There is this morning a chink of light to avoid yet more devastation in the Middle East. Iran’s missile strikes last night were calibrated to satisfy honour while avoiding damage that would trigger automatically the next round. The missiles appear to have been fitted out with very light warhead payloads indeed – their purpose was to look good in the dark going up into the night sky. There is every reason to believe the apparent lack of US casualties was deliberate.
Even more important was the Iraqi statement that “proportionate measures” had been “taken and concluded” and they did not seek “further escalation”.The "apparent lack of U.S. casualties" is muddied by Iranian news agency Fars reporting "at least 80 US arm personnel have been killed and around 200 others wounded." Then there's the mysterious fatal crash of a Ukrainian 737 leaving Tehran. A Moon of Alabama commentator noted
The Boeing 737-800 Ukrainian Airlines was most likely shoot down by one of these fine shoulder launched missiles. The plane has no problem flying on one engine even on take-off. Most of these missiles are heat seeking, so they would hit the engine and start that fire that we saw in the video.
With just the video and radar information at this time it is all about statistics. Pilot error or mechanical problems are statistically unlikely compared to an eternal missile attack right after the Iranian attack on US bases.
As far as who did it? Just ask who benefits?Trump, on the verge of political doom, will likely be mollified by the death of 147 Iranians compared to 80 U.S. servicemen; hence, there's a good chance of no further escalation. That puts us back to the status quo ante, but not quite, since the Iraqis are on record requesting that the United States military vacate the country.
Iran was winning the shadow war. So a return to the "shadow war ante" is in Iran's interest. But now Tehran will refocus its energies on the long-term strategy, as president Hassan Rouhani promised, of driving all U.S. forces out of the region.
Trump and his coterie of Likudniks, evangelicals and Wahhabites will favor a return to the shadow war ante until after he's reelected. Then we'll be treated to the regime change "full monty."
The airliner crash looks very much like a false flag. Why would Iran shoot down a civilian airliner after assiduously avoiding killing Americans at those two airfields? Include Ukraine, the current center of worldwide fascism, in this and you have your path to solving this.
ReplyDeleteIt makes no sense for Iranians to do this. It makes all the sense in the world to add to the stack of reasons being assembled to to make Iran the bad guys.
I agree. I watched the ABC News iteration of "Iran did it," and it implied that someone had inadvertently switched on an automated missile defense system that mistakenly targeted the Ukrainian 737. Complete bullshit. Spooks spit-balling.
ReplyDeleteApparently not:
ReplyDelete"Iran’s military announced early Saturday that it had accidentally shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, blaming human error because of what it called the plane’s sharp, unexpected turn toward a sensitive military base.
"After days of tension since the jet crashed near Tehran on Wednesday, the same day that Iranian missiles struck American bases in Iraq, the admission was a stunning reversal. Iran initially maintained that mechanical issues had brought the Boeing airliner down, killing all 176 people aboard.
"'The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake,' President Hassan Rouhani said on Twitter soon after the military released its statement. He offered condolences to the victims’ families and said investigations were underway. The military said the person responsible would face legal consequences."
Farnaz Fassihi, "Iran Says It Unintentionally Shot Down Ukrainian Airliner"