It's hard not to come away from reading yesterday's Water Cooler thinking that Bernie Sanders is going to win the Democratic Primary. He's up in Iowa; he's up in New Hampshire; and he's seriously pulling away in California while Joe Biden's support plummets in the Golden State. The one handhold Biden maintains is South Carolina. But is South Carolina enough to turn things around for Obama's VP? No, I think not.
The downside to Bernie's front-running is that if there is an upset in Iowa or New Hampshire the corporate media frenzy it will kick off will be intense and deafening. I believe Bernie could weather a second-place finish in either of these first two states because he has built such formidable campaign operation -- Sanders is much better able to deal with setbacks than his Democratic Party rivals -- but under-performance after surging in the polls is not a good look.
The political establishment is beginning to line up its sharpshooters. A pro-Israel, pro-war-with-Iran Democratic Super PAC, "Democratic Majority for Israel," started anti-Sanders attack ads yesterday in Iowa. It's not that Sanders is anti-Israel; it's that he is anti-war and pro-Palestinian. For a candidate of either of the two major parties, these perspectives are not allowed. One could argue that Trump's big hustle in 2016 was convincing enough swing voters he was a legitimate anti-war voice. Trump will not be able to repeat that legerdemain in 2020.
The attack made by "Democratic Majority for Israel" is two-prong: one, Bernie is unelectable; and two, Bernie is too old and unhealthy, having recently suffered a heart attack. The first prong is the one that is going to get plenty of traction in the corporate media if the polls are correct and Bernie rolls along in February picking up Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. He'll be called the George McGovern of 2020.
In the back of my mind are the shocking December 12 UK general election results. Corbyn is an old anti-war campaigner like Sanders, and the Tories made mincemeat out of him.
But I'm getting ahead of myself. Bernie has to make it through the primaries first. The fundamental reason why I think he will is that the Democratic establishment has not settled on any one candidate. First it was Kamala Harris. Then it was Beto Then it was Buttgieg. Then it was on-and-off-again with Warren. Then it was Klobuchar. It's always been Biden but also not-Biden.
The plutocrats who run the DNC cannot decide. On the other hand, Sanders has maintained his supporters from the last go-round while at the same time he has widened his base of support to include more Latinos and African-Americans.
Trump is pulling out the stops to make sure GOP caucus participation in Iowa is robust, while Trump surrogates attempt to buy black votes. It is going to be a fascinating and hideous election year.
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