Erdoğan Pledges to Settle One Million Refugees in Syrian Buffer Zone

Carlotta Gall had a must-read article the other day, "Turkey’s Radical Plan: Send a Million Refugees Back to Syria." Turkey is cracking down on Syrian refugees within its borders. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan promises to build new cities and resettle one million Syrians in the "safe zones" Turkey is negotiating with the United States. The safe zones, or buffer zones, are in U.S.-backed Kurdish-controlled territory in Syria, a.k.a., Rojava. As Gall notes,

The United States and Turkey agreed in principle last month to establish a jointly patrolled zone for refugees along the border but they are still negotiating the details and major differences remain.

Mr. Erdogan wants the zone to be 20 miles deep and run for 300 miles along the Turkish-Syrian border east of the Euphrates. The United States has limited Turkey’s access to a few miles.

American and Turkish troops conducted their first joint patrol of a small zone on Sunday.

But Syria has already called the plan a violation of its sovereignty and Russia emphasized the need to preserve Syria’s territorial integrity. The Kurds oppose the deal but have reportedly pulled back heavy weaponry from part of the border area.

American officials are focused on preventing clashes between Turkish and Kurdish forces.

Because Erdoğan is not getting what he wants he has started to threaten Europe again with an influx of migrants. The EU has given Turkey billions since 2015 to warehouse migrants and prevent another crisis that led to Brexit and the ultra-nationalism of Pegida and Matteo Salvini.

The U.S. is trying to square the circle here. It is likely using airfields in Rojava to conduct "mystery airstrikes" against Iraq, Iran, Syria and Lebanon. The U.S. needs the Kurdish shadow state to keep doing what it is doing, and it can't have a Kurdish shadow state without Kurdish support. So eventually there is going to be some sort of eruption.