Covert War Planned for Iran

The morning begins with news that Iranian president Hassan Rouhani has called the Trump administration "mentally retarded" for its new round of sanctions announced yesterday, sanctions which include Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The United States is a nation out of sorts, to put it mildly. It has no clear path forward other than a crack-up. No "Let's get our house back in order" swing to the left appears to be possible.

Take the response to last week's aborted attack on Iran. In a remarkable article by Julian Barnes, Eric Schmitt and Thomas Gibbons-Neff (see "White House Is Pressing for Additional Options, Including Cyberattacks, to Deter Iran") the message coming from Washington, D.C. is that Iran must be punished; it's just that the punishment has to be covert instead of public. Cue the CIA:

Intelligence and military officials have told White House policymakers, including Mr. Trump, that without an additional American response, Iran will continue to destabilize the region.

Some divisions of opinion in the administration remain. A number of senior national security officials agree that further action against Iran is needed, but they are divided about how public that action needs to be.

Officials did not provide specifics about the secret operations under consideration by the White House. But they could include a wide range of activities such as additional cyberattacks, clandestine operations aimed at disabling boats used by Iranians to conduct shipping attacks, and covert operations inside Iran aimed at fomenting more unrest. The United States might also look for ways to divide or undermine the effectiveness of Iranian proxy groups, officials said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive, confidential administration planning.

The C.I.A. has longstanding secret plans for responding to Iranian provocations. Senior officials have discussed with the White House options for expanded covert operations by the agency, as well as plans to step up existing efforts to counter Iran’s efforts, according to current and former officials.

Something like Timber Sycamore seems to be in store for Iran. But that's nothing new. (It is odd to me that the article didn't mention the Ahvaz military parade attack last September.)

The interesting takeaway from the story is the acknowledgement that the global hyper-power is reduced to fighting covert, asymmetrical wars. That's all it can manage at this point.

Trump will not be reelected if he initiates overt war on Iran. The electorate will not tolerate any casualties in this war of choice. The fluidity of the situation is that Trump's funders might demand such war nonetheless.