The Scenario Where Biden Beats Trump

It's hard not to feel as if we are on the cusp of a great reckoning. The global economy floats on a sea of "fake money." As Nick Beams of WSWS reports:

Global debt is on track to reach an all-time high of more than $257 trillion in the coming months after surging by around $9 trillion in the first three quarters of 2019, according to a report issued by the Institute for International Finance earlier this month.

Total debt now amounts to $32,500 for each of the world’s population of 7.7 billion and stands at 320 percent of global gross domestic product. In the major economies, total debt is $180 trillion, equivalent to 383 percent of their combined GDP.

It cannot be sustained. In an annual survey of chief executives, more than half believe a recession is on the way in 2020. Only 29% felt that way last year.

Given that Trump is in Davos boasting that "The American dream is back, bigger, better and stronger than ever,” when the recession comes,  if it comes before November, it should be devastating to his reelection hopes. But Trump, impending recession and all, has an ace in the hole. Hillary Clinton has for all intents and purposes announced that the DNC will not support Bernie Sanders. According to Patrick Martin of WSWS,

The vicious tone of Clinton’s declaration is revealing. If Sanders were to become the frontrunner for the nomination, the party establishment and the media would seek to wreck his campaign. If Sanders won the nomination, they would try to defeat him, either openly supporting Trump or running a third-party “independent” candidate such as billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who has already entered the Democratic contest for the purpose of blocking Sanders. If, despite such efforts, Sanders were to win the general election, they would seek to sabotage his administration and block any attempt to pass Sanders-backed legislation through Congress.

Martin is wrong on Bloomberg. Bloomberg's strategy to capture the Democratic Party nomination by focusing on primaries beginning with Super Tuesday March 3 precludes an independent presidential campaign. Maybe if Bloomberg rolled up his Democratic Party candidacy early, like late April, and quickly pivoted to gaining ballot access as an independent, maybe he could do it. I'm sure he has professionals on the payroll who have gamed out every possible scenario. The only scenario where Bloomberg might pursue an independent presidential campaign is one where Bernie locks up the necessary delegates to win the nomination after sweeping Super Tuesday. That's extremely unlikely.

What's unknown at this point in the Democratic Primary is how strong Biden is going to be on election day March 3. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada should all be relatively close contests. Biden should win South Carolina by double digits. If Biden can then parlay a strong showing in South Carolina into an approximate performance on Super Tuesday, then mainstream corporate media will begin his coronation.

My guess is if the first signs of recession appear late spring, early summer, and the recession widens as we move into fall, then Biden -- old addled corrupt Iraq war-voting, NAFTA-loving, financial services Delaware Joe -- beats Trump in November.