Saudi Arabia is in Trouble

The U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton shot down yesterday by Iran had its transponder turned off, according to a Reuters story which quoted the IRGC:

A Revolutionary Guards statement said the drone’s identification transponder had been switched off “in violation of aviation rules and was moving in full secrecy” when it was downed, Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported.

Iran is saying the drone was brought down in its southern province of Hormozgan; the U.S., crying foul, in the international air space over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is to be believed here. A strong tell of U.S. duplicity is Central Command's initial denial that the drone had been shot down.

The New York Times story devoted to the downed drone emphasizes its possible connection to a recent increase in Houthi attacks on Saudi territory:

In Yemen, the Houthis’ television channel reported on Wednesday evening that one of their missiles had hit a water desalination plant in the Saudi city of Jizan, on the Red Sea near the Yemeni border. Saudi officials said the missile had landed near the plant, but did not hit it.

The Houthis have stepped up strikes on Saudi Arabia, which has been accused by international groups of indiscriminate bombing in Yemen, but it is unclear what connection there is between the increase and the regional strife involving Iran. Recently, the Houthis have fired projectiles that damaged a Saudi airport and oil pipelines and caused some injuries.

Jizan, which is also the site of a Saudi military headquarters, has been a frequent target of Houthi attacks with missiles and drones over the course of a war that has become the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

Saudi Arabia and its partner, the United Arab Emirates, have been fighting for four years in a military intervention in Yemen, seeking to roll back a Houthi takeover of much of the country. The Arab monarchies of the Gulf view Iran as their chief regional rival and consider the fight in Yemen a part of a broader struggle against Iran around the region.

In connection with the war in Yemen, news out of the UK is a court ruling that the government broke the law by supplying weapons to Saudi Arabia:

“The decision of the court today does not mean that licenses to export arms to Saudi Arabia must immediately be suspended,” the British judge said.

“It does mean that the UK government must reconsider the matter, must make the necessary assessments about past episodes of concern, allowing for the fact that, in some cases, it will not be possible to reach a conclusion.”

The Campaign Against the Arms Trade welcomed the judgment.

“The Saudi Arabian regime is one of the most brutal and repressive in the world, yet, for decades, it has been the largest buyer of UK-made arms,” said Andrew Smith from the organization. “The arms sales must stop immediately.”

The opposition Labour Party said ministers had wilfully disregarded the evidence that Saudi Arabia was violating international humanitarian law in Yemen, while nevertheless continuing to supply them with weapons.

“What we now need is a full parliamentary or public inquiry to find out how that was allowed to happen, and which Ministers were responsible for those breaches of the law,” said Emily Thornberry, the party’s foreign affairs spokeswoman.

Saudi Arabia is in trouble. The UN is calling for sanctions against the kingdom for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. The Houthis, for years at war with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and all their Western allies, have actually increased their offensive capabilities, regularly penetrating Saudi territory.

The U.S. and its client states have one standard reaction when things aren't going their way. Make the problem bigger. That's what we're seeing now as we climb the ladder to war with Iran.