Get Ready for Blowback

At the start of this past three-day holiday weekend I was feeling good. I awoke early, did a few loads of laundry, and then got in a four-mile run. All that before 10 AM. I then checked in on Moon of Alabama and the blog entry "Real Or Propaganda? New Weapons To Syrian Mercenaries."

A shift is underway among the "Friends of Syria," a.k.a., Al Qaeda steering committee, to increase military pressure on the Syrian government. With the total collapse of the latest round of peace talks in Geneva, the "Friends of Syria" are staring down at a large plate of crow. Their strategy so far has been a failure. Syria has not collapsed. She is being cracked, but she still stands. And militarily, thanks to Russian-supplied helicopters, she is gaining momentum and regaining territory. Also, and perhaps equally important, Syria is winning the propaganda war. Voters within the Western bloc of the "Friends of Syria," despite a daily pummeling of images of broken children pulled from bomb rubble and words descrying Assad's use of barrel bombs against civilians, are clearly opposed to any military aid for the opposition, which at this point appears to be entirely composed of radical Sunni fundamentalist jihadis.

But after reading the comments on Moon of Alabama, I started to feel ill. "Here we go again," I thought. Rather than accept the fact that its plans have been a failure, the United States and its allies appear to be committed to expanding the violence: manpads to the rebels in a vain hope to neutralize Syrian air power. Here is how Michael Gordon, David Sanger and Eric Schmitt put it this morning in "U.S. Scolds Russia as It Weighs Options on Syrian War":

Mr. Assad’s hold on power has grown over the past year, according to the head of American intelligence. Recognizing that a political settlement is unlikely if he keeps the advantage, administration officials said that Mr. Obama and other Western leaders had dropped their objections to proposals by Saudi Arabia and other countries to funnel more advanced weapons to vetted rebel groups, including portable antiaircraft weapons, often called manpads. 

A secret meeting in Washington last week among the intelligence chiefs from almost all of the countries attempting to oust the Assad government included extensive discussion about how to best provide that new lethal aid to rebel groups, the officials said. The gathering of the top intelligence officials from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Britain, France and the United Arab Emirates, and several others from the 11-nation group known as the Friends of Syria, reflected a belief that the diplomatic track has been exhausted unless Mr. Assad sustains significant military setbacks.

As Gordon et al. note in their story the Saudis have already been supplying manpads:

A fighter from the Damascus suburbs who fled to Beirut, Lebanon, said one of the reasons he left was that the Army of Islam, the rebel group led by Zahran Alloush, had surface-to-air missiles, which he said were a Syrian Army model taken from antiaircraft bases a year ago. But the Army of Islam, which is supported by Saudi private donors, has declined to share its plentiful arms and its cash with other rebel groups, particularly non-Islamist ones. That has complicated efforts to counter Mr. Assad’s forces around Damascus. 

Mr. Obama’s apparent willingness to drop objections to supplying the rebel groups with heavier weapons may simply be an acknowledgment that Saudi Arabia and gulf states that are frustrated with American policy are now prepared to do so anyway, without Washington’s blessing. American officials say they also now have a better sense than they did last year about which groups they can trust to use and secure the weapons.

Like Afghanistan more than thirty years ago, the United States plans on saturating the Levant with portable missiles. Expect to see some of those manpads used in the Sinai and in Iraq. It is all so predictable and stupid. But it does guarantee war, perpetual war.

The U.S. decision to blame Russia for the impasse on Syria seems particularly stupid. Russia will not be hectored to the bargaining table to negotiate away the Syrian state, particularly after Victoria Nuland's performance in Kiev.

And what makes the present course of the Obama administration so dicey is that it is in opposition to its putative base of popular support. If Obama, already listing dangerously in the polls, continues to proceed down this bellicose path he will find the Democratic Party split and vulnerable come November, with the Senate likely returning to Republican control.

The fourth estate is doing its part, banging the war drum by focusing its coverage of the Syrian war primarily on the government's use of barrel bombs against rebel-controlled neighborhoods in Homs and Aleppo. But it will not compel any popular support for greater U.S. involvement. After the disaster of Iraq and Afghanistan, coupled with the devastating impact of the ongoing Great Recession, one would have to be entirely insane to back another belligerent escapade in the Middle East. And while the masses might be confused and uninformed, they are not insane. It is the governing elites, seemingly disconnected from everyday reality, who are insane.