Erdogan has Run Out of Room to Maneuver

According to Carlotta Gall, "Turkey Declares Major Offensive Against Syrian Government":

Sunday’s announcement appears to be a declaration of what was already underway for days, but also signals a sharp increase in the level of activity, Turkish analysts said.

Turkey has sought support from the United States and other NATO allies in its attempt to thwart the Syrian and Russia offensive in Idlib, but it appears to be conducting the operation alone.

Western officials have ruled out an engagement of NATO troops but have been helping Turkey in other ways, in particular with information. Jens Stoltenburg, the NATO secretary general, said after an emergency meeting Friday that NATO was providing airborne radar surveillance over Syria.

Reuters is reporting the recapture of Saraqeb:

Syrian state television broadcast live footage from inside Saraqeb, which lies on the country’s main north-south highway, and said it was under government control. Rebels denied the report, saying they still held the town despite heavy shelling.

Saraqeb has already changed hands twice in less than a month, reflecting its importance both as a gateway to the government-controlled northern city of Aleppo and to the rebel-held Idlib city to the west.

Rebels said Turkish drones had been striking Syrian army positions on the Saraqeb frontline, hitting at least two rocket launchers.

Colonel Cassad is less hesitant: The Syrian Arab Army fighting alongside Hezbollah has taken the city from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), ISIS and Turkey.

A scramble is underway prior to Erdogan traveling to Russia to meet with Putin this Thursday. Presumably, some sort of ceasefire will be announced because Erdogan is on shaky ground. Russia control the skies over Idlib, with the exception of some sort of allowance for Turkish drones, and this means that any sort of mechanized offensive by the Turkish army becomes a "turkey shoot" for Russian pilots.

Erdogan is skillful at managing the press. But so far his turning on of the refugee spigot has backfired. Greece and Bulgaria have blocked their borders with Turkey and are repelling the refugees; the Western corporate press has uniformly tagged Erdogan's decision a cynical ploy to engage NATO in a war with Russia.

No, Erdogan has run out of room to maneuver. He needs a ceasefire from Moscow. It'll be interesting to see if all Erdogan ends up with is the Gaza Strip along the Turkish border with northern Idlib that Gall predicted last month.