it entered history. Forever. But the purpose of the city was different. Slavyansk attracted to itself all the battle-worthy forces of the Ukrainian army, it enabled the mobilization of the Militia in Lugansk and Donetsk. Slavyansk gave Mozgovoi an opportunity to crack the border on land and in the air. Whereby something real (you do not need to tell me about virtual YouTube armoured columns) actually made it into the region, by dribs and drabs, including “Tunguskas” purchased at the GUM [Note: GUM, or “State Universal Market,” in Moscow]. Slavyansk enabled the rest of the region to set up almost a dozen reinforced centres of resistance. Finally, it was Slavyansk that brought down the majority of Ukrainian fliers. And the “Slavic Sky” came true in every regard. Finally, Slavyansk gave the South-East time to create political centres of power, allowed to legitimize them, and, of course, provided covering fire for the referendum. And, one last thing, – thousands of untried militiamen and volunteers passed through the trenches of Slavyansk, all with minimal losses.

By the middle of June, Slavyansk outlived itself. Having drawn and bound to itself an enormous army grouping, the city, at the same time, required an ever-larger garrison, and, in return, started to tie up the not inexhaustible human and technical resources of the Donbass People’s Army. Besides, being the legal Commander-in-Chief of the Militia, Igor Ivanovich [Strelkov] could not provide fulsome guidance to his army from a besieged city. He had a direct line to the DPR government (I do not know about LPR), but this was, understandably, not enough for adequate control over the Militia units, each of which was beholden to the charisma of its direct commander. In a situation like that you need a “mega-Batka” [Note: Batka – an Old Man], but “mega-Batka” was forced to sit in Slavyansk and wax melancholy. I won’t be afraid of this word – he grew bored with blowing up endless ammunitions store on Karachun and pummeling Ukrainian checkpoints on the near and far outskirts of the city. Igor Ivanovich needed operational freedom, and, this night, he finally found it. Don’t forget – he came to Slavyansk some time ago with a few battered automatic rifles and even smoothbore “Saiga” and “Vepr.” He left with a column of armoured vehicles. No need to even mention the loads of other equipment.

Let Kiev crow. Its victory is cosmetic. It doesn't change the reality that the state it is creating is not a viable one. Inherently unstable, bankrupt, energy dependent on a shrewd behemoth, the chickens are bound to come home to roost. The name of that home? The Saker called it months ago. Banderastan.

Hiding in the Basement Wearing Flip Flops and Shorts

On Wednesday The Saker posted a partial translation of an interview with Nikolai Starikov. Starikov is a Russian author and political activist. The segment of the interview that caught my attention is the part where Starikov discusses the relatively small numbers of Donbass citizens who have joined the armed struggle against the Kiev junta:

It’s easy for us here in Russia to discuss these topics, but over there [Novorossia] there are shootings, bombings and killings taking place. The situation is such that the civil war has begun and there are two ways to end it. Either the country of Nazis/fascists side of the illegitimate Kiev junta wins or those who do not want to live under fascist rule win. There is no other way to end this civil war. Because Americans would never agree to negotiations, which would result in separation of a part of Ukraine and they will continue the military operation. Therefore, for the people who live there in the Ukraine there is a choice. A person always has a choice –but a very limited choice. You either continue living your average civilian life, and that’s understandable, we understand why people make that choice, they just want to continue living, no person really wants to go to war, a normal person would never want to kill others. The Right Sector would inevitably start shooting at someone, they go into Mariupol, and they go to Odessa and kill. A normal person does not want to kill anyone, but there won’t be any life in the future if you remain on the sidelines of the conflict, allowing Americans to continue doing what they want. This is the point where you have to choose, dear citizens of Ukraine. Unfortunately the reason why we are separated by state borders, is because of the traitor Gorbachov. Today it is a reality. But I am convinced that sooner or later we will be together as part of a supranational entity. Russia can only provide limited aid today. We cannot do this for Ukraine, that is the paradox. When the reader asked this question, he never even considered to take up arms and defend his native Donetsk. He goes to work, he wants to feed his family, the maximum he would do is leave Donetsk, maybe move to somewhere in Russia. But if everyone leaves Donetsk, who is going to defend it? Volunteers from Russia? The Russian Army? That cannot be. The Russian Army cannot be a part of this conflict, Russia should not be dragged into this. This is exactly what the West wants. Things were done quite elegantly in Crimea. The Russian Army was already stationed there, but did not really take part in the conflict. Everything was done by the Self-Defense Forces. This was done beautifully and it is very difficult to dispute that. In Donetsk today, there are Self-Defense Forces, but they cannot deal with the tasks at hand in their current numbers of men.   They have weapons in Ukraine, with supplies of Artyomovsky warehouse you can arm all Ukraine twice. Not enough people who understand that they have no other choice, but to take up weapons to protect their families and freedom. Look at Slavyansk, so frequently women and children are shown to be leaving, but so often you can see young man leaving. They stand by their ladies in shorts and flip flops telling how they hide in basement. They will continue hiding until victory of state of Ukraine. If they want to see end of shelling they have to go and help militias. There is no other option. 

