Gulf Monarchies Displeased with Trump

The narrative has begun to shift in relation to the attack on the Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia. No longer is the story primarily about the U.S. blaming Iran for the Houthi attack and what the mighty U.S. military response will be; now it is all about U.S. weakness.

David Kirkpatrick and Ben Hubbard's "Attack on Saudi Oil Facilities Tests U.S. Guarantee to Defend Gulf" spotlights this weakness:

That Iran would seek in some way to attack Saudi oil production, though, was hardly unexpected. Experts had predicted for months that the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions against Iran’s oil sales would drive it to lash out against the oil production of Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf States.

The rulers of those Arab states had previously accused President Obama of trying to pull back from the American commitment to the region. They faulted him for negotiating a 2015 deal with Iran to limit its nuclear program in exchange for relief from economic sanctions without further constraining its military or other activities. And the Gulf leaders were outraged when Mr. Obama called off a planned strike against Syria, an Iranian ally, for using chemical weapons against civilians.

Now some prominent voices in the Arab Gulf States accuse Mr. Trump of an even greater betrayal. “Trump, in his response to Iran, is even worse than Obama,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a prominent political scientist in the United Arab Emirates.

Instead of reversing the perceived pullback as Gulf leaders had expected, Mr. Abdulla argued, President Trump let down his Arab partners by failing to respond more forcefully to Iranian aggressions.

The United States has said that Iran was behind naval mines that damaged five oil tankers in the Persian Gulf this spring, and in June Iran boasted of shooting down an American surveillance drone. Yet President Trump did little in retaliation for the tanker attacks and called off a planned airstrike against Iran in response to the downing of the drone.

“His inaction gave a green light to this,” Mr. Abdulla said. “Now an Arab Gulf strategic partner has been massively attacked by Iran — which was provoked by Trump, not by us — and we hear Americans saying to us, you need to defend yourselves!”

“It is an utter failure and utter disappointment in this administration,” he added.

Moon of Alabama thinks the crisis over the Aramco attack has subsided for now, but that another crisis will emerge with the next Houthi attack. Craig Murray thinks it insane that the Western powers have become embroiled in the Sunni-Shia shadow wars.

I am still of the opinion that Trump, who is completely boxed in now because of his maximum pressure campaign against Iran and his pulling out of the JCPOA, will have to respond. Though as a developer Trump screwed many a partner, he needs money to win reelection. He can't alienate the Saudis, Emirates and Adelsons by pulling an Obama Damascus about-face. A cyber-attack fits the bill.