Look for a Massive Cyber-Attack on Iran Rather than a U.S. Missile Strike

The latest from Reuters (see "Saudi Arabia promises concrete proof Iran behind oil strikes") shows how overnight the speculation that the Aramco attack originated from southwest Iran is settling into an official casus belli:

A U.S. official told Reuters the strikes originated in southwestern Iran. Three officials said they involved cruise missiles and drones, indicating a higher degree of complexity and sophistication than initially thought.

The officials did not provide evidence or explain what U.S. intelligence they were using for evaluating the attack that cut 5% of global production.

Yesterday The New York Times presented this as unvarnished speculation:

One theory gaining traction among American officials is that the cruise missiles were launched from Iran and programmed to fly around the northern Persian Gulf through Iraqi air space instead of directly across the gulf where the United States has much better surveillance, one senior official said. In the hours before the attacks, American intelligence detected unusual activity at military bases in southwest Iran that would be consistent with preparations for strikes, another senior American official said.

Pompeo is in Saudi Arabia today to coordinate statements with the House of Saud. It appears a foregone conclusion that there will be a punitive strike on Iran. The question is what kind of strike. According to NYT:

Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper and Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have presented Mr. Trump with an array of military options — presumably both bombing targets such as the missile-launching sites and storage areas as well as covert cyberoperations that could disable or disrupt Iran’s oil infrastructure.

How does Iran respond? As I see it, the U.S. cannot risk a missile strike. There are too many soft targets in the region. The Iranian reply will demand a further response from the U.S., and there goes Trump's reelection.

So a cyber-attack seems likely, particularly if the U.S. is able to replicate what it did in Venezuela earlier this year when it collapsed the national power grid.