I think Starikov is right. You have to be willing to fight. Something we have lost sight of here in the belly of the beast. We had the chance at the end of autumn 2011 when most of the Occupy encampments were rolled up by means of police force. The response was largely nonexistent. We decided instead to hide in the basement in shorts and flip flops and consume the televised theatrics of a presidential campaign. And that's the way it usually goes in the United States.

But apparently not so in Iraq. There, reporting from Baghdad, old Afghan hands Alissa Rubin and Rod Nordland, say that "Seeing Their Gains at Risk, Shiites Flock to Join Militias":

Ali, another Shiite militia leader, described the militias more as a recruiting mechanism, and said the members would work full time for the army. “Now we have more than 14,000 volunteers in Muthanna Airport,” he said. “They came from all the provinces, but most of them from Baghdad. What we want is building a companion army from the volunteers, and this army will be supervised, equipped and run by the government. It’s similar to a public army. 

“All Shiite factions have pushed their disagreements away and decided to join this army to protect Baghdad,” he said, adding a note of urgency: “The militants are just outside Baghdad, and even the main road between Baghdad and Diyala is partially under their control.”

The Shia have their holy places, What do we have here in the U.S.? We, as in Cairo and in Odessa, have our football teams. That's about it. We also have our comicbook heroes. But both the stars of gridiron and the comic shop have largely been politically neutered. In the case of comics though there is plenty of subversiveness just below the surface. And occasionally in football reality peeks out, as in the Richard Sherman NFC Championship Game brouhaha.

All in all we are a quiescent mass, attired in flip flops and boxer shorts, preferring the comfort of the basement hideout to the struggle that real as opposed to merely formal democracy demands.

Donbass Fighting for the Future of the World

The Gray Lady has gone silent, minus a perfunctory story filed by David Herszenhorn over the weekend regarding Petroshenko's inauguration ceremony, about rapidly unfolding events in Ukraine. She does include this Associated Press story this morning:

SLOVYANSK, Ukraine — Several buildings have been damaged by shelling in an eastern Ukraine city controlled by pro-Russian separatists. 

An AP reporter in downtown Slovyansk saw five buildings on Monday that had suffered heavy damage. Slovyansk has been the epicenter of a nearly two-month standoff between Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian rebels, who have seized administrative buildings, police stations and border posts across the region. 

Residents said the shelling happened on Sunday. Rebels have held the Ukrainian government responsible for the rising number of civilian casualties in the conflict, while Ukraine has insisted that the pro-Russian rebels are responsible for the bloodshed. 

On Saturday, Ukraine's new president, Petro Poroshenko, was sworn into office, calling for armed groups to lay down their weapons and promising amnesty for those "without blood on their hands."

The Saker has pointed things to say about the speech Poroshenko gave at his swearing-in ceremony:

Poroshenko did more than just spew some garden variety Ukie nonsense. He specifically committed himself to one language, no federation, no negotiations (at least not with those folks who matter) and he topped it all with a completely surreal statement about the Crimea being forever Ukie. Ok, these are not just words, the man cornered himself into a crazy, maximalist position. Some ask what I was expecting and say add that Poroshenko had no other options. Nonsense! He could have said something along these lines: 

The blood of the glorious Ukrainian people is sacred to me and my first duty is to prevent it from being spilled (= stop the shelling). I shall never rest until each and every Ukrainian will feel that he/she is a precious part of an inclusive Ukrainian society whose historical roots have always been diverse and multi-national (language issue). The Ukraine must forever become a land of peace and peaceful trade (= neutrality). There is no personal sacrifice I shall not consent to achieve these lofty goals (= negotiate with the Novorossians). Etc. etc. etc.

Guys, this is not that hard. Not to mention that NOW would have been the correct time to get rid of the Nazis while the "eyes of the world" were upon the "legitimate President of the Ukraine". 

Poroshenko totally blew it. Totally.

And not because he is dumb. All those who know him agree on two things: he is a total prostitute and he is very smart. In this case, he was simply reading the speech written for him by Uncle Shmuel. 

So that is what changed:

a) a total collapse and surrender by the EU 1%ers
b) a total sellout of Poroshenko to Uncle Shmuel

And this is why I see no point in waiting any longer. That, and the fact that if time is on Russia's side (which it is - Banderastan is not viable), time is not on the side of the people of Novorossia who need help now.

The question on everyone's mind is, "Why isn't Russia doing anything?" I assume the Gray Lady's silence is evidence that she is killing stories from her reporters in Donbass -- Sabrina Tavernise and Andrew Roth -- because these stories reveal what is going on -- that the Ukrainian military is using heavy-duty artillery on civilians. What Samantha Power would call a war crime if it weren't for the fact that U.S. is actively supporting the Kiev's junta ATO ("Anti-Terrorist Operation").

So why the appearance of passivity from the Kremlin? Certainly it can't be playing well on the streets of Moscow. Check out this quote from a Russia TV1 talk show "Policy" panelist. I gleaned it from Niqnaq's blog:

KAREN SHAKHNAZAROV, film Director, people’s artist of Russia: I’ll tell you this, as I see it. In principle, in parallel, there are many conflicts in the world: in Mali, Sudan… With great sacrifice. And in my opinion, Donetsk and Lugansk will today decide the fate of the world. And these few thousand brave and daring people, militia, probably some thousands, not more, have in their hands the fate of the world. What will happen? If they lose, Ukraine fully falls under the West. Surely there will be a NATO base after some time. Russia pushed all the way in Asia, Russia will have to find real military allies in Asia or in the Islamic world. The world will split exactly in the confrontation, as Orwell’s “1984″, on the East and the West. It’ll turn out all that great and, possibly nuclear war. If the militia wins, then Usaia will lose its leadership role, that’s all. Russia is returning to Europe, where in 1991 it was pushed out. The role of Germany is sharply rising. Most likely draw the Alliance between Germany and Russia. A different configuration. And all this is now in the hands of these really. All history is made by a small number of people. You know, Latin America was conquered, Siberia. Now the question: what should Russia do? Indeed, Russia is facing a very difficult situation, because Russia today is like a boxer who came out to the ring and did not know what to do. Russia, I think it is time to understand that it is war. To understand and even to declare. Because look at how cleverly Obama proceeds: he says, “No, we do not start a Cold War. No, no, no, no Cold War, no speech.” Why does he do this? Because in the West, in Usaia, the huge majority of the public does not want a Cold War. And if Russia will publicly announce that we see a threat to our national interest, that we believe that we are in the Cold War, believe me, many in Western Europe and in Usaia will look at this conflict in a completely different way. I think it is necessary to act today. And this, by the way, today Russia is not yet practically threatened. So I would first of all realize, because to me it’s obvious, of course, it is clear that humanitarian assistance is needed, some support is needed. But we must understand that these guys out there who are fighting, they’re fighting for the future of the world.

Russians perceive the stakes as nothing less than the future of the world. And while it appears that the Kremlin is rolling over -- pulling back troops from its own border; Putin promising to do a better job preventing the free flow of fighters and weapons to Donbass -- something deeper is going on. The thing to remember -- and I'm not engaging in hero worship here, just sharing an opinion based on my interpretation of past events -- is that Putin, though caught off guard by the fascist putsch of February, has handled the situation with a great deal of skill and finesse. Compare it to the lies and the unseemly shrieking by the United States.

I think there is some reason to speculate that Russia has not gone into Donbass as it did in Crimea (ignoring all the obvious reasons) because the U.S. has let it be known that Syria would shortly see a no-fly zone established by Western powers. In other words, the U.S., unable to directly engage the Kremlin militarily in Ukraine, is threatening to blow up the Middle East.

Russia is relying on the ability of the federalization militias in Donbass to hold on while Moscow attempts to negotiate with Kiev. Poroshenko's rhetorical bombshell is a way of telling Russia, "Don't bother."

We'll see. Maybe Poroshenko's rhetorical bombshell is just that, rhetoric, designed to mollify Ukrainian ultra-nationalism (a.k.a., fascism), and, given a few more weeks of atrocities committed by his troops, he will cut a deal.

In any event, the Russian red line is approaching. Once the U.S./EU go after Russia's energy sector and declare sanctions on Gazprom, all bets are off. That is why I don't think we'll get there. In the meantime, while we are safe and snug in our normal routines, the people of Donbass are going to suffer.

Fighting Begins in Slovyansk

Separatist forces in the eastern Ukrainian stronghold of Slovyansk brought down two government helicopters on Friday, killing two of their occupants, the Ukraiainan Defense Ministry said, as government forces launched what was termed the “active phase” of an assault to dislodge militants. 

The military action drew a broadside of protest and indignation from the Kremlin, which said the assault had effectively destroyed “all hope” for a plan to defuse the growing tensions in Ukraine negotiated last month in Geneva by the United States, Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. 

Blaming the Kiev authorities, a spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, Dmitri S. Peskov, told Russian news agencies: “The Kiev regime ordered combat aircraft to fire at civilian towns and villages, launching a ‘punitive operation’ and effectively destroying all hope for the viability of the Geneva agreements.” 

By early afternoon, military operations in and around Slovyansk appeared to have ceased, leaving the region in a state of tension. Moscow repeated its warning that it reserved the right to intervene to protect its interests and Russian-leaning residents of eastern Ukraine, but there were no signs of an imminent move across the border.

That report this morning comes from Neil MacFarquhar and Alan Cowell, "Clashes in Eastern Ukraine as Moscow Issues New Warnings." Yesterday Putin demanded that the coup government demilitarize eastern Ukraine and enter a dialogue to resolve the nation's conflict. A sensible path forward. Washington's puppets provided their nonsensical reply with the attack on Slovyansk. Moscow says that American mercenaries are rounding out the Ukrainian forces attacking Russian-speaking civilians:

The Russian foreign ministry and state-run media also repeated the accusation, again with no evidence, that there were “English-speaking officers” among the attackers. The foreign ministry said that American “mercenaries” could not be working in Ukraine without State Department approval. 

Mr. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, was speaking shortly after the Defense Ministry in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, acknowledged the loss of two military helicopters. The Ukrainian domestic-intelligence agency, S.B.U., said the apparent use of shoulder-fired missiles against one of the helicopters showed that the separatists had outside support.

If two helicopters were brought down in short order during the opening phases of the assault on Slovyansk this does not bode well for the putschists. The attrition required to reestablish control in the many cities and towns of the east would be too great. The presence of shoulder-fired missiles among the pro-federalization protesters means they have an answer to putschist armor.

There is no question this is being driven by planners in the United States. Once again, cracking a state open -- think Libya, think Syria -- with all the attendant death, destruction and instability is a preferable outcome for the D.C. smart set than coming to the bargaining table and negotiating a peaceful settlement.

Because coming to the negotiating table and bargaining in good faith would necessarily entail acknowledging the huge, legitimate interests Russia has in the region and the reality that Ukraine is a nation divided between the industrial, pro-Russian east and the ultra-nationalist west of what The Saker has termed "Banderastan." Any agreement is going to have to include federalization of Ukraine -- federalization and neutrality. The United States is not willing to accept this reality. So it is actively engaged in the destruction of the Ukrainian state. The putschists are willing accomplices because they came to power illegitimately. Isn't this obvious?