New Cold War to Grow Hot Again?

The New Cold War between Russia and the West seems to be heating up again in Ukraine. Judging by the number of stories this morning in the Gray Lady, informational flagship of U.S. unipolarity, something is afoot.

NATO is squawking about a large presence of Russian military aircraft over the Black, Baltic and North Seas as well as the Atlantic. If one reads to the end of the AP story, "Spike Seen in Russian Military Flights," it seems as if this is more a case of Western fear-mongering than a serious new threat:

Brynjar Stordal, spokesman for the operational command of Norway’s armed forces, said Norwegian F-16s intercepted one formation of Bear bombers and tankers west of Norway. The tankers turned back north, he said, but the bombers kept flying south all the way to international airspace west of Portugal and Spain. 

“We’ve had several of these incidents, around 40 a year,” Mr. Stordal said. “What sets this apart from some of the missions we see from the Russian side is the formation was a little bit larger than we usually see, and they went a bit further south than they usually do.”

Hardly the stuff that merits an entire story or a scary headline.

Then there is the David Jolly story, "France Denies It Agreed to Deliver Mistral-Class Warship to Russia," about France overriding the contractor on delivery of the first of two Mistral-class helicopter carrier warships:

On Wednesday, Mr. Rogozin [deputy prime minister of Russia] posted a photograph on Twitter of what appeared to be an invitation letter to Anatoly Isaikin, the head of Rosoboronexport, from Pierre Legros, a senior vice president in DCNS’s surface ships and naval systems division [the contractor] and a member of the company’s executive board. 

In the letter, Mr. Legros thanks Russia’s Defense Ministry for having accepted a modified delivery date and adds, “Accordingly, it is now my pleasure to invite you personally to this ceremony, which will take place on Nov. 14, 2014, in St.-Nazaire.” 

The day’s itinerary includes “transfer of ownership and delivery act signature on board the Vladivostok.” 

DCNS could not immediately be reached for comment on the Twitter post.

So what is going on?

Several things. For one, Yats, Arseniy Yatsenyuk the prime minister who set off the election that was just completed when he tendered his resignation last summer, is improbably poised -- based on the surprising first-place finish of his People's Front party, edging the Bloc Petro Poroshenko 22.2 percent to 21.8 percent -- to return to the Rada as prime minister. David Herszenhorn has the story, "After Ukraine Vote, a New Test: Burying a Legacy of Dysfunctional Politics."

Let's not forget that Yats is the U.S. man in Kiev, the one memorialized in the famous Victoria Nuland cell-phone "Fuck the EU" intercept as State Department property; he's the one that is going to bring the neoliberal wood to Ukrainian behinds as they say goodbye to fuel subsidies and pension benefits in order to align with European "norms."

All I can say about Yats' miraculous victory is to quote a passage from an earlier Herszenhorn story, "Ukraine President Claims Win for Pro-West Parties." The guy, Yuri Boiko, who led a reformed Party of Regions under the name of "the Opposition Bloc," called the recent parliamentary elections "the dirtiest ever."

The exit polls showed one party that is generally regarded as pro-Russian winning enough votes to clear the threshold for forming a faction in the Parliament. That party, the Opposition Bloc, includes some of Mr. Yanukovych’s former allies with strong ties to the embattled east, and it could ultimately prove crucial to future negotiations with Mr. Putin and to resolving the simmering conflict there. 

The party is led by Yuri Boiko, a former deputy prime minister and energy minister under Mr. Yanukovych. Mr. Boiko also has served as energy minister and was head of the Ukrainian national energy company, Naftogaz, from 2002 to 2005, giving him extensive business dealings with Russia. 

The Opposition Bloc was also heavily supported by Sergiy V. Liovochkin, one of Ukraine’s richest businessmen and a former chief of staff to Mr. Poroshenko. Mr. Liovochkin had a falling out with Mr. Yanukoych over the response to the protests last fall and tried to resign. 

After the polls closed, Mr. Boiko thanked voters, but called the elections “the dirtiest ever.” Ukraine has a long history of corruption and ballot fraud.

 I think it highly likely that Yats bribed and ballot-stuffed his way to first place.

This is all happening against the high-stakes poker of the tripartite -- Russia, Ukraine and EU -- gas talks in Brussels, which apparently have collapsed (Gazprom representatives have flown home to Moscow) over Europe's unwillingness to guarantee Ukraine's loan.

As Professor Nicolai Petro explained to RT:

RT: What about gas agreements? Do you think there are still some points that require discussion? 

NP: No, I don’t because all of the aspects of the gas agreement have been negotiated and agreed to except for the amount of the loan that Ukraine needs to pay for its debt without which Russia will not allow gas to flow, without the amount that it ships being paid for in advance. The decision on that loan, at least as President Putin sees it, is entirely in the hands of European Union, how it wants to negotiate that loan. Clearly, Ukraine does not have the money to pay for it. There is a conceptual understanding and agreement that the EU or some private bank within Europe must provide that loan guarantee until the next IMF tranche comes through. So it is basically entirely in the hands of the EU negotiators at this point.

The U.S./EU appears to be back to playing hardball -- NATO squawking about the menacing Russian bear; trade sanctions reaffirmed; Yats back at the helm -- all that needs to happen is for the Minsk ceasefire protocol, always frail, to be completely rescinded. And there is plenty to argue that is about to happen.