Saturday, January 25, 2020

Obama to Campaign for Bloomberg? Don't be Surprised.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers (see "Sanders Seizes Lead in Volatile Iowa Race, Times Poll Finds" by Jonathan Martin and Sydney Ember) shows Bernie surging prior to the February 3 vote.

Bernie leads the field at 25%. Biden and Buttigieg are frozen in the high teens, and Elizabeth Warren is fading at 15%.

Warren's misogyny-baiting attack on Sanders has backfired. According to The Times:
And while Ms. Warren’s support fell across nearly all groups in the poll, her decline was particularly pronounced among young voters. Just 16 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds supported her in the poll, down from 38 percent in October.
Is there a scenario where Warren can win the nomination? Not if she loses Iowa and New Hampshire, and that's what the polls are saying is going to happen.

It's strange because Warren looked like the nominee this past summer, the Goldilocks candidate who could unite moderates with the Bernie Bros. Warren's failure means it's either a moderate, Biden at this point, or Sanders. Given that "either/or," recent polls are showing voters moving to Bernie.

If Biden stumbles and under-performs in the first three primary states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada -- the pressure on Obama is going to be intense to take to the hustings for Mike Bloomberg.

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