The [late night] return to the negotiating table was accompanied by a flurry of Russian news agency reports that Mr. Poroshenko had declined at the last minute to accept the outlines of the deal that addressed the independent status of the breakaway areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as the demarcation line meant to form the spine of a demilitarized zone.
The separatists and their Russian patrons want a federal system that gives the breakaway regions independence over their foreign and economic policies, while Mr. Poroshenko had vowed that only some manner of decentralization was acceptable.
In addition, the truce line has shifted since an original deal was signed in September, creating a more cohesive whole from the two breakaway regions. The town of Debaltseve remains a point of contention, with the Ukrainian troops holding it now surrounded.
Much of the negotiations overnight were believed to have been consumed by discussions over each of the 12 points of the protocol agreed last September, and efforts to come up with a working plan on how each might be implemented.
As the peace talks stalled, fighting continued in the disputed areas of southeastern Ukraine.
Pro-Russian rebel forces mounted a counterattack on areas east of the coastal city of Mariupol, trying to retake some of the ground seized in recent days by the volunteer, right-wing Azov Battalion.
Residents of the industrial port on the Sea of Azov, widely expected to be the next target of rebel attacks if the Minsk peace talks do not produce a truce, could hear heavy shelling throughout the morning.
City and military officials said the fighting did not hit civilian areas in the city, but was confined to small villages to the east.Moon of Alabama is calling the new deal "Minsk 2.0" ("Minsk 2.0 Is Just The Pause Button"), which so far seems the accurate way to describe it:
The actual ceasefire will start on February 15. We can expect some heavy fighting up to the last minute as each side will try to consolidate its position. There will surely be different interpretations of the clauses on both sides. It is also questionable if the paramilitary groups, especially on the Ukrainian state side, will follow orders to cease fighting.
The Ukrainian President Poroshenko seems to have severe illusions. As the Russian President Putin mentioned in his short press conference (video) Poroshenko does not believe that his several thousand troops in Debaltsevo are surrounded and cut off. That is ludicrous as even major, though unofficial sources on the Ukrainian side had confirmed the closing of the cauldron two days ago. It seems that the military leaders of the Ukrainian army do not tell him what is really happening in the field. Putin also said that the federalist expect the Ukrainian troops in the cauldron to put down their arms. Will they be given orders to do so or will they be ordered to fight on?
The U.S. inserted itself into the negotiation via the International Monetary Fund which it controls. The IMF announced new $17 billion plan for Ukraine, over four years, two hours before the negotiations ended. That was the U.S. joker telling Poroshenko that he would get enough money to continue fighting and does not have to give up any position. Merkel and Hollande, who tired to wring more concessions out of Poroshenko, must have fumed at that news.
For the moment the Minsk 2.0 plan is welcome relief. This certainly for the people in Donetsk and Luhansk who are under constant Ukrainian artillery fire. The EU countries will be happy that the pressure for new sanctions is off and the U.S. hawks will have to shelf their "arm Ukraine" campaign for now. But the ceasefire does not solve the main questions. The radical constituency of the Ukraine coup government will demand more "punishment" of the east while the people there will, without more representation, reject any demands from the central government.
We can therefore expect that the fighting will stop in the short term only. The violent conflict will likely resume in a month or two or so.Germany and France were successful in at least restoring the Minsk status quo -- a lower level of warfare which allows the junta, with its infusion of money from the IMF, to muddle through. We know from Minsk 1.0 that the earlier ceasefire saved Kiev from total defeat in the Donbass; with three days of fighting left before Minsk 2.0 takes effect, it remains to be seen if the Novorossiyan Armed Forces can take Mariupol from the neo-Nazi Azhov Battalion.
As for talks in Brussels between finance minister Yanis Varoufakis of Greece and the eurogroup a planned announcement apparently was shelved because of a dispute over language. James Kanter reports in "After Talks, Eurozone and Greece Fail to Settle Differences Over Debt":
Over the course of the evening, the ministers had been expected to release a joint statement in which the Greeks pledged to keep most of their previous commitments, and that laid out plans for technical discussions to continue on Friday and during the weekend. But that plan had to be dropped at the end of the meeting after ministers could not agree on additional language, demanded by Greece, on the gravity of social conditions in the country.
The goal was “to successfully conclude the plan” but “it’s not done,” Pierre Gramegna, the finance minister of Luxembourg, told reporters at the end of the meeting.Talks will resume on Monday. Yves Smith, "Greece, Eurozone Ministers at Fundamental Loggerheads," is more pessimistic than the Gray Lady's reporter. She sees no common ground between Greece and the eurogroup and says Greek default by June is the likely outcome at this point.
So in both sets of negotiations -- Minsk and Brussels -- we have no evidence of a dramatic break with the status quo; rather, we have a continuation of the status quo, a muddling through, which is always the safe bet of the dominant powers.
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