Momentum, not political organization or money, is what mattered.
Mr. Biden’s incredible 72 hours between his victory in South Carolina and the first poll closings on Super Tuesday exerted a kind of gravitational pull rarely seen in politics. Three opponents dropped out (Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer) and then three former rivals endorsed him in dramatic fashion on Monday in Dallas (Mr. Buttigieg, Ms. Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke).
Political operatives marveled at the thoroughness and speed of his consolidation of support. Kevin Cate, a former adviser to Mr. Steyer, noted that the cumulative value of Mr. Biden’s final three days of almost pure positive media coverage amounted to a staggering $72 million, according to Critical Mention, a monitoring company.
The question remained: Would there be enough time for all that to sink in and affect the Super Tuesday results? The resounding answer was yes.
For all of Mr. Bloomberg’s money — he spent more than $100 for every $1 that Mr. Biden invested on television in Super Tuesday states — and the organizational advantages that he and Mr. Sanders had, the momentum and free media attention proved far more important.
In Texas, which Mr. Biden won, he captured half of those who decided on primary day or “the last few days” — well more than double Mr. Sanders, who drew more support among those who decided earlier. It was the same story in Massachusetts. And Maine. And Virginia. Just about everywhere.
[snip]
Even Mr. Biden seemed taken aback by the breadth of victories that would have seemed nearly unimaginable a few days ago. He won in Minnesota, where barely 36 hours earlier the home-state senator had been strongly favored and where Mr. Biden was not even seriously contesting.
On Mr. Biden’s own website, his “find a field office” page featured only eight offices in the 14 states that voted on Tuesday (an aide said the total was actually nine).Calling the lockstep coordination of mainstream corporate media with Democratic political leadership "momentum" obscures the establishment freak-out that occurred post-Nevada.
On the eve of the Nevada caucus, the Washington Post and New York Times reported that the intelligence community suspected Russia was working to elect Bernie Sanders. Then, on the Sunday after the Saturday Nevada caucus, Anderson Cooper of 60 Minutes interviewed Bernie Sanders, playing a videotape from the 1980s showing then Burlington mayor Sanders praising Cuba's efforts to increase literacy. Next came the Tuesday debate in South Carolina where Biden and Buttigieg tag-teamed Bernie for backing Fidel Castro. Wednesday James Clyburn endorsed Biden. Saturday Biden won a commanding victory in South Carolina, which was followed by Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out of the presidential race and endorsing Biden on Monday, Super Tuesday eve.
Red-baiting still works. Biden, who prior to his win in South Carolina, hadn't campaigned in a Super Tuesday state in a month, won in Massachusetts and Minnesota, which is incredible.
The state I was keeping an eye on was Texas. I figured if Bernie could win there he could win the nomination. Sanders didn't win there. Biden narrowly beat him.
We have to consider Super Tuesday's result in a league with other spectacular electoral achievements of peak neoliberalism -- Macron's 2017 En Marche! victory and Boris Johnson's 2019 Tory landslide. The zombie paradigm is displaying an increasing number of marvels at the polls.
Nonetheless we're talking right now about a Super Tuesday delegate haul of 390 for Biden, 330 for Sanders, far short of the FiveThirtyEight's Biden overperformance scenario, which had Biden winning 614 delegates to Bernie's 445. Delegates remain to be allocated in California. AP called the state immediately for Sanders. Though the late vote shifted to Biden in other states, Gamio and Goldmacher think Super Tuesday will basically end close to a draw, and the national polling average still shows Bernie in the lead.
So it's not dark yet, but it's getting there.
There's only one path forward for the Sanders campaign. It has to go negative and start hammering Biden's lengthy, loathsome voting record in the senate. Biden shepherded the invasion of Iraq through the Foreign Relations Committee, which he chaired. Up until now the Sanders campaign has yet to run one negative television ad. That has to change.
After the 2016 electoral debacle, I figured that Bernie would run again; that once again the DNC would block him; and then the Democratic Party would split.
We're not quite there yet because Biden might win the nomination outright and paper over and tape up any fissure. More Democratic voters appear to be willing to go whistling past the graveyard than I imagined.
Sanders has to win Washington and he has to win Michigan on March 10, and he has to do it by spotlighting Biden's neoconservatism and neoliberalism.
